Prediction of the market

I think whether the market goes up or down still mainly depend on the anticipation of rates cut. Right now the market is betting on the first cut occurring in Sept then 40pts or so cut in total by the end of the year. So will the core CPI continue to drop? For the EU and UK this is quite sure since they don't have as rigorous an economies as the US. A high rate will very likely send their seasonal GDP growth into the minus region. And if they let it happen, then the economy constriction will get stronger and stronger and quickly evolves into a death spiral. So their central banks have no choice but to lower the rates which I expect to take place around August (a better time might be July but due to bureaucracy they have to wait to see a negative GDP growth before some old heads can be convinced).

Now the question is: What will happen if the EU & UK cut rates while FED continues to hold it a 5.33%? What I can think of are:

More capital will flow from the EU to the US. Sure this is the most undesirable thing for the former but their impending problem is how to keep the GDP growth in the positive region and have to give up the ambition of developing the economy faster. For the US, a flow-in funds surely will further boost its already unprecedented booming economy, which consequently leads to an even later cut of rates.

So, my prediction is the market will first make its move based on the new CPI data. And after that the news of the EU rates cut will get it to slump.

My strategy: Right now I am using covered call that takes up 80% of my funds. Once the signs emerge, I'll invest into buying put or selling put depending on which one I will find a better deal in. And when the market hits the bottom, it will be the time for me to move from short to long. Again whether to buy call or sell put depends on the profitability & the relative certainty of the deal.