Bond investors waiting for interest rate cuts
$iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ Bonds viewed from the exchange rate 🤔
I'm doing FX, but looking at the dollar yen, the decline quickly returned due to the month-end factor, and the appreciation of the dollar still hasn't changed.
However, in terms of fundamentals, I think there is gradually no room for the dollar to appreciate.
This has taken into account quite a bit the appreciation of the dollar due to a retreat in interest rate cuts observations.
In order for bond interest rates to rise even more from here on due to the appreciation of the dollar, I think that is exactly an additional interest rate increase.
But the Fed's next move is “interest rate cuts,” right? The dollar index for May showed a negative line for the first time in a long time!
There is a big relationship between exchange rates and interest rates, so I would like to think that this area is bottoming out for long-term bonds 🤔
I think the rise in the inflation rate since the beginning of the year has calmed down!
This was a big rise in crude oil prices 😓
However, the monthly price of crude oil has also been determined on a negative line, and it acts as a downward pressure on the US CPI announced in June!?
(Of course it's not determined by crude oil alone)
Pay attention to the results of the OPEC meeting on 6/2 (Sun) → we can predict how far production cuts will continue.
US employment statistics → US CPI → FOMC are really important in June. I thought interest rates would be cut in June, but if there is a gap in 7/8, I would like to change my mind and respond flexibly 😊
However, in terms of fundamentals, I think there is gradually no room for the dollar to appreciate.
This has taken into account quite a bit the appreciation of the dollar due to a retreat in interest rate cuts observations.
In order for bond interest rates to rise even more from here on due to the appreciation of the dollar, I think that is exactly an additional interest rate increase.
But the Fed's next move is “interest rate cuts,” right? The dollar index for May showed a negative line for the first time in a long time!
There is a big relationship between exchange rates and interest rates, so I would like to think that this area is bottoming out for long-term bonds 🤔
I think the rise in the inflation rate since the beginning of the year has calmed down!
This was a big rise in crude oil prices 😓
However, the monthly price of crude oil has also been determined on a negative line, and it acts as a downward pressure on the US CPI announced in June!?
(Of course it's not determined by crude oil alone)
Pay attention to the results of the OPEC meeting on 6/2 (Sun) → we can predict how far production cuts will continue.
US employment statistics → US CPI → FOMC are really important in June. I thought interest rates would be cut in June, but if there is a gap in 7/8, I would like to change my mind and respond flexibly 😊
I think there are still more opportunities to buy, but let's keep a close eye on TLTTMF bond holders by maintaining their mentality!
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
株の慶次 : I'm going to go with T9M's construction price, this lol
投資家 t9m OP 株の慶次 : TMF is getting interesting again