[Preview] Will the deceleration of US May CPI signal a return to easing?"Prepare for a big surprise after the announcement," says JP Morgan.

The US Bureau of Labor StatisticsWednesday, June 12th, at 9:30 PM (Japan time)to USA's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for MayScheduled to announce.

In the market, the May CPI isIt is expected that the overall inflation rate will cool slightly、Composite CPIare Decreasing from a 0.3% increase from the previous month to a 0.1% increase.On the other hand, it is expected that the year-on-year increase will be 3.4%, which is the same level as the previous period.Core CPIMatching the 0.3% increase from the previous month, similar to April,It is expected to decrease from a 3.5% increase compared to the previous year to a 3.6% increase in April.If the forecast is accurate, the rate of increase in May will be the smallest since October.

The reason the overall inflation rate was anticipated to be low in May was due to the decrease in energy prices.Decrease in energy prices in May.Being one of the factors. The Fed is inclined to focus on core inflation, but if current forecasts are maintained, the data will be somewhat encouraging for policymakers who have seen signs of accelerating inflation at the beginning of the year. However, as core inflation remains high, the likelihood of the Fed implementing an immediate rate cut is low.

This data will serve as new evidence showing a return to easing after inflation reignited in the first quarter.Is expected.Groceriesprices are likely to rise slightly, butthe drop in crude oil pricesleads to a decline in energy prices, The headline will show soft numbers.It is expected that the prices of automobiles, clothing, recreational goods, and household products will decline.Product prices are expected to fall again.However, the most important thing is whether the inflation of services and residence expenses will continue to fall at a pace below the trend rate of the past 20 months.The most important thing is whether the inflation of services and residence expenses will continue to fall at a pace below the trend rate of the past 20 months.Residence expenses are decelerating, but services are not. Excluding housing, CPI core services have been on an upward trend since June 2023, rising close to 5.2% year-on-year in April, showing an increasing trend.

「The progress of inflation control will resume in the second quarter.It appears that the Fed's rate cut is expected to be implemented in the second half of this year, but the exact timing still remains 'soon', according to Scott Anderson, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets.Dependent on data,said Scott Anderson, Chief Economist at BMO Capital Markets.

From J.P. Morgan to Citigroup, Wall Street's leading trading desks are urging investors to prepare for stock market fluctuations this week ahead of the U.S. inflation statistics and the FOMC policy decision announced on the 12th.

Excluding volatile food and energy, if the core CPI exceeds 0.4% month-on-month, the S&P 500 is expected to decline by 1.5-2%, putting selling pressure on all risk assets. However, the likelihood of this scenario becoming reality is slim.According to J.P. Morgan's Tyler, if the core CPI exceeds 0.4% month-on-month, the S&P 500 is expected to drop by 1.5-2%, putting selling pressure on all risk assets. However, the likelihood of this scenario becoming reality is slim.According to J.P. Morgan's Tyler, excluding volatile food and energy, if the core CPI exceeds 0.4% month-on-month, the S&P 500 is expected to drop by 1.5-2%, putting selling pressure on all risk assets. However, the likelihood of this scenario becoming reality is slim.５％Watching. The most likely scenario is,Month-on-month core CPI0.3-0.35% increase. Depending on the content of the CPI statistics, the S&P 500 is expected toDecline by 0.75% to rise by 0.75%.is anticipated.

Federal Reserve Chair Powell has suggested that the sluggish labor market may prompt the Fed to lower interest rates, potentially avoiding or mitigating an economic downturn. However,Non-farm payroll employment in Maysignificantly exceeded expectations. Additionally,average hourly earningsFrom April, the month-on-month and year-on-year growth rates of accelerated. However, this employment statistics also include weak elements.unemployment raterose from the previous 3.9% to4%、4％It is the first time in over two years that it has reached this level, and the upward trend has become more evident. In light of this employment statistics, the financial market's view on the number of interest rate cuts within the year is decreasing from about 2 times to about 1 timeI did.

Even when looking at the overall U.S. economy, weaknesses are beginning to be seen in personal consumption and manufacturing activities. Just based on this employment statistics, it cannot be said that the underlying trend of slowing U.S. economic growth and declining inflation rates has changed.

The increase in rent There is a seasonal pattern.Generally, rent tends to rise from spring to summer, while prices tend to decline gradually from autumn to winter.Currently, the rental market is in the midst of a peak season.The nationwide median rent, after declining for six consecutive months from August 2023 to January 2024, has been rising for four consecutive months at present. However,The growth in rent in May has slightly slowed down, with a 0.5% increase compared to the previous month from the peak of 0.6% in March.Therefore, the modest growth this month suggests that the market is heading towards a sluggish summer.The modest growth this month suggests that the market is heading towards a sluggish summer.。

Gasoline and energy commodity prices rose in April. However, in May,WTI crude oil prices dropped significantly.This decline suggests a decrease in energy prices, which may weaken the CPI for May.There is a possibility that it may weaken the CPI for May.Currently, the average spot price of crude oil is 81.44, down from 88.01 last month and up from 74.12 a year ago. This represents a decrease of 7.46% from last month and an increase of 9.88% from a year ago. On the other hand, according to Gasbuddy data, the national average price of unleaded gasoline in May dropped by about 18 cents per gallon to $3.61.

Wholesale used car prices in May are compared to AprilFallen.The Mannheim Used Vehicle Price Index (MUVVI) fell to 197.3, a decrease of 12.1% year-on-year. The impact on the month was mitigated by seasonal adjustments to the index, resulting in a 0.6% decrease from the previous month. The average price before seasonal adjustment fell by 1.2% from the previous month and 11.4% from the previous year.