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[Preview] The US November CPI is scheduled to be announced tonight, and the decisive moment that will affect US stocks has arrived

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moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Dec 11, 2023 07:42
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics22:30 on Tuesday, December 12, 2023 Japan timeuponUS Consumer Price Index (CPI) for NovemberIt is planned to be announced. Policy decisions of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) were revealed on the 13th (14th a.m. Japan time), and it is expected that they will direct the stock market and economy in 2024.
The market anticipates that overall CPI will decline as inflation cools down and energy prices ease. If there are signs of slowing inflation, the view that the US financial authorities will soon switch to mitigation will intensify, and there is a possibility that stock prices will rise further until the end of the year. According to forecasts, CPI is expected to rise 3.1% from the same month last year, which is the lowest growth since June.
In October, the growth rate of core CPI excluding food and energy fell to 4%, the lowest level in the past two years. The core CPI, which is a predictive index for judging future inflation trends by the Fed, has been hovering around 4% for the past few months, which is double the Fed's target value of 2%. According to market forecasts, there is a possibility that the core CPI growth rate in November will remain at 4.0%.
[Preview] The US November CPI is scheduled to be announced tonight, and the decisive moment that will affect US stocks has arrived
There is a possibility that the impact of energy on prices will be smaller than in October
WTI crude oil futures for November fell 5.7% (7.0% in October), and the US average gasoline price in November fell 9.1% (10.2% in October).
Global food prices remained high in November and remained unchanged from the previous month
The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) announced on the 8thGlobal food prices in November were almost at the same level as the previous monthIt was announced that it was. As rising food prices continue to put cost pressure on consumers, there is a possibility that prices will not fall easily for policy makers who are focusing on dealing with inflation that has remained high, a matter of concern.
The November food price index was 120.4, which was almost unchanged from the October revised value. Compared to a year ago, it's down 11%. Prices of grain and meat fell, but were offset by rising prices for sugar, vegetable oil, and dairy products.
[Preview] The US November CPI is scheduled to be announced tonight, and the decisive moment that will affect US stocks has arrived
rents
Rent continues to be the main cause of inflation, but since the vacancy rate for rental properties is at a high level,Landlords' pressure to raise rents has easedDoing it. According to a Bloomberg survey, economists expect CPI Primary Rent to increase 0.4% from the previous month and fall below the 0.5% increase in October. Also, according to Apartment List's National Rent Report, the rental market continued to decelerate seasonally this month, and the national median rent fell 0.9% to 1,340 dollars. This is the second sharp drop in November rents in index history since 2017.
[Preview] The US November CPI is scheduled to be announced tonight, and the decisive moment that will affect US stocks has arrived
used car
Prices of used cars and trucks are expected to fall for 6 consecutive months, but the pace is moderate. According to Manheim, used car wholesale prices (configuration ratio, mileage, seasonally adjusted basis) in November fell 2.1% from October. Used cars and trucksKey Drivers of Commodity DeflationIt has become.
[Preview] The US November CPI is scheduled to be announced tonight, and the decisive moment that will affect US stocks has arrived
medical
Health care costs rose 0.3% in October due to rising hospital services and prescription drug prices. Health insurance premiums rebounded because the US Bureau of Labor Statistics changed how health insurance premiums are calculated. What is this changeIt will continue next year and will have an impact on the inflation rateI think so.
Observation of interest rate cuts
The US CPI for November was announced on the 12th, and if there are signs of a slowdown in inflation, the view that the US financial authorities will soon turn to mitigation will intensify, and there is a possibility that stock prices will rise further until the end of the year. Meanwhile, Edward Jones' senior investment strategist Angelo Kulkafas announced on the 12thIf the November US Consumer Price Index exceeds expectations, there is a possibility that stock prices will fall in the short termI pointed it out.
It is expected that the FOMC, which will begin on the 12th with a schedule of 2 days, will decide to leave the policy unchanged for 3 consecutive meetings. Traders anticipate that the US financial authorities will cut interest rates by a total of 1 point next year, so they are paying particular attention to the Powell Federal Reserve (Fed) press conference and interest rate prediction distribution charts (dot plots) of officials.
A strong economy will keep inflation high, and there is also a risk that the authorities will consider additional interest rate increases or maintain policy interest rates at a high level for a longer period than expected. In that case, there is a possibility that it will weigh heavily on high-tech stocks, which have greatly driven the rise in market prices in 23. “Chairman Powell's remarks next week have the potential to change people's minds. In particular, if there are statements with a hawkish tone than people expected,” Zacarelli pointed out.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, as of the 11th, the probability of interest rate cuts in March was 38.04%, and the probability of interest rate cuts in May was factored in close to 70.47%.
[Preview] The US November CPI is scheduled to be announced tonight, and the decisive moment that will affect US stocks has arrived
— MooMoo News US Stock Zeber
Sources: Moomoo, Bloomberg, Reuters, Jiji Press, Forbes, Morningstar, CME FedWatch, Dow Jones
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
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