Consolidation expected around the  0.03 million8000 yen level, with a watchful eye on exchange rates and geopolitical risks = Tokyo stock market next week

October 4, 2024, 3:46 PM GMT+9 (excerpt)

In the Tokyo stock market next week, it is expected that the Nikkei average will consolidate around the 38,000 yen level. Market conditions are expected to continue while keeping an eye on exchange rate trends. In the short term, concerns about the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike and yen appreciation are diminishing. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is showing intentions to dissolve the House of Representatives on the 9th and there is a consciousness that "elections are a buy". On the other hand, amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, attention needs to be paid to the possibility of increasing geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Towards the end of the week, there will be the announcement of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI on the 10th).
The expected range for the Nikkei average is 38,300 yen to 39,300 yen.

October 4, 2024, 3:21 PM JST (excerpt)
It is expected that Japanese stocks in the second week of October (7th-11th) will rebound. Amid volatile foreign exchange markets, investors are likely to shift their focus to domestically oriented stocks with relatively little exposure to exchange rate fluctuations. There is expected to be buying to reassess the domestic economy based on the performance of major retail companies.
In addition to the escalating tensions in the Middle East, the uncertainty surrounding Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's policies has led to increased volatility in the foreign exchange market, weighing on Japanese stocks. The Tokyo Stock Price Index (TOPIX) for the first week of October fell 1.7% on a weekly basis, marking the third consecutive weekly decline.