Thinking deeply φ( •ω•́ )✨
Regarding ViX, I believe that the gradual unwinding of short positions taken when the stock market dropped at the beginning of August, causing ViX to spike above 30, has maintained high levels up to now. I think the market's uncertainty is reflected in ViX, not the other way around. I believe that ViX's rise has influenced the market, so I consider it to be artificially created volatility. Considering that ViX is expected to normally decrease by entering November, why is the unwinding of short positions progressing?
To avoid the temporary rise in ViX due to the presidential election results, or rather than going after short positions from the current ViX levels, I imagine that the unwinding of shorts is being done with the potential to obtain returns by transitioning to risk assets such as stocks.
Taking advantage of the period when the market becomes anxious before the presidential election, raising the ViX to stoke anxiety and lower equity indices can create a perfect scenario for switching. The same applies to interest rates, as there are no dark clouds over the macroeconomy and no signs of an economic downturn. Based on the judgment that equities are more attractive than bonds under these conditions, preparing to move funds from bonds to equities by selling bonds, causing yield increases, and simultaneously stressing equities with ViX.
I have been thinking quite seriously about this, so please take it as a reference.
Over the past two weeks, the VIX would have risen due to the unwinding of short positions, which could serve as data supporting the fact that equity indices have not had as much impact on maintaining the high VIX levels as initially thought.
Especially yesterday, the VIX rose significantly, but significant short-covering is taking place.
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182544027 : Too smart! I learned a lot
tena0623 : I felt uneasy about the VIX rising and the stock prices also rising, but this theory is convincing.Every weekend, we receive very well-thought-out information disclosure, and I am grateful ️