Personal analysis of the bull market in China this time.

I believe that after the sse composite index experiences a regression and the first wave, it will rise to 3800 points, then the market will have the first pullback. After dropping to 3480 points, it will rise again and maintain a medium to long-term bull market breakthrough of 5000 points.
According to the economic cycle theory of China, the years were 2000-2001, 2007-2008, and 2015. So, if it weren't for the epidemic, our bull market would have started in 2022. But due to the impact of the epidemic and international situation, this cycle has been slightly delayed. Personally, I think this bull market is the result of the economic cycle regression and strong policy support. However, in the long run, I am still not bullish on the Chinese stock market because the Chinese economic situation has not fundamentally improved. The first point is that consumption is still insufficient, the real economy's consumption is still seriously insufficient, relaxing mortgage and loans to small and medium-sized enterprises will not promote a significant increase in national consumption levels. Instead, a large amount of cash has actually flowed into the securities trading market. The second point is that there are still significant challenges in foreign trade and foreign investment. The main purpose of this trilateral joint statement is to use extreme measures to deal with the fragile current state of the Chinese economy, but an excessive approach is prone to break, this drastic measure will definitely have an effect, but the effect may be short-lived, and ultimately will return to the old path.

Therefore, there should be control in investment choices during this bull market, not buying everything for speculation, but selectively investing. You can use some funds for speculation, but keep a core position for value investment. In this bull market, I am bullish on the ai computing power sector. I believe that the decade from 2021 to 2030 is the decade of ai, with computing power as its foundation. Computing power is like the basic energy source a decade ago, holding a similar position from 2021 to 2030 as oil did a decade ago. Currently, the most suitable domestic company for computing power is SH688256 Cambricon, but my preference is for 688008 Montage Technology. Montage Technology Co., Ltd.'s main business is to provide chip-based solutions for cloud computing and artificial intelligence fields; the main products are memory interface chips, Jindai server platforms, and consumer electronics chips. The mid-term report revenue in 2024 was 1.665 billion, net income 0.593 billion, ttm price-to-earnings ratio is 79.41, in the bull market the pe ratio is in a reasonable position, and the stock price still has good growth potential.