Please let us know your opinion.

エスモー : It seems like there is something going on.

株ドリーム : This is just my personal financial estimate. I believe there are many opposing app feedbacks. I am using this platform to organize and take note of my future investments.

1. In the short term, I focus on defense. This is because defense budget increases are planned as part of national policy. Moreover, there is an expectation for an increase in profit margin from the previous 8% to a maximum of 15% through improved orders. In addition, in the event of a change in the situation such as North Korea and Taiwan, public opinion will likely support the defense sector. (Although it is difficult to accept a higher market price than my current acquisition cost, I will continue to buy more defense stocks that I already hold. I am resistant to increasing my acquisition cost...)

2. In the medium to long term, I believe the precious metals sector will grow. Personally, I think there is a possibility of a short-term depreciation of the yen, but in the long term, I maintain a stance that the yen will appreciate and the dollar will weaken compared to the current exchange rate. In the history of a weakening dollar, commodity prices, including precious metals, tend to rise. Therefore, I select stocks in this sector based on a long-term perspective. There are still companies with low Price-to-Book Ratios (PBR) that are actively trying to improve. I am targeting stocks like these. Since the stocks I am targeting have a high level of buy orders on margin, I am carefully determining the timing to buy...


3. By the way, I think the real estate sector as a whole will shrink. However, within the sector, there is clear distinction between winners and losers. Winners are companies that already own or can acquire high-value land desired by affluent individuals, both domestically and internationally. I believe companies that handle this type of land will continue to grow in the long term, regardless of rising interest rates. This is because the motivation for affluent individuals to purchase real estate is not primarily for profit, but rather for value preservation and inheritance tax planning. On the other hand, I refrain from investing in stocks of losers because they will gradually weaken. The reason for this is, as the population decreases, no one will want to buy their properties. It is easy to imagine this situation by thinking of regional cities like Alexandria during the time of Alexander the Great, where the population decline led to a concentration of people in areas with high convenience, while areas without such convenience were left deserted. Applying this to the present day, for example, the cost of maintaining infrastructure such as water pipes. In areas with low convenience and a small population, the social infrastructure maintenance costs borne by each individual continue to increase, and people cannot bear it, so they move away from those areas. I cannot invest in stocks related to real estate in such areas. (Currently, in places like Kumamoto, foreign companies have entered and the workforce and population have increased, but I think this phenomenon is only temporary. In the future, even if new foreign-owned factories come in, I believe their management will strive for efficiency through the introduction of AI-equipped robots and minimize the number of Japanese workers.)

4. The semiconductor sector will undoubtedly continue to grow. However, it is already at a high level, so I will not actively invest in the semiconductor sector. I have focused on the food and health care sectors, and I have missed the semiconductor market.


5. I would like to express my gratitude to Tuna-san for providing this platform. The sectors you listed coincide with the sectors I have been considering, so I couldn't help but contribute my thoughts here.

大負けネコ : Hello.
I noticed it, so please let me participate as a group.
“Personal buying intention” my opinion.

Which is the target “America or Japan”?
It's long because it's unknown. Please forgive me.

① “Semiconductors” ⇒ “American Market” Continues to Grow ️
NVIDIA etc. “AI transformation of operations = monetization” is underway.
There is also a “concern about slowing growth potential” theory in tech, but to be honest, “you can't go against the flow,” right?
Meanwhile, “Japan” ⇒ “separation of light and dark”
“NVIDIA and TSM related” continues to grow ️
A brand right in the middle, such as Advantest.
There are various chips and “other semiconductors.”
Automotive, smartphone, etc. “Even with the same semiconductor, light and dark are separated due to differences in technical levels, etc.”
For example, SUMCO is falling. holder (tears)

② “Defense” ⇒ “Japan and the US are different.”
“America” is opaque.
Does it depend on the November “presidential election”?
If “Harris is elected,” might the Biden administration take over, support for Ukraine, response to China, etc., “grow”?
If “Trump is elected,” foreign military spending reduction = each country will be burdened, so “military industry reduction”?
Lockheed, Boeing, etc., Bimyo.
Japan is “rising over the long term.”
Example: Joint development of the “next main fighter” with England & Italy ⇒ “strengthening defense capabilities independently of each country.”
“Defense budget for next fiscal year is about 8.4 trillion yen” ⇒ Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, IHI, etc. are already “rising.”
I have a few holdings, so I plan to buy more.

③ “Real estate” ⇒ “Various in Japan and the US”.
“America” ⇒ “long-term increase” = rationale “long-term interest rate decline.”
At the end of last year, I bought an “American Real Estate ETF” like a “Japan Real Estate” ⇒ negative for half a year.
“High Dividend ETF” = (XLRE) SPDR Real Estate ETF, yield approximately 3.01%
Was that a +10% “increase” before I knew it?
If “real estate has a low equity ratio” ⇒ “high interest-bearing debt” structure in both Japan and the US, “long-term interest rate/interest rate cuts” will lead to “reduction in interest payment burdens & increase in profit margins.”

Meanwhile, “Japan” ⇒ “ultra-long-term decline”?
Since “Japanese real estate stocks have high yields,” the “value-stock oriented me” holds 3 prime or lower markets, probably 20 or more.
But it's a “mix of stones.”
Owned for 10 years or more = Eagrand, Nippon Escon, etc., and recently purchased Migaro HD, Propast, etc. are “rising or positive brands.”
Meanwhile, “new NISA purchases” strawberries, Mitsui Fudosan, which “grabbed the high price before the split” in March, and First Housing, Esled, Sekisui House, etc. purchased just before the 8/5 crash were “uncovered losses.”
Which brands are positioned as “real estate”? It changes drastically depending on the nature of the business.
For example, Sumitomo Forestry.
It was recognized as a “wooden house using conventional construction methods,” and misunderstood that “it is difficult these days when forestry has declined.”
Even though it is a “real estate,” it is a “building brand.”
Then, “rapid rise ️” from around September ⇒ reason “because private housing construction business is growing in America ️”
“Sumitomo Forestry” “acquired a housing construction company and business performance skyrocketed ️” in America
Sekisui and the like seem to have a similar trend.
Most of the brands listed at the beginning are “new construction = ️ sharp rise in price” due to new condominium construction and used renovation in the “metropolitan area or suburbs of large cities,” and continue to rise “for the wealthy” or “middle and young people who cannot buy new homes” ️
The current situation is that it is not possible to categorize them collectively by “real estate.”
In the “metropolitan area and large cities,” “there was a marked increase in land prices due to the announcement of route prices” earlier.
“Big cities are trending similarly” in rural areas as well.
The long-term interest rate “Japan ⇒ interest rate hike” is probably “not surprising” until the interest rate is around 1.5%.
If the “Nankai Trough Earthquake” were to occur, “large cities along the Pacific coast” would suffer catastrophic damage.
Don't worry, but it's a “yield in the 3% to 5% high dividend”, so hold on ️

last.
④ “Gold” ⇒ “Long-term rise as a risk asset ️”
This is “common to Japan and the US.”
I wasn't interested because “money is an asset that does not generate interest, etc.”
The turning point was a story I heard from “Dai-senpai” at “Dai-senpai's Retirement Benefit Party.”
“I bought a pure gold plate about 10 years ago as an asset to leave to my children” ⇒ “The price of gold at that time was about 1/10 of the current price, and I bought 2 100g x 2 sheets.”
Right now “about 10x = 1g @12 around ,000 yen x 100g = 1.2 million yen per sheet ️”
“Pure gold savings @2 ,000 yen/month” began around May.
Furthermore, in mid-July before “Black Monday,” I felt that “the allocation of my own investment trust investments was too biased towards US stocks,” and the rapid “appreciation of the yen” was dangerous ️, and the “answer requesting the introduction of investment trust products suitable for risk diversification of investment trust management destinations” was “gold (gold asset) investment” ️
Gold futures prices are gradually rising even with “slight unrealized losses” due to purchases when yen depreciated.

It's up to you to think that giving specific examples will be “helpful.”

From the above “perspectives”, we recommend monthly reserve purchases of “safe assets (= risk avoidance), gold.”
Internet securities can “start at 1,000 yen per month (= fee increase to 25 yen)”, and “ETFs and mutual fund products that target money” are OK ️

Excuse me for breaking in

株ドリーム 大負けネコ : 普段、日本株投資に集中している自分にとって、日・米に場合分けしての大負けネコさんの多面的考察、とても参考になりました。ありがとうございました。
　住友林業が北米で好調の兆し有りの話しは耳にしていました。が、同時に、在米の大工さんの感覚と住友林業の製法へのこだわりとの間で摩擦が生じているという話しも耳にしたことがあります。個人的に、この摩擦面の話しが引っかかっていたため、この銘柄にはタッチしていませんでした。上昇トレンドに乗りそびれてしまった感があります。
　引き続き、自分なりに情報収集し、自己責任で投資していきたいと思います。

大負けネコ 株ドリーム : Good evening. My "weakness" is that my comments are too long. Nevertheless, thank you for your "feedback." Thank you very much. I was in the process of "reviewing my portfolio," so I posted a little "intrusively." Just to be clear, my "main battlefield is the Japanese stock market." The American market accounts for approximately 15-30% of my investment assets, so I study diligently every day. Starting this year, I have been giving investment advice to my friends and realizing the importance of "diversified investment=timing & region & commodities & etc." From now on, I need to develop a long-term perspective, such as "10 years in the future until retirement," and view various markets and the overall situation from a neutral standpoint. I am still in the process of studying. Let's strive for "investment for the future" together. Thank you for your continued support.

株ドリーム 大負けネコ : No response is necessary to the comments below.

It's not too long, and I appreciate the thorough explanation. By the way, I tend to leave lengthy comments as well, and I use writing in this community as a way to organize my thoughts and keep notes casually. Please continue to share your thoughts, Oomake Neko-san.

麦マル 株ドリーム : Regardless of whether there is an emergency, I think that the future of humanity cannot be imagined without semiconductor AI in daily life, let alone in the future. Needless to say, everything mentioned by the poster is noteworthy, but it is impossible to abandon a life without smartphones and computers now. 🥹

ポッポちゃん-1120 大負けネコ : よこから失礼します。とても参考になりました！ありがとうございました(៸៸᳐>𖥦<៸៸᳐ )੭ﾞとおりすがりでした。  素人より

株ドリーム 麦マル : 半導体が、今がてっぺんの位置にある…というのではなく、まだまだ上昇トレンドが続く…ということですよね。僕もそう思っていますよ。未来から振り返ってみたら、今はまだまだ低い位置にあったよね…って感じになると思います。

(ここには記さなかったけど、1銘柄だけ、半導体直球ど真ん中で狙いを定めた銘柄あります。まだ買ってないけど…。キャッシュポジションは高めてあるので、為替・チャート両睨みでタイミング見計らっているとこです…。)

(投資は自己責任なので、なるべく具体的な銘柄にはコメントしないことを心掛けていますが、狙っている銘柄は、このコミュニティ内でもそれなりに認知されている銘柄のようです。)

麦マル 大負けネコ : Thank you for the wonderful explanations and comments 🥹. To be honest, I always feel that it is really difficult to generalize about the Japanese and American markets as a whole .

I believe it is necessary to carefully examine individual stocks, various indexes, and funds, and personally choose, trade, and hold them with individual responsibility .

I will save and refer to your insights in the future for reading and as a reference. Thank you .