[Preview] Will the US employment statistics for December confirm the interest rate cut observations scheduled to be announced tonight

moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Jan 4 08:51

This article uses automatic translation in part

The number of people employed in the non-farm sector in DecemberFriday (5th) at 10:30 p.m. Japan timeIt is scheduled to be announced on At the market, rice in DecemberThe number of people employed in the non-farm sector is expected to increase by 163,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise to 3.8%It's been done.

[Preview] Will the US employment statistics for December confirm the interest rate cut observations scheduled to be announced tonight

According to ADP employment statistics released this week, the number of people employed in the non-farm sector in December surpassed 164,000, which suggests that recruitment activities of US companies have become active. Meanwhile, the number of US JOLTS job offers in November also reached a low level of 8.79 million for the first time in about 3 years.

According to US employment statistics for November, the unemployment rate declined unexpectedly from the previous month, and the growth in the number of people employed in the non-farm sector exceeded expectations. The deceleration in the labor market cannot be confirmed from today's figures, and expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts by the FRB next year, which the market is expecting, cannot be justified. According to employment statistics released by the US Department of Labor,November Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)Is19.9 million increase、The market forecast is for an increase of 180,000 people.

unemployment rateIt is 3.7%, and the forecast is 3.9%.

Average hourly wage (month-on-month)0.4%, forecast 0.3%.

In terms of the number of employees employed in November, the return to work of automobile manufacturer employees who had carried out the strike led to a boost of 30,000 people. The labor participation rate also rose slightly.

In addition to the fact that employment in the manufacturing sector improved with the end of the American Auto Workers Union (UAW) strike, the medical, entertainment/hospitality, and government sectors led overall growth. The question was whether growth remained small in other fields or declined like retail.

The number of job offers in November in the US declined by 8.79 million for 3 consecutive months
According to the November Employment Dynamics Survey (JOLTS) announced by the U.S. Department of Labor on the 3rd, the number of job offers (seasonally adjusted, preliminary value) in the non-farm sector declined to 8.79 million for 3 consecutive months, and hit a low level since 2021/3. There was a decrease of 62,000 cases from the previous month, which is almost in line with the market forecast (8.8 million cases). It seems that the US labor market continues to soften.

Also, in November, the number of voluntary turnover cases, which serves as a measure of confidence in the labor market, fell to the level since 21/2, showing the possibility that American workers are monitoring changes in the labor market.

However, even so, the number of job offers per unemployed person is 1.4, an increase from 1.36 in the previous month, and the number of dismissals has been at a low level since 22/12. It was also shown that the labor market situation is still quite strong.

President Birkin of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank pointed out in his lecture on the 3rd that “I hear voices from many managers that recruitment has begun to become easier (labor supply has recovered), but it is difficult to let go of workers who have been hired after a hard time.” It showed recognition that if the US economy moves towards a soft landing (soft landing), the labor market will also normalize.

US December ADP employment statistics suggest that recruitment activities of US private companies have become more active than expected
Automatic data processing for enterprise payroll services (ADP) announcedDecember US Employment ReportAccording toNumber of people employed in the non-farm sectorIsAn increase of 164,000 people、The market forecast is an increase of 115,000 people.The annual salary increased by 5.4%.

“The labor market is returning to the pre-pandemic employment situation. Wages haven't been a driver of recent inflation, but now that wage growth has receded, the risk of a wage price spiral has largely disappeared.” ADP's chief economist Nella Richardson said.

The number of employed people increased for 4 consecutive months, and employment in the leisure and hospitality industry was strong. The construction industry maintained strong performance even under high interest rates, but the manufacturing industry continued to struggle and remained negative following the previous month.

Observation of interest rate cuts
The start time of interest rate cuts cannot be read from the December Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) agenda summary announced on the 3rd, and observations of interest rate cuts in March have receded slightly in the current financial market.

According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, FF interest rate futures traders will temporarily wait until March70.15% chance that interest rate cuts will be implemented, by June100% probability that interest rate cuts will be implementedI was looking at it.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) of the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held on 2023/12/12-13 on the 3rdSummary of proceedingsIt was released to the public.

In the summary of proceedings, it became clear that all participants emphasized the economic outlook showing an interest rate cut scenario within 24 years as “extremely uncertain,” and then pointed out that additional interest rate increases are possible depending on the economic situation. A few people also stated that “the period for leaving policy interest rates unchanged may be longer than currently anticipated.”

Participants generally agreed on the point that “monetary tightening will continue until it becomes clear that prices will continue to reach the (2%) target” even after interest rate cuts began.

-MOOMOO NEWS ZEBER
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters, Nihon Keizai Shimbun, CME FedWatch, ADP® National Employment Report, IG
This article uses automatic translation in part

Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more

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kozotheblow : Sorry for being an amateur.
What you can read from this news is that the yen is likely to appreciate, isn't it? the yen is about to depreciate, isn't it??

I have a faint feeling that there is a high possibility that the yen will appreciate due to interest rate cuts, but I would like you to tell me how other factors are related, especially what is likely to happen tonight. A great person.

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181747077 : I don't know what's going to happen

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kozotheblow 181747077 : I want to earn a lot of money by being in both denominations and getting a lot of money

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