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[Preview] Whether or not interest rates will be raised in December depends on tonight's US employment statistics!

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moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Nov 2, 2023 00:08
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
Number of people employed in the non-farm sector in the US in OctoberIs9:30 p.m. Friday (3rd) Japan timeIt is scheduled to be announced on. Although the number of ADP private sector employees announced this week fell short of expectations, the number of JOLTS job offers exceeded expectations.
In the market,The number of people employed in the non-farm sector in the US in October is expected to increase by 188,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to be 3.8%It's been done. The number of people employed in the non-farm sector in the first quarter (September) increased by 336,000, and market expectations increased by 170,000. It recorded a drastic increase since January, showing the strength of the labor market.
Changes in the number of people employed in the US non-farm sector
Changes in the number of people employed in the US non-farm sector
FOMC results
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) left the federal fund (FF) interest rate guidance target unchanged at 5.25-5.50% at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held until November 1.The decision was unanimous, and interest rate hikes were postponed for 2 consecutive meetingsIt became.
The Federal Reserve said in a statementEmployment growth continues to be “strong”Inflation is still “high,” and the Federal Reserve will continue to examine “the extent of additional tightening that is appropriate to return inflation to the 2% target.”
Chairman Powell also suspended judgment on whether the current policy interest rate had reached a sufficiently tight level at the press conference, and repeatedly emphasized the attitude of examining new economic data at each meeting as before.
The number of job offers in September in the US increased by 56,000 to 9.553 million, which is higher than expected
The US Department of Labor announced it on the 1stSeptember Employment Dynamics Survey (JOLTS)The number of job offers9553,000 cases, an increase of 56,000 cases, which exceeded expectationsSo,Plus for 2 months in a rowIt became.
Number of job offers and number of hires
Number of job offers and number of hires
Recruiting has increased slightly and layoffs have declined. The turnover rate, which is the ratio of voluntary turnover, was 2.3% for 3 consecutive months. It remained the lowest since January 2021. The decline in the turnover rate shows the current situation where workers are less confident in finding another job.
Christopher Lapkey, chief economist of FWDBONDS (New York), pointed out that “demand for the economy as a whole has not decelerated, and Federal Reserve (FRB) officials will have doubts about whether they have responded sufficiently.” The market excluded interest rate hikes by the end of the year from consideration, but they expressed the view that if the labor market remains tight, concerns about interest rate hikes will be rekindled.
Meanwhile, Stuart Paul of Bloomberg Economics analyzed that “demand for skilled workers is cooling down, and considering that there is a high possibility that the increase in recruitment and recruitment in September is due to temporary factors, there is a possibility that the easing of tightness that will occur in the labor market in the future will be more turbulent than we have seen so far.”
The number of job offers for 1 unemployed person was 1.5 unchanged from the previous month, which is a low for the first time in almost 2 years. The peak was 2 cases in 2022.
US ADP private sector employment in October increased by 113,000 less than expected
Automatic data processing for enterprise payroll services (ADPThe October one announced by)U.S. Employment ReportAccording toPrivate sector employment increased by 113,000It remained at the same time, and although it increased from the previous 89,000 people,Below market expectations (150,000 increase)That was it. The current statistics suggest that the labor market has begun to cool down markedly when the previous month's worth is taken into account.
Changes in US ADP private sector employment
Changes in US ADP private sector employment
Regarding the details of the US employment report for October, the wage increase rate for October increased 5.7% from the same month last yearDeceleration pace for the first time in 2 years. The wage increase rate for job changers was 8.4%,It was the lowest since 2021/7。
By company size, medium-sized enterprises with 50 to 500 employees experienced the strongest increase in employment, increasing employment by a total of 78,000 people. Small businesses with less than 50 employees contributed to the employment of 19,000 people. Large companies with 500 or more employees also increased employment by 18,000 people.
[Preview] Whether or not interest rates will be raised in December depends on tonight's US employment statistics!
According to ADP's latest report,Education and health services are at the top with an increase of 45,000 peopleIt became. In addition, increases in trade, transportation, and utilities (35,000 people), finance (21,000 people), and entertainment/hospitality (17,000 people) were noticeable.
Almost all of the increase in employment is due to the service industrySo, there were only 6,000 people in the commodity manufacturing industry.
[Preview] Whether or not interest rates will be raised in December depends on tonight's US employment statistics!
ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said, “There were no industries that controlled employment this month, and it seems that drastic wage increases after the pandemic are a thing of the past. Overall, the October employment statistics are balanced overall,” he said. It expressed the view that “the labor market is slowing down, but it is still sufficient to support strong private consumption.”
Rate hike observations
In the federal funds (FF) interest rate futures market, there is a growing view that the Fed will end interest rate hikes and begin cutting interest rates by next June. The possibility of additional interest rate hikes within the year to be factored into FF interest rate futures is less than 23%. The possibility of interest rate hikes until the FOMC in January next year is about 30%.
[Preview] Whether or not interest rates will be raised in December depends on tonight's US employment statistics!
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Source: Bloomberg, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Reuters, Dow Jones, CME FedWatch, Investing, SeekingAlpha, ADP® National Employment Report
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts
[Preview] Whether or not interest rates will be raised in December depends on tonight's US employment statistics!
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
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