Pushing for the losers Apple and Tesla?

To the Magnificent Seven of the seven giant tech companies that have led the rise in US stocks“loser”has surfaced.Two companies, Apple and TeslaThat's it.

Why did Tesla and Apple stock prices fall in the first place?
Looking for what the two companies have in common,Decline factorscomes up. In other words,
1) Current poor sales and concerns about growth
2) Sense of being late with AIThat's it.

★ Current poor sales and concerns about growth
For TeslaisThe background is slowing demand for electric vehicles (EVs) and intensifying competitionIt's in. In response to this, Tesla's performance (especially profit margin) for the fiscal year ending 2023/10-12 fell short of market expectations. The fact that the company did not show guidance on the number of cars delivered for the full year 2024 also led to concerns about a downturn in EV demand. Tesla once showed a growth story with the goal of “number of EVs produced, 50% annual growth rate,”The postponement of guidance for the first time this time suggests a slowdown in growthIt happened, and it was a negative surprise.

In the case of AppleTotal sales for the fiscal year ending 2023/10-12 and sales of the main iPhone division both slightly exceeded market expectations, resulting in solid financial results. Until before financial results were announced, there were many investigative reports pointing out sluggish demand for the new iPhone and the decline in iPhone market share in China, so there were concerns about the impact of this on business results.Financial results are relatively strongIt can be said that it was,Future concerns surrounding iPhone sales did not go away. In addition to competitor Huawei steadily expanding its market share in the Chinese market,Samsung Electronics launched an AI smartphone ahead of AppleThat's in the background.

★ Are you disgusted by delays in AI and the sense of uncertainties in strategy
As for the sense of being late with AI, considering that the AI boom in the stock market continued in 2024, it seems that the impact on stock prices was significant.

TeslaCEO Elon Musk said that when BYD, a competitor in the EV market, replaced Tesla and rose to the top position in the world、“Tesla is an AI company (rather than EVs)”I commented. In fact, Tesla's AI strategy started before the generative AI boom occurred due to the popularity of “ChatGPT” in 2022/11. Tesla will host an “AI Day” event for the first time in 2021,Supercomputer “Dojo” announcedI did it.

Dojo was created for training machine learning models that support Tesla's autonomous driving system, and it is an AI training system to accelerate autonomous driving research, so to speak. Production of the Dojo began in 2022/7, and then it went into operation.Dojo is the foundation of Tesla's fully automated driving (FSD)It has formed, and Tesla alreadyBeta version of FSD offered to Tesla driversI'm doing it. In the financial results announcement at the end of January, Tesla announced that it had released the latest FSD beta software (V12) for the 2023/10-12 fiscal year to some Tesla employees and to customers at the beginning of this year. The cumulative mileage due to the FSD beta version has increased.

On the other hand,FSD is still in “beta,” and Tesla has not disclosed sales or AI business results related to FSD. Judging from Tesla's financial results, EV sales still account for the majority of sales today. In other words,Tesla is still an EV manufacturer rather than an “AI company”that's it. Some analysts predict that FSD already has a sales value of 1 to 3 billion dollars, and there will be an upside of 75 billion dollars by 2030. However, there are also indications that this is a “fabricated number.”

Tesla isA new segment focusing on AI initiatives should be createdThere is also a suggestion that this is the case. By doing so, it is said that investors can more effectively measure and analyze AI initiatives such as Tesla's FSD, RoboTaxi, Optimus (humanoid robot), and Dojo. Either way,Tesla's AI-related business may have great potential, but it's hard to see and evaluate at this stageThat seems to be showing up in stock price evaluations.

In the case of AppleAbout as much as TeslaThey haven't said much about AI strategies. When it comes to Apple's AI strategy, most of it is based on observation articles. For example, Bloomberg reported in 2023/7 that “Apple is secretly developing AI tools that can compete with products such as Open AI and Google under the umbrella of Alphabet.”

While the number of indications about the sense of being late in AI is increasingDid Apple feel a sense of crisis,Tim Cook CEOIn February this yearKey signals about AI strategiesIt was released. Mr. Cook revealed at the annual general meeting of shareholders that the company is investing a large amount of money in the AI field、“We look forward to sharing with you later this year how we are breaking new ground in generative AI」It was said.

Pushing for the losers Apple and Tesla?
Both companies continued to decline in stock prices due to the above two factors,Coming here is a sign of backlashIt shows.

★ Apple's backlash factor: installing “Gemini” on iPhones
AppleIt was on 3/8 that there was a backlash. The decline continued until the day before, and the technical indicator RSI fell below 30% of being oversold. Therefore, the backlash after March 8Technical factors also contributeIt seems that they did it. However, review purchases continued even after that.Apple is in talks to install Google's generative AI service “Gemini” on the iPhoneBloomberg reported that, and it became positive material.

If this is a fact and negotiations are established,It could be a turning point for Apple. This is because while the AI boom has continued for over a year, it shows that Apple has continued to give the market the impression that it lacks an AI strategy, but it has finally begun to move to try to recover. The installation of Google products may be an indication that Apple's AI efforts are not progressing as much as expected, but there is also a possibility that it will be further delayed simply by waiting for the company's progress. Therefore,Strengthening partnerships with Google will help recover from delays in AISeemably.

★ Apple falls on March 21 due to regulatory risks
Apple stock on March 21stUS Department of Justice sues Apple on suspicion of violating antitrust law over iPhonesIn response to what was done, it plummeted. Regulatory risk may hold back the rise for the time being. On the other hand,It is assumed that it will take some time until a final conclusion is reachedWhat's more,worst-case scenarioAt the time of (fine+presentation of improvement measures)There is also a possibility that the impact on earnings will not be as large as the market is concerned. Since there are many loyal iPhone users, this has become a “moat” for Apple. In view of regulatory risks,There is a possibility that Apple will further hurry up its AI strategy in order not to lose its loyal users.

★ Tesla's repulsive factor: I like the price increase
TeslaThe stock price also rebounded the day after RSI fell below 30% of being oversold (3/15). So, like Apple,Technical factors tooIt seems to have led to a backlash. However, the sharp backlash on March 18 was due to positive material from the corporate side. Until now, Tesla has implemented price cuts throughout the US and Europe in order to respond to intensifying competition, but since 3/16,Unexpectedly, the US and China and some European countries announced price increases for the “Model Y”I did it. Price increases do not indicate steady demand, and there are also indications that it is an “attempt to boost sales” by the company. On the other hand, since Tesla has continued to cut prices, it seems that price increases will help dispel investors' excessive concerns.On March 20, the US Biden administration strengthened automobile emission regulationsThen it was announced, and Tesla continued to grow in anticipation of a boost in EV sales.

★ Expect potential breakthroughs in the AI field in the medium to long term
Apple and TeslaIt is thought that there is also one medium- to long-term common factor in review purchases. In other words, against both companiesExpectations for recovery from “being late with AI”that's it. ThisSupported by Apple and Tesla's strong brand image and track record in technology leadershipI can say that. Databases in the respective main fields of activity of both companies are important resources for AI training such as machine learning, and provision of AI services based on them may lead to new revenue sources.

In other words, both companies are lagging behind in AI races in the short term,It has the potential to achieve breakthroughs in the AI field in the medium to long term. The effects of boosting stock prices due to technical factors or temporary favorable news may be limited,If both companies show steady progress in the AI field, they may be able to restore the stigma of “losers” in the AI boom.