Please let us know your opinion.

エスモー : It seems like there is something going on.

株ドリーム : It's just a personal prediction. I think there are plenty of objections. I just used this place as an organizer and memorandum for my future investments.

1. Defense in the short term. This is because defense budget increases are planned in the future as a national policy. Moreover, it has been decided that profit margin improvement orders have been received from the MAX profit margin of 8% up until now to the MAX 15%. Also, depending on changes in the situation such as the North Korea/Taiwan emergency, public opinion will also be boosted. (Let's buy more defense stocks we already own, even if the market price is slightly higher than our own acquisition unit price, which is in a pretty low position. There is resistance to the acquisition unit price going up, but...)

2. I think the precious metals sector will grow in the medium to long term. Personally, it is possible that yen depreciation may occur in the short term, but in the long run, my stance is that the yen will be higher and the dollar will be lower than it is now. Since commodity prices, including precious metals, tend to rise in history when the dollar depreciates, stocks are selected based on a long-term perspective. There are companies whose PBR is still low, and we aim for stocks that are seriously working to improve this. The target stocks have a lot of credit left over, so they carefully determine when to buy...


3. By the way. I think the real estate sector as a whole will shrink. However, if you look inside the sector, the light and dark are clearly divided between the winning team and the group that doesn't. The winning companies will continue to grow not only in the short term, but also in the long term.
The winning team referred to here is a company that already owns or can purchase land with high asset value that the wealthy at home and abroad want. I think companies that handle this kind of land will grow over the long term regardless of interest rate increases. This is because the motivation for the wealthy to buy real estate is that rather than making money, the meaning of value preservation/inheritance tax measures has become stronger, and they buy regardless of yield.

On the other hand, the losing group's stocks will weaken as much as possible, so keep your hands off them. This is because population decline is progressing, and no one is buying it. It's easy to imagine if you think of regional cities in various places such as Alexandria during Alexander the Great's time, but as population decline progresses, the population is concentrated in highly convenient areas. It is said that people will not live in areas that are not there. If you think about it in modern times, for example, infrastructure maintenance costs such as water pipes. In areas where convenience is difficult and the population is shrinking, social infrastructure maintenance costs borne by each person are getting bigger and bigger, and people are leaving because they can't stand it. I can't get my hands on brands that handle real estate in such areas.
(Foreign-affiliated companies, such as TSMC in Kumamoto, are rapidly entering, and the number of workers and population is increasing, but I think this is the only phenomenon now. (In the future, even if new foreign-owned factories are introduced, I think their management will promote efficiency improvements by introducing robots equipped with AI, etc., and minimize Japanese workers.)

4. Semiconductors of course stretch. However, the current level is already at a high position, and they don't touch the semiconductor fastball right in the middle. Having concentrated on the food/healthcare sector, I had already missed the semiconductor market.


5. I would like to thank Toona for making use of this opportunity. The sectors you listed matched exactly what I had in mind, so I just wrote them down.

大負けネコ : Hello.
I noticed it, so please let me participate as a group.
“Personal buying intention” my opinion.

Which is the target “America or Japan”?
It's long because it's unknown. Please forgive me.

① “Semiconductors” ⇒ “American Market” Continues to Grow ️
NVIDIA etc. “AI transformation of operations = monetization” is underway.
There is also a “concern about slowing growth potential” theory in tech, but to be honest, “you can't go against the flow,” right?
Meanwhile, “Japan” ⇒ “separation of light and dark”
“NVIDIA and TSM related” continues to grow ️
A brand right in the middle, such as Advantest.
There are various chips and “other semiconductors.”
Automotive, smartphone, etc. “Even with the same semiconductor, light and dark are separated due to differences in technical levels, etc.”
For example, SUMCO is falling. holder (tears)

② “Defense” ⇒ “Japan and the US are different.”
“America” is opaque.
Does it depend on the November “presidential election”?
If “Harris is elected,” might the Biden administration take over, support for Ukraine, response to China, etc., “grow”?
If “Trump is elected,” foreign military spending reduction = each country will be burdened, so “military industry reduction”?
Lockheed, Boeing, etc., Bimyo.
Japan is “rising over the long term.”
Example: Joint development of the “next main fighter” with England & Italy ⇒ “strengthening defense capabilities independently of each country.”
“Defense budget for next fiscal year is about 8.4 trillion yen” ⇒ Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Kawasaki Heavy Industries, IHI, etc. are already “rising.”
I have a few holdings, so I plan to buy more.

③ “Real estate” ⇒ “Various in Japan and the US”.
“America” ⇒ “long-term increase” = rationale “long-term interest rate decline.”
At the end of last year, I bought an “American Real Estate ETF” like a “Japan Real Estate” ⇒ negative for half a year.
“High Dividend ETF” = (XLRE) SPDR Real Estate ETF, yield approximately 3.01%
Was that a +10% “increase” before I knew it?
If “real estate has a low equity ratio” ⇒ “high interest-bearing debt” structure in both Japan and the US, “long-term interest rate/interest rate cuts” will lead to “reduction in interest payment burdens & increase in profit margins.”

Meanwhile, “Japan” ⇒ “ultra-long-term decline”?
Since “Japanese real estate stocks have high yields,” the “value-stock oriented me” holds 3 prime or lower markets, probably 20 or more.
But it's a “mix of stones.”
Owned for 10 years or more = Eagrand, Nippon Escon, etc., and recently purchased Migaro HD, Propast, etc. are “rising or positive brands.”
Meanwhile, “new NISA purchases” strawberries, Mitsui Fudosan, which “grabbed the high price before the split” in March, and First Housing, Esled, Sekisui House, etc. purchased just before the 8/5 crash were “uncovered losses.”
Which brands are positioned as “real estate”? It changes drastically depending on the nature of the business.
For example, Sumitomo Forestry.
It was recognized as a “wooden house using conventional construction methods,” and misunderstood that “it is difficult these days when forestry has declined.”
Even though it is a “real estate,” it is a “building brand.”
Then, “rapid rise ️” from around September ⇒ reason “because private housing construction business is growing in America ️”
“Sumitomo Forestry” “acquired a housing construction company and business performance skyrocketed ️” in America
Sekisui and the like seem to have a similar trend.
Most of the brands listed at the beginning are “new construction = ️ sharp rise in price” due to new condominium construction and used renovation in the “metropolitan area or suburbs of large cities,” and continue to rise “for the wealthy” or “middle and young people who cannot buy new homes” ️
The current situation is that it is not possible to categorize them collectively by “real estate.”
In the “metropolitan area and large cities,” “there was a marked increase in land prices due to the announcement of route prices” earlier.
“Big cities are trending similarly” in rural areas as well.
The long-term interest rate “Japan ⇒ interest rate hike” is probably “not surprising” until the interest rate is around 1.5%.
If the “Nankai Trough Earthquake” were to occur, “large cities along the Pacific coast” would suffer catastrophic damage.
Don't worry, but it's a “yield in the 3% to 5% high dividend”, so hold on ️

last.
④ “Gold” ⇒ “Long-term rise as a risk asset ️”
This is “common to Japan and the US.”
I wasn't interested because “money is an asset that does not generate interest, etc.”
The turning point was a story I heard from “Dai-senpai” at “Dai-senpai's Retirement Benefit Party.”
“I bought a pure gold plate about 10 years ago as an asset to leave to my children” ⇒ “The price of gold at that time was about 1/10 of the current price, and I bought 2 100g x 2 sheets.”
Right now “about 10x = 1g @12 around ,000 yen x 100g = 1.2 million yen per sheet ️”
“Pure gold savings @2 ,000 yen/month” began around May.
Furthermore, in mid-July before “Black Monday,” I felt that “the allocation of my own investment trust investments was too biased towards US stocks,” and the rapid “appreciation of the yen” was dangerous ️, and the “answer requesting the introduction of investment trust products suitable for risk diversification of investment trust management destinations” was “gold (gold asset) investment” ️
Gold futures prices are gradually rising even with “slight unrealized losses” due to purchases when yen depreciated.

It's up to you to think that giving specific examples will be “helpful.”

From the above “perspectives”, we recommend monthly reserve purchases of “safe assets (= risk avoidance), gold.”
Internet securities can “start at 1,000 yen per month (= fee increase to 25 yen)”, and “ETFs and mutual fund products that target money” are OK ️

Excuse me for breaking in

株ドリーム 大負けネコ : 普段、日本株投資に集中している自分にとって、日・米に場合分けしての大負けネコさんの多面的考察、とても参考になりました。ありがとうございました。
　住友林業が北米で好調の兆し有りの話しは耳にしていました。が、同時に、在米の大工さんの感覚と住友林業の製法へのこだわりとの間で摩擦が生じているという話しも耳にしたことがあります。個人的に、この摩擦面の話しが引っかかっていたため、この銘柄にはタッチしていませんでした。上昇トレンドに乗りそびれてしまった感があります。
　引き続き、自分なりに情報収集し、自己責任で投資していきたいと思います。

大負けネコ 株ドリーム : Good evening. My "weakness" is that my comments are too long. Nevertheless, thank you for your "feedback." Thank you very much. I was in the process of "reviewing my portfolio," so I posted a little "intrusively." Just to be clear, my "main battlefield is the Japanese stock market." The American market accounts for approximately 15-30% of my investment assets, so I study diligently every day. Starting this year, I have been giving investment advice to my friends and realizing the importance of "diversified investment=timing & region & commodities & etc." From now on, I need to develop a long-term perspective, such as "10 years in the future until retirement," and view various markets and the overall situation from a neutral standpoint. I am still in the process of studying. Let's strive for "investment for the future" together. Thank you for your continued support.

株ドリーム 大負けネコ : No response is necessary to the comments below.

It's not too long, and I appreciate the thorough explanation. By the way, I tend to leave lengthy comments as well, and I use writing in this community as a way to organize my thoughts and keep notes casually. Please continue to share your thoughts, Oomake Neko-san.

麦マル 株ドリーム : Regardless of whether there is an emergency, I think that the future of humanity cannot be imagined without semiconductor AI in daily life, let alone in the future. Needless to say, everything mentioned by the poster is noteworthy, but it is impossible to abandon a life without smartphones and computers now. 🥹

ポッポちゃん-1120 大負けネコ : よこから失礼します。とても参考になりました！ありがとうございました(៸៸᳐>𖥦<៸៸᳐ )੭ﾞとおりすがりでした。  素人より

株ドリーム 麦マル : 半導体が、今がてっぺんの位置にある…というのではなく、まだまだ上昇トレンドが続く…ということですよね。僕もそう思っていますよ。未来から振り返ってみたら、今はまだまだ低い位置にあったよね…って感じになると思います。

(ここには記さなかったけど、1銘柄だけ、半導体直球ど真ん中で狙いを定めた銘柄あります。まだ買ってないけど…。キャッシュポジションは高めてあるので、為替・チャート両睨みでタイミング見計らっているとこです…。)

(投資は自己責任なので、なるべく具体的な銘柄にはコメントしないことを心掛けていますが、狙っている銘柄は、このコミュニティ内でもそれなりに認知されている銘柄のようです。)

麦マル 大負けネコ : Thank you for the wonderful explanations and comments 🥹. To be honest, I always feel that it is really difficult to generalize about the Japanese and American markets as a whole .

I believe it is necessary to carefully examine individual stocks, various indexes, and funds, and personally choose, trade, and hold them with individual responsibility .

I will save and refer to your insights in the future for reading and as a reference. Thank you .