Powell: FOMC is 'moving forward carefully' as risks around rates becoming more balanced

"It would be premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease. We are prepared to tighten policy further if it becomes appropriate to do so."

Comments from the Fed chair

It's premature to say that mon pol is restrictive enough
Fed will raise rates if needed to lower inflation
Fed is making rate decisions meeting by meeting
Uncertainty over economic outlook is 'unusually elevated'
Fed funds range well into restrictive territory
Fed has made considerable progress in lowering inflation
Welcomes recent softening in inflation data
Need to see more progress on lowering inflation to 2%
Wage growth still high but moderating to more sustainable levels
Unemployment up but still historically low
As the demand- and supply-related effects of the pandemic continue to unwind, uncertainty about the outlook for the economy is unusually elevated

Powell isn't saying that rate hikes are done, but he's close. The market is pricing in 119 bps in cuts next year, which is the same as before he spoke. Where it really gets interesting now is March, where there's a 60% chance of a cut priced in -- that's aggressive. $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$

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efficentupup

True and timely

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