Preview: December US employment statistics are scheduled to be announced on the evening of the 10th. Is speculation about a rate cut reigniting?

moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Jan 9 14:35

The number of non-farm payroll employees in the US in DecemberScheduled for 10:30 PM Japan time on the 10th (Friday)announcement is expected. Market expectations forThe number of non-farm payroll employees in the US for Decemberisis expected to increase by 0.154 million from the previous month.、Unemployment RateisExpected to remain flat at 4.2%.in 1977:Average hourly wageisExpected growth of 0.4%, in line with the previous period.。

Preview: December US employment statistics are scheduled to be announced on the evening of the 10th. Is speculation about a rate cut reigniting?

The number of non-farm payroll employees in the previous period (November) isincreased by 0.227 million people、exceeded market expectations of an increase of 0.202 million people、the largest growth in the past 6 monthsbecame. The number of non-farm employees in September was revised upward from 0.223 million to 0.255 million, and in October from 0.012 million to 0.036 million. The total number of employees in September and October after the revision increased by 0.056 million from the original. Last month's US employment statistics showed a strong growth in the number of non-farm employees、concerns about the slowdown in labor demand have eased。the US job market has regained its health。

Barclays economists expect that in December 2024, the non-agricultural sector will see an increase of 0.15 million employees compared to the previous month, falling below the 0.22 million increase in November. This would result in a slower growth from the 3-month average of 0.13 million 8000 people to the 0.17 million 3000 people increase up to November.

However, Barclays' team believes that this slowdown is unlikely to push up the unemployment rate significantly, and the unemployment rate is expected to remain at the same 4.2% as in November. The data at the end of 2024 was impacted by hurricanes and labor disputes, but the numbers for December are expected to indicate a return to a normal pace from the distortion of previous monthly data.

According to analysts, US employers may continue to reduce hiring in December.While employment growth is slowing down, it is still considered a strong ending to the year.Economists predict that this trend will continue into 2025.The increase in job openings in November exceeded expectations in the US, suggesting a slowdown in the labor market despite a decrease in hiring.is in effect.

Announced by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics
Analysts at Barclays expect this trend to continue into 2025.In November, the JOLT job openings were 8.098 million.、It increased from 7.839 million in October.、Unexpectedly recovered to the 8 million level in May.It is believed to be a result of increased employment in the service industry ahead of the year-end and New Year holidays.

The job openings rate reached 4.8%, the highest level since June. Some signs of slowdown are also observed. The voluntary resignation rate, seen as an expression of confidence in the labor market, decreased again from 2.1% in the previous month to 1.9%. The number of voluntary resignations decreased to 3.065 million people, the lowest since August 2020 just after the economic lockdown due to the pandemic.

The hiring rate also decreased from 3.4% to 3.3%. The number of hires decreased by 0.3 million people in a year to 5.269 million people. The employment reduction rate remained flat at 1.1%. With an increase in job openings, the number of job openings per unemployed person increased to 1.133, up from 1.122 in October. However, it still remains below the pre-pandemic level of 1.2 per person.

In November, the USA ADP Employment Statistics increased by 0.122 million people, showing a slowdown in growth and falling below expectations, sparking speculation of a rate cut.
Announced on the 8th.According to the December national ADP Employment Report.、The number of non-farm employment increased by 0.122 million people, showing a slower growth than the 0.146 million increase in November. It fell below the market expectation of 0.139 million increase.、The growth slowed more than expected, with an increase of 0.122 million people compared to November's 0.146 million increase. It was below the market expectation of 0.139 million increase.。It has reached the lowest level since August.。

In terms of industry, Mainland Education, Veterinary Services, Construction, and Leisure & Hospitality sectors significantly increased, while Manufacturing, Natural Resources & Mining, and Jobs & Business Services saw a decrease in the number of employees.

The number of new initial jobless insurance claims in the United States last week was 0.201 million.、It fell below the market estimate of an increase of 0.215 million people.、It has reached the lowest level since February last year.。

According to Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP, the US labor market continued to relax labor demand in December last year, resulting in a slowdown in both employment and wage growth.

Due to the increase in job postings and the better-than-expected ISM non-manufacturing data, the short-term financial market has factored in one interest rate cut per year and a further slowdown in the pace of rate cuts. However, a moderate slowdown in employment has also been indicated.If the employment statistics show a greater deceleration than expected, the outlook for interest rate cuts later this year may strengthen further, potentially leading to selling pressure on the dollar.。

When making decisions on interest rate cuts after 2025, Fed officials will need to balance this trend with concerns about new inflation.

On the 8th, Fed Governor Waller stated that the inflation rate is expected to continue to decline even in 2025, and although at an uncertain pace, the Fed should be able to implement further rate cuts.

Source: Bloomberg, Fisco, Reuters, Dow Jones
This article utilizes auto-translation in some parts.
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