ひろ0723
commented on a stock · Jan 4 07:54
People holding 30-year bonds probably will hurry to sell, maybe.
$Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X Shares ETF (TMF.US)$ With less than 3 weeks until Trump's inauguration, I wonder if people holding 30-year bonds until Trump's inauguration will hurry to sell. Especially TLT, the base ETF of TMF, consists of bonds issued after 2015 with an average yield of about 2.5% until the 2022 rate hike, which is quite low. It seems like they will sell before the price drops due to Trump's inauguration.Looking at the movement of interest rates in the last two weeks, it is common for rates to fall during European hours with economic concerns and rise during US hours. Probably, Americans are determining the right time to sell and buy. Especially considering there were bonds with interest rates below 2% even before COVID-19, they might want to sell before prices drop further after the inauguration. Formal reports on tariff reductions and tax cuts after the inauguration, along with FOMC postponing rate cuts, should lead to a significant increase in interest rates. It will be interesting to see what happens next from here.
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ひろ0723 OP : Yesterday, there was a temporary inverse correlation situation where the dollar fell and interest rates rose between 09:00-10:30 NY time, but I think it was probably the Bank of Japan or a Japanese bank or fund selling government bonds and reverting to yen. Of course, they would sell before it drops.