[Preview] Will the US employment statistics announced tonight show a slowdown in employment?

The number of people employed in the US non-farm sector in September9:30pm on Friday (6th) Japan timeIt is scheduled to be announced in Although the number of JOLTS jobs announced this week exceeded expectations, the number of ADP private sector employees fell far short of expectations.

In the market,Number of people employed in the non-farm sector of rice in SeptemberButExpected to increase by 163,000Then, there was an increase of 187,000 in the previous fiscal year, which exceeded expectations (170,000 increase). The market forecast for the same unemployment rate was 3.7%, the previous fiscal year was 3.8%, the market forecast for the same average hourly wage (compared to the previous month) was 0.3%, and the previous fiscal year was 0.2%.

● The number of US 8/JOLTS job offers announced on Tuesday (3rd) night was 9.61 million, an unexpectedly significant increase for the first time in 2 years
The U.S. Department of Labor announced it on the 3rdAugust Employment Dynamics Survey (JOLTS)isNumber of jobsBut961 million cases, an increase of 690,000 casesSo, the increase was at a high level for the first time in about 2 years.The market forecast is 8.8 millionIt was. The July edition was revised upward from 8.827 million to 8.92 million. The main reason was the rapid increase in white-collar jobs, which highlighted the solidity of labor demand.

Hiring increased slightly, and layoffs remained at a low level. The turnover rate, which is the ratio of voluntary employee turnover, was 2.3% the same as the previous month. The decline in turnover indicates that confidence in the ability to find another job is currently declining.

The increase in the number of job offers reflects an increase of more than 500,000 people in the professional and business services industries, and also growth in finance/insurance, education, and non-durable goods manufacturing. The recovery in job offers an indication of how solid demand supports human resource needs.

Although improvements in labor participation rates and consistent wage increases have helped mitigate labor shortages, issues remain. The number of job offers per unemployed person was 1.5, unchanged from the previous month. At its peak in 2022, it had reached 2 cases.

● US ADP private employment announced on the night of Wednesday (4th) is significantly lower than expected with an increase of 89,000 in September
Automatic data processing for enterprise payroll services (ADP) announcedSeptember National Employment ReportAccording toNumber of people employed in the private sectorIs compared to the previous month89,000 increase、It fell short of expectations (153,000 increase)。Number of private sector employees in the first quarterIs compared to the previous month180,000 increase from 177,000It was fixed to.

Entertainment and hospitality led the growth, offsetting the decline in professional/business services, manufacturing, and trade/transportation.

By size, large companies have cut employment.

Until now, the labor market has been the driving force that boosts personal consumption and, in turn, the US economy, but the current data has once again highlighted signs that the labor market is decelerating further.

●Observation of interest rate hikes
In his report, Mr. Thorsten Sloke of Apollo pointed out that the Fed aims to suppress the inflation rate to 2%, but since the core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) index in August rose 3.9% from the same month last year, various economic indicators have softened and corporate performance lacks strength, it is necessary to maintain a hawkish attitude. Also, Mr. Throck pointed out that the reason the Fed is turning into a dovist faction is probably because it has fallen into a recession (recession). At the end of the day, “even if the Fed can control the base interest rate, it has not been able to control credit spreads. That is the reason why the US economy is unlikely to have a soft landing (soft landing).”

Therefore, there is a high possibility that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will take a cautious stance on policy interest rates. At the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to be held from 9/19 to 20, it is expected that it will maintain the current target range of 5.25-5.50% and cut interest rates towards the middle of next year.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of maintaining the current interest rate level by the end of the year is 62.6%, and the probability of a further 25 bp interest rate hike is 33.0%.