TSLA
Tesla
-- 355.840 NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 138.850 INTC
Intel
-- 23.600 NBIS
NEBIUS
-- 44.490 PLTR
Palantir
-- 119.160 
Press Conference Reflections: Market Sentiment and Strategic Shifts
Today’s press conference from the Chinese government, led by Finance Minister Lan Fo’an, aimed to revive market confidence, but the announcements seem to have fallen short of expectations. While they introduced debt issuance measures and mentioned support for local governments and banks, the details were vague, and there was no significant new stimulus to boost consumer spending. The absence of concrete timelines or actionable steps has left many investors disappointed.
Upon further reflection, it’s clear that China’s internal challenges and external dependencies play a key role in limiting the government’s ability to inject large-scale liquidity. Internally, a major factor is the “Beggar Gang” issue—a growing segment of young, disillusioned individuals who have taken on debt to invest in stocks with little to no intention of repayment. Many of these individuals work in delivery services, ride-hailing, or factories, and with little to lose, they have embraced risky financial behavior. Their logic is simple: if they win, they profit; if they lose, they default. This behavior has put additional pressure on China’s financial system, restricting the government’s ability to act decisively.
Externally, the Fed’s cautious approach to rate cuts limits China’s room to maneuver. If the US slows its rate-cutting pace, China faces the risk of capital flight if it eases monetary policy too aggressively. This balancing act between maintaining liquidity and containing risks constrains the government from implementing bold stimulus measures, which in turn affects investor sentiment.
Given these factors, my earlier optimism may have been premature. The short-term outlook for Chinese stocks and Hong Kong markets appears challenging. The market has already priced in expectations for robust stimulus, and today’s announcements did not deliver enough to sustain the rally. Many domestic investors have already suffered significant losses, further dampening sentiment. With policy momentum lacking, a correction in Chinese and Hong Kong equities seems likely before a more sustainable recovery can take shape.
---
Adjusting My Strategy
Recognizing the risks, I decided to adjust my positions ahead of the market’s reaction. Yesterday, I sold my YINN call options at $3.10 per contract, reducing my exposure and minimizing potential losses. Though I initially bought them at $12 per contract, the sale was more about cutting losses than accepting defeat—after all, this capital came from earlier profits. While it may appear as a loss, I see it as locking in gains and treating it as a valuable lesson in risk management.
Recognizing the risks, I decided to adjust my positions ahead of the market’s reaction. Yesterday, I sold my YINN call options at $3.10 per contract, reducing my exposure and minimizing potential losses. Though I initially bought them at $12 per contract, the sale was more about cutting losses than accepting defeat—after all, this capital came from earlier profits. While it may appear as a loss, I see it as locking in gains and treating it as a valuable lesson in risk management.
Looking ahead, I expect Chinese and Hong Kong markets to face near-term challenges as investor confidence remains low. Until clearer policy announcements emerge with specific timelines and detailed action plans, we are unlikely to see a sustained rally. If a bull market does resume, it will likely take the form of a slow and steady recovery rather than the sharp, euphoric surges we saw during China’s Golden Week rally.
---
Next Steps
Given the current environment, my strategy will shift toward lower-risk options plays to capitalize on the market's volatility without overexposing myself. I’ll be closely monitoring Monday’s market movements and refining my approach to align with the evolving sentiment. While I’m not shorting Chinese equities, I’ll look for other ways to hedge risks and recover losses through well-timed trades.
Given the current environment, my strategy will shift toward lower-risk options plays to capitalize on the market's volatility without overexposing myself. I’ll be closely monitoring Monday’s market movements and refining my approach to align with the evolving sentiment. While I’m not shorting Chinese equities, I’ll look for other ways to hedge risks and recover losses through well-timed trades.
In conclusion, China’s economic recovery is far from straightforward. The combination of internal financial constraints and external economic pressures will continue to challenge policy execution. Until investor confidence is restored with concrete policy actions, I anticipate a cautious market environment with potential downside risks. I'll share further updates on my strategy as new developments unfold. Stay tuned for my next post detailing how I navigate this shifting landscape.
---
If you liked this post, don’t forget to hit like and follow for more updates on my trading journey and thoughts!
Unsupported feature.
Please use the mobile app.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
Long-term value investor, focused on identifying undervalued stocks through thorough market analysis and fundamentals.
476
Followers
6
Following
1039
Visitors
Follow
Discussing
Trump 2.0 Era: How will global markets evolve?
🎙️Discussion: 1. How will tariff policies affect the movement of key assets such as U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin? 2. Given this context,
Moo Live
Jan 23 16:54
MicroStrategy Q4 2024 earnings conference call
晴天穿雨衣ccs : You do not understand the process from formulation to implementation of China's policies. The speech by the Minister of Finance itself is an attitude, and the specific scale is not disclosed because it needs to be submitted to the National People's Congress for deliberation and approval. It would be unconstitutional to disclose the numbers before submission to the National People's Congress.
blessings u : I think you also agree that the Chinese government will implement a fiscal support policy. This is a clear shift in the general direction from a fiscal austerity policy to a fiscal expansion policy. As for details, the injection of funds, etc., is not an issue.
Alex Wong Cian Yih OP 晴天穿雨衣ccs : I understand the process behind China’s policy-making, and I know the announcements need to pass through the National People's Congress for approval. However, the problem lies in how the information was presented. Without specific figures, timelines, or concrete details, it’s hard for the market to maintain confidence. This vagueness makes it difficult for investors to set expectations, which is why we’re seeing the negative sentiment right now.
Alex Wong Cian Yih OP blessings u : I’m still optimistic about Chinese and Hong Kong stocks, but we need to see the concrete implementation of the announced policies first. Once the market adjusts to the changes, we can better gauge the real impact. At the moment, though, the lack of clarity is shaking investor confidence, making it hard for the market to surge again. I don’t expect another rapid rally soon; instead, I see a more stable, gradual recovery—a “slow bull” trend taking shape as things settle.
blessings u Alex Wong Cian Yih OP : 从另一方面来说 当年四万亿财政政策 由温总理宣布 而现在呢 阶别层次太低了 显示内部主导地位的 还没有达到胡温 的智慧
Ehsan230 晴天穿雨衣ccs : ...