[Preview] US employment statistics for June are scheduled to be announced tomorrow night Is the scenario of interest rate cuts true in September?

Number of people employed in the non-farm sector in June in the USIsFriday (5th) at 09:30 p.m. Japan timeIt is scheduled to be announced on. At the market, rice in JuneThe number of people employed in the non-farm sector is expected to increase by 0.189 million, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.0%It's been done.

“The data shows that the normalization of labor supply and demand is progressing,” Rubila Falouki, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, pointed out. “From a policy perspective, the Federal Reserve (FRB)'s future challenge is to maintain interest rates at a level that not only suppresses inflation but also prevents unnecessary damage to the labor market,” he said.

Meanwhile, the two US employment-related statistics released on Wednesday (3rd) have become new evidence confirming that the US labor market is losing momentum. Data from the ADP Research Institute showed that the pace of increase in US private sector employment decelerated further in June. Also, according to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor, the number of continuous recipients of unemployment insurance has increased for 9 consecutive weeks, and it has been a long-term upward phase since 2018. A situation where re-employment has become even more difficult was suggested.

Furthermore, the two statistics published prior to the US employment statistics for June indicate a decline in demand for the labor force. The June non-manufacturing comprehensive business climate index announced by the U.S. Supply Management Association (ISM) on the 3rd suggests the fastest pace of decline in activity in the past 4 years. It was a new sign that the economy was stalling.

Chairman Powell of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) avoided presenting specific guidance on when to cut interest rates this week on Tuesday (2nd), but it seems that he is showing a “dovish” attitude. Chairman Powell also revealed that there has been considerable progress in the Federal Reserve lowering the inflation rate to policy targets.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, FF interest rate futures traders will temporarily wait until September66.5% probability that interest rate cuts will be implemented, by the end of the year68.6% probability that interest rate cuts will be implemented 2 or more timesI was looking at it.