[Preview] Does the US September CPI announced tonight's deceleration forecast suggest the end of the Fed's interest rate hike cycle?

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics21:30 on 2023/10/12 (Thu) Japan timeuponUS Consumer Price Index (CPI) for SeptemberIt is scheduled to be announced. After 2 months of continuous acceleration, analystsWill the inflation rate slow down in SeptemberExpected.

According to Bloomberg, September CPI was compared to the same month last year3.6%(3.7% last time), core CPI4.1%It is expected to drop to (4.3% same). Compared to the previous month, both overall CPI and core CPI are expected to be 0.3% (August recorded 0.6% and 0.3%, respectively).

House prices account for the largest share in the service sector.There is a high possibility that the decline in housing and rental rates will accelerate in September. Generally, rental fees rise from spring to summer and fall from fall to winter. However, according to Apartment List, the off-season began one month earlier this year, followed by a 0.1% drop in rents in August, and a 0.5% drop in September. This is a 1.2% drop compared to the previous year.

The cooling of the housing market has spread across the United States, and rents in September fell month-on-month in 85 of the 100 largest US cities.

Fluctuations in rents are greatly influenced by the balance between the number of vacancies and the number of people who wish to move in. In 2021 and 2022, there was an overwhelming shortage of vacancies, so rents rose drastically,Currently it's the oppositeIt is. According to the Apartment List index, the vacancy rate has been rising for 23 consecutive months, and although the monthly rate of increase has slowed slightly, it is above the pre-pandemic average to 6.4%.

Mannheim used car price indexAccording to the report, seasonally adjusted prices for major market segments in September were compared to the same month last year3.9% declineThen, it fell below the same month last year again. The average price before adjustment was compared to the same month last year5.4% declineIt became.

According to Mannheim, the number of used car retail sales in September compared to August10% reductionI did. The average price of a used car in the past 4 weeks0.7% declineI did it.

CarGurusAccording to data, used car prices in the past 30 days0.35% slight declineAnd compared to the same period last year5.78% decreaseI did it.

The FAO Food Price Index for September compiled by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) was 126.3 points, up 1.3 points (1.0%) from August, but down 21.6 points (14.6%) from the same month last year. The rise this month was driven by a 5.3% increase in international coarse-grain prices. The rise in barge fares due to a drop in water levels in the Mississippi River in the United States was one reason for the rise in grain prices, but thistemporary factorsIt's just that.

The rice import price index is scheduled to be announced this Friday. Bloomberg predicts that the import price index will rise 0.6-0.7% from the previous month and rise from 0.5% in August.

Also, on Friday, the University of Michigan will announce the expected inflation rate for 1 year and 5 years. The previous month, the 5-year inflation forecast fell to 2.8%, and the 1-year inflation forecast fell to 3.2%.

Since long-term bond yields continue to rise in the US bond market, the US Federal Reserve (Fed)There is a possibility that the historic interest rate hike cycle will end in an untimely manner. For the past few days, long-term interest rates have remained close to the recent high level, according to Fed executives,If the inflation rate continues to decelerate, there is a possibility that interest rate hikes will endI'm hinting at it.

The US employment statistics for September announced last FridayStronger or weakerDespite the fact that it becameInterest rate hike observations have declined compared to 1 month agoI'm doing it. The latest non-farm payroll report could be misleading, as data was duplicated due to an increase in part-time workers.

The sharp drop in crude oil prices in the first week of October ended the upward trend of the previous two months.The inflation rate to be announced in November means there is a high possibility that it will fall further. Furthermore,The conflict between Israel and Palestine is raising concerns about economic fragility. Especially considering that term spreads are shrinking rapidly, there is a high possibility that the market is intensifying concerns about whether a recession will actually come.

According to CMEFedWatch, what is the probability of interest rate hikes in November21.1%What is the probability of interest rate hikes in December35.78%The market is predicting that.