【Preview】The June US employment statistics are scheduled to be released tonight. Is the scenario of a rate cut in September true?

US June non-farm payroll employmentはThe announcement is scheduled for Friday (5th) night at 09:30 Japan time.In the market, it is expected that the non-farm payrolls for June will increase by 0.189 million people and the unemployment rate will be 4.0%.The labor market and economic trends in the United States.Being done.

"The data indicates that the normalisation of labor supply and demand is progressing," said Rubyra Falooki, Chief US Economist at High Frequency Economics. "From a policy perspective, the Federal Reserve's future challenge is not only to suppress inflation, but also to maintain interest rates at a level that prevents unnecessary damage to the labor market."

On the other hand, two employment-related statistics released in the United States on Wednesday (the 3rd) provided new evidence supporting the slowdown of the US labor market. ADP Research Institute's data indicated a further deceleration in the pace of increase in the number of US private sector employees in June. According to data released by the US Department of Labor, the number of continuing unemployment insurance claimants increased for the ninth consecutive week, reaching the longest period of increase since 2018. The situation suggests that re-employment is becoming increasingly difficult.

Furthermore, two statistics released prior to the June employment report in the US indicate a decline in demand for labor. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on the 3rd that the Non-Manufacturing Composite Index for June suggested the fastest pace of activity contraction in the past four years. This is a new sign of economic slowdown.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell avoided providing specific guidance on the timing of the first rate cut this week on Tuesday (the 2nd), but he appears to be taking a "dovish" stance. Chairman Powell also revealed that the Federal Reserve has made significant progress in reducing the inflation rate to the policy target.

According to the FedWatch tool of the cme group, traders of FF gold interest rate futures temporarily have a 66.5% probability of a rate cut by Septemberand a 68.6% probability of two or more rate cuts by the end of the year.There is a probability of 68.6% that there will be interest rate cuts more than twice within the year.There is a 68.6% probability that there will be more than two interest rate cuts implemented.I expected it.