Financial estimates for the coming weeks
Looking ahead to next week's financial estimates, first of all, in terms of results, the medium-term trend remains upward, while in the short term, we are following a downside scenario. ↓
As for the patterns, I am considering two scenarios, but in any case, around 11/10, I think the bottom will be slightly above 5500.
⭐️Pattern 1 (green line image)
The interest rates are solidly rising and the VIX is resisting decline, caution ahead of earnings from big tech companies leads to a downside start on Monday. A (weak) three peaks top pattern is formed, with continued caution and lack of positive news, focusing on technicals targeting around 5650-5680.
The rebound starts on 29th-30th (if you want to name it, good earnings from AMZN, GOOGL, MSFT, etc.).
Expectations of rate cuts recede after the PCE, unemployment rate as expected, trend of diminishing rate cut expectations remains unchanged, at this point FEDWATCH shows about 30-40% chance of no rate cut... this leads to a rise in bond yields again, stock prices fall.
Regardless of AAPL earnings on the 4th, caution for the next day's presidential election leads to refraining from buying, on the 5th, the cautious mood continues as it is.
Around the 6th to 12th, a storm of factual selling, or a big storm of rebalancing.
The bottom is slightly above 5500 at the beginning of next week.
⭐️ Pattern 2 (image orange line)
Yields, VIX both in congestion, stock prices on a gradual downside with decreasing volume.
Later, it's the same as Pattern 1. Haha
The difference is that the right peak of the triple bottom is said to be forming from now on.
In the case of an increase, well... first, if the bond yield doesn't stop rising...
With a PE ratio of about 21 or 22 times, it seems that there is not much room for growth, so I think the limit for this month would be around 5900...
It's geopolitical risk, but I think it will probably continue to move as if nothing happened at the beginning of next week. The bond market is calm. I think the reversal of VIX is due to interest rates, not geopolitical risks 💡.
As for cryptocurrencies... I wonder if altcoins will be tested again 🤔.
BTC is surprisingly resilient! If we were to compare BTC to stocks, it would have the volatility of a small-cap growth stock. Despite the shaky situation, BTC's resilience compared to altcoins is likely what's making a difference in the year-to-date performance! However, I must emphasize that this is just my financial estimate. I believe we may see a bottom around 62,000 to 61,200 by the end of early November. By the way, even if it breaks that, it should be fine, but breaking below 59,000 is a bit scary... Ideally, bottoming out at the current 66,000 is the best scenario, but I find it risky to go long on that.
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ぽんちゃみ : Will Solana also push down?![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
The idea of standing out seems to come to mind,
If materials gather, I want to go long.
普通のエビ OP ぽんちゃみ : Hmm... As investment advice is prohibited, this is just my perspective.
I'm now entering my second short position for crying out loud.
If I were to take a long-term view with no position, I would consider going long if SOL and BTC surpassed their recent highs, but I'm afraid of the timing.
The scenario of a rally on the day of the presidential election just doesn't come to mind for me...