[Preview] US employment statistics for March are scheduled to be announced tonight Is the risk of inflation rekindling limited?

moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Apr 4 03:35

This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts

Number of people employed in the non-farm sector in MarchIsFriday (5th) at 09:30 p.m. Japan timeIt is scheduled to be announced on At the market, in March of riceThe number of people employed in the non-farm sector is expected to increase by 198,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.8%It's been done.

[Preview] US employment statistics for March are scheduled to be announced tonight Is the risk of inflation rekindling limited?

The number of US job offers for February announced this Tuesday was almost unchanged from the previous month. It was suggested that demand for labor is stabilizing at a high level.

Source: Nihon Keizai Shimbun

Also, on Wednesday of this week, according to the March US Employment Report announced by Automatic Data Processing (ADP), a payroll calculation service for enterprises, the number of people employed in the private sector increased to 184,000, the largest since July last year, which suggests signs that the labor market remains strong.

Chairman Powell gave a lecture at Stanford University in California on the 3rd. According to him, it suggests the idea that they would like to wait for a more clear signal of slowing inflation before starting interest rate cuts. Regarding the fact that a higher inflation rate was shown recently, it was recognized that it would not change the broader trajectory.

Source: Bloomberg

According to US employment statistics for the first fiscal year (February) announced by the US Department of Labor on the 8th of the previous month, the number of workers in the non-farm sector increased by 275,000 compared to the previous month. It exceeded the 200,000 increase expected by the market. The unemployment rate rose against expectations, and average hourly wage growth fell short of expectations. The employment momentum is solid, but it is generally settling down.

Source: Nihon Keizai Shimbun

The number of US job offers in February was 8.76 million, and the labor market is still strong
According to the February Employment Dynamics Survey (JOLTS) announced by the US Department of Labor on the 2nd this Tuesday, the number of job offers (seasonally adjusted, preliminary figures) in the non-farm sector was 8,756,000. There was an increase of 8,000 cases from the previous month, slightly exceeding the market forecast (8.73 million cases) compiled by Bloomberg, and also showed solid labor demand in the United States.

The number of dismissals in February (excluding government departments) was 1.64 million. This is an increase of 113,000 cases from the previous month. Meanwhile, the number of hires increased by 120,000 to 5818,000. The number of voluntary turnover cases increased by 38,000 to 3.484,000. The number of job offers for 1 unemployed person is 1.36, a low level for the first time in 4 months.

Stuart Paul, an economist at Bloomberg Economics, said, “As the number of unemployed people increases, the number of job offers for 1 unemployed person is decreasing, and pressure on wage increases is expected to ease further in the future. Labor market adjustments will progress, wage upward pressure will decline, and the financial authorities will strengthen their sense of security against interest rate cuts this summer,” he said.

The number of people employed in the US ADP non-farm sector significantly exceeded expectations with an increase of 184,000 in March
Automatic data processing for enterprise payroll services (ADP) announcedMarch US Employment ReportAccording toNumber of people employed in the non-farm sectorIsAn increase of 184,000 people、Market forecast increased by 148,000. Contrary to expectations of a slowdown in growth from February, it was the biggest increase since July last year. The first semesterRevised upward from 140,000 to 155,000. The overall increase in employment suggested strong demand for labor. On average, wages for workers who continued to work in the same workplace rose 5.1% from the previous month. The increase was the same as in February. Meanwhile, the average wage for job changers jumped 10%.

ADP's chief economist, Nela Richardson, said in her statement, “March surprised not only wage increases, but also departments that recorded wage increases. Wages for job changers rose the most in the three sectors of construction, financial services, and manufacturing. Inflation is slowing down, but current data shows that wages are overheating in both goods and services,” he pointed out.

In terms of industry, the leisure and hospitality industry led in March, and it was the biggest increase in employment since July. Employment increased in all industries, with the exception of the specialized service industry, where employment declined.

Fed Chairman Says Cautious Inflation Slows Due to Early Interest Rate Cuts “Need to Raise Confidence”
Mr. Powell gave a lecture at Stanford University Business School and pointed out that “both recent indicators of employment and inflation have exceeded expectations.” Officials generally agree on the view that interest rate cuts by the end of the year are appropriate, but they said that interest rate cuts will only be realized when “confidence that it is falling continuously increases” toward 2%, which is the FRB's target.

President Bostic of the Atlanta Area Federal Reserve expressed the view in an interview with CNBC that it is appropriate to start interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter. He expects interest rate cuts of 0.25 percentage points once by the end of the year, less than the three or more expected by most members of the U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

Mr. Bostick pointed out that inflation trends have become quite uneven. “If the economy progresses as expected, gross domestic product (GDP) and employment continue to be steady, and inflation declines moderately throughout the year, I think it is appropriate to start cutting interest rates at the end of the year or in the fourth quarter.”

Observation of interest rate cuts
At the market, in March of riceThe number of people employed in the non-farm sector is expected to increase by 198,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.8%It's been done.

If the forecast is correct, the strong labor market continues in March, and employers are steadily increasing their employment in an already healthy economy. The economy has been increasing employment every month since 2020/12, and there is a high possibility that March will increase employment for 39 consecutive months.

BMO Capital Markets senior economist Sal Guatieri commented, “The US labor market seems to be becoming active again rather than shifting down.”

Source: Investopedia

If these predictions become reality, it can be confirmed that the economy is recovering reluctantly even under the heavy pressure of the Federal Reserve, which maintains high interest rates for the first time in decades to control inflation.

Federal Reserve officials are concerned that inflation will continue to exceed the Fed's target of 2% per annum due to rapid wage increases. Meanwhile, if the job market is unexpectedly sluggish, there is a possibility that the Fed will cut interest rates more quickly in order to stimulate the economy and stop the recession.

Meanwhile, the economist at BMO Capital Markets said that even if employment statistics were close to expectations, it was uncertain which way it would turn.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, FF interest rate futures traders will temporarily wait until JuneThe probability that interest rate cuts will be implemented is 58.46%, by September91.96% probability that interest rate cuts will be implementedI was looking at it.

Data time: 2024.04.04

— MooMoo News Zeber
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, CME FedWatch, ADP® National Employment Report, Investopedia, Kabutan, Moomoo
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts

Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more

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HONDA N-ONE : Go out of your way to curb inflation by suppressing employment
I don't think Japan would take such a reasonable policy
As a matter of fact, a rational society

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