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3 Selected US Stocks for "Quantum Computing"! A potential Tenbagger? Gaining momentum with strong performance and Amazon support.

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ビットバレー投資家 wrote a column · Nov 29, 2024 17:34
As a popular investment theme aimed at hitting a tenbagger, Quantum computing is once again in the spotlight is gathering.
Quantum computing related stocksisSharp increase in the past month.and its growth rate far exceeds that of AI and bitcoin related stocks, with some stocks seeing their stock prices increase by 2.6 times.
KeyReasons for the IncreaseAs follows, the following two are listed.
1) Performance of quantum computing-related stocksExceeded market expectations. While profitability is expected to be further down the road, progress in commercialization and performance improvement are evident.
2)Under the umbrella of Amazon.com,AWSis providing customers withSupport for quantum computing readinessannounced the launch of the Quantum Embark Program. This makes it easier for companies and organizations to prepare for the introduction of quantum computing, potentially promoting industry growth.
如上两起事件均与量子计算相关Brightening the outlookQuantum computing around the worldis expected to increase tenfold over the next 10 years in market sizeIt is predicted to expand, and there may be stocks in the industry that achieve a ten-bagger. This time, we will confirm the latest trends regarding quantum computers.Commercial development and performance improvementPopularly watched3 U.S. stocksPicked up.
Composition of Quantum Computing ETF 'QTUM' and Stock Price Gains and Losses
Quantum Computing ETF and its Constituent Stocks
There is an ETF composed of companies that provide products and services related to the development of quantum computing and machine learning technologies.Defiance Quantum ETF ' QTUMだ。QTUMは現在取り扱い銘柄でないが、その構成銘柄からは量子コンピュータ関連企業の情報が得られる。
Defiance Quantum EtfThe composition stocks of as of November 27thapproximately 70 stocksThe top 10 constituents are dominated by representative quantum computing-related stocks, but overall there is noticeable diversification. For example,Top 10 stocks by composition ratioThe top spot is held by the leader in quantum computing $IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$ (Composition ratio is 5.15%, 2nd place provides quantum computer system software and services $D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US)$ 3.87%), 4th place offers an integrated quantum computing system utilizing superconducting quantum bit technology $Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US)$ 3.20%In 6th place, they announced the industry's first general-purpose quantum computer cloud service called "IBM Q". $IBM Corp (IBM.US)$ 1.81%ranks alongside nvidia among overseas companies from japan. $NTT Data Group (9613.JP)$ Ranked 8th (1.69%), India's IT giant $Wipro (WIT.US)$ Ranked 9th (1.70%). AI semiconductor giant $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ 1.46%It is also a component stock.(As of November 27, composition ratio from Bloomberg)
Stock price fluctuations of quantum computer ETF constituent stocks
Defiance Quantum Etf component stocksStock price increase over the past monthThe stocks with an increase of more than 10% are as follows:
3 Selected US Stocks for "Quantum Computing"! A potential Tenbagger? Gaining momentum with strong performance and Amazon support.
Top 3 stocks by rate of increaseIs,Companies directly involved in quantum computing business are lined up.were lined up. Specifically,D-WaveNext,increased by 163.5%RigettiisUp by 96.7%IonQisUp by 89.9%した。その間、nvidiais4% decreaseand added more Bitcoin $Strategy (MSTR.US)$ (ETF with the third highest composition ratio) is66% increase. Based on the above, it can be seen that quantum computing-related stocks are currently more popular than AI and Bitcoin-related stocks.
Main factors for the increaseAs mentioned at the beginning,Better-than-expected performanceandSupport from Amazon.com in the industryRegarding performance, detailed confirmation will be done at the individual stock level. Before that, to understand the industry trends, I would like to briefly touch on the 'quantum computer' industry and Amazon.com's support program.
Brief overview of the 'quantum computer' industry
Quantum Computingaims to solve problems that even the most powerful traditional computers cannot solve.There is a possibility to fundamentally change the industry.has arrived.」(IonQ) "The era of quantum has begun." (D-Wave)It has transitioned from the laboratory to the companies.."(D-Wave)
The world's Quantum computing market sizeis estimated to be just under 0.9 billion dollars in 2023, with1.16 billiondollars by 2032,126.2is predicted to grow to a billion dollars(Fortune Business Insights, November 2024).In other words, the market sizeOver the next 10 years, it is expected to increase by more than 10 times.The outlook is expanding.
Regarding the realization method of quantum states,the 'superconducting method' is the most mainstream and research and development is progressing, but in recent years, 'ion trap methodhas been making progress.Progress is being made in all methods.Each method has its pros and cons.At this point in time,It's difficult to determine which one is the top choice.。」(Japan Research Institute's 'Trends and Outlook of Quantum Computing' (October 2024)
AWS's "Quantum Embark Program"
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ Its subsidiary AWSOn November 22,to assist customers in preparing for quantum computing, AWS announced the launch of the "Quantum Embark Program" (Quantum Embark Program)kickoff.Reached an all-time high last week.
Quantum Embark Programprovides an expert-led approach for customers embarking on quantum computingSpecialty Services Offeredmayto support quantum computing preparationswith the goal of preparing for quantum computing. Embark does not have long term contracts.there are no long-term contracts with Embark.CustomersCan be started in just a few weeksThe Quantum Embark ProgramDiscovery of use casesTechnical supportDeep dive"Consists of." (AWS announcement material)
Following the announcement of AWS, stocks related to quantum computing surged. This was due to the Quantum Embark Program, making it easier for companies and organizations to prepare for the introduction of quantum computing. As a result, Potential to promote consideration and commercial use of quantum computingHowever, there is a possibility that the upward trend will continue until the end of the year due to expectations for the Trump administration.
In addition, $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ Google, a subsidiaryNovember 18thTo, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ と量子コンピューティング技術の実現に向け提携すると発表した。ITやテック大手が技術と力を合わせて量子コンピュータ実用化の課題解決に乗り出していることは、業界にとってポジティブと言えよう。
「量子コンピュータ」米国株3選 
$IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$
◇Leader in the quantum computing industryDeveloping trap ion quantum computers.and introducing them from research institutions to commercial, industrial, and academic applications. Available on all major clouds such as Microsoft's Azure, Amazon.com's AWS, Alphabet's Google, etc.The only quantum hardware available on all major clouds.This marks the highest order intake for the period of April-September.
Leading the industry.Commercial product portfolio.Possessing.Technical aspectIn the past, they have always achieved milestones faster than planned in the technology roadmap. Their cutting-edge system boasting 35 algorithms and quantum bits, the #AQ35, was achieved a year ahead of schedule.
IonQ's technology roadmap, company documents
IonQ's technology roadmap, company documents
Performance for the July-September quarterisrevenueNext,12.4 million dollarsincreased by 102% year-on-year to 10.56 million dollars, exceeding market expectations.Net loss per shareis0.24 dollarsSo, the slightly increased loss from the market consensus of 0.22 dollars and the previous year's 0.22 dollars.New ordersReached 63.5 million dollars. The companyFiscal 2024 full-year revenue projectionHas been revised from the previous range of 38 million to 42 million dollars to 38.5 million to 42.5 million dollarsUpward revision.Reached an all-time high last week.
Business highlightsFor the July-September period,US Air Force Research Instituteand 54.5 million dollars ofcontract acquisition.acquired Qubitekk. IonQ announced that the acquisition is expected to increase short-term order and revenue opportunities.Acquired Qubitekk.IonQ announced that it expects short-term order and revenue opportunities to increase as a result of the acquisition.
決算発表後、5人のアナリストNext,Target PriceRaised its stock price. The number of analysts covering the company's stock is 6. There are 3 "Buy" recommendations and 3 "Hold" recommendations. The average Target Price is $18.58.(As of November 29, Bloomberg aggregation)
3 Selected US Stocks for "Quantum Computing"! A potential Tenbagger? Gaining momentum with strong performance and Amazon support.
$D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US)$
Leader in quantum computing systems, software, and services.Provides specialized services supporting quantum systems, cloud services, application development tools, and end-to-end quantum journeys. Customers include government and research institutions, and corporate entities such as Mastercard, Deloitte, and Davidson Technologies. Revenue from government and research institutions has significantly increased over the past 12 months.
D-Wave's revenue from government agencies and research institutions (past 12 months), as per company documents.
D-Wave's revenue from government agencies and research institutions (past 12 months), as per company documents.
Performance for the July-September quarterisrevenueNext,1.9 million dollarsAnd decreased by 27% year-on-year, falling below the market estimate of 2.58 million dollars. Revenue from professional services decreased by 80% due to the timing of new contract signings.Net loss per shareis0.11 dollars, slightly smaller than the loss of 0.12 dollars in the same period last year.The companyOctober-December quarterisRevenue and order intakeBoth are expected to exceed the July-September period,Adjusted EBITDA loss for fiscal year 2024 is expected to be below the $54.3 million loss in fiscal year 2023 (There is an expectation of a decrease in loss,)outlook.(EBITDA is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization)
Business highlightsIn August,NTT DOCOMOがモバイルネットワークのパフォーマンスを最適化するために、D-Waveテクノロジーで構築されたハイブリッド量子アプリケーションの量産展開を計画していると発表。10月にD-Waveは新興技術の調達と採用を加速するために設計された米国国防総省のTradewinds購入プラットフォームatorderableConsidered to be terminated.
決算発表後、5人のアナリストNext,Target PriceRaised it. The number of analysts covering the company's stock is 7. Investment rating is 'Buy' from all 7 analysts. The average target price is $2.96.(As of November 29, Bloomberg aggregation)
3 Selected US Stocks for "Quantum Computing"! A potential Tenbagger? Gaining momentum with strong performance and Amazon support.
$Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US)$
Providing an integrated quantum computing system utilizing superconducting quantum bit technology.Offering custom software and full-stack solutions focused on simulation, optimization, and machine learning applications to customers in finance, pharmaceuticals, defense, and energy. Adopted by US Air Force Research Labs, Fermilab's SQMS Center, and the UK National Quantum Computing Center.
July-September quarterisrevenueNext,2.4 million dollarsdeclined by 29% compared to the same period last year, falling below the market estimate of 3.33 million dollars. However,Net loss per shareis0.08 dollarsbelow the market estimate of 0.09 dollars, and lower than the 0.17 dollars in the same period last year.the loss has narrowedDuring the earnings call, the management indicated significant progress in technology development and customer engagement.
The company's side isNQI of the US governmentNational Quantum Initiative (NQI)Expecting benefits from the budget.Stating, "We are actively focusing on the US government as a major funder of our activities," and actively...Engaging in lobbying activities.It was revealed that the original version of the NQI Act, which was signed in 2018, has expired, including the third quarter up to the quarter in which the NQI re-approval is signed.Short-term financial impactsand noted that "There is bipartisan support for the re-approval of NQI, and I am confident it will be signed as soon as the new administration is formed," and mentioned, "Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)"projectis quite large, totaling nearly 0.3 billion dollars over 7 years, but we are trying toacquire" some of it.
After the earnings call, oneアナリストNext,Target PriceThe Company raised its target price. There are 5 analysts covering the company's stock. All 5 analysts have a 'Buy' investment rating. The average target price is $3.00.(As of November 29, Bloomberg aggregation)
3 Selected US Stocks for "Quantum Computing"! A potential Tenbagger? Gaining momentum with strong performance and Amazon support.
Risks (partial)
The quantum computing market is expected to expand in the medium to long term, but there may be delays in the short term due to various factors.
The quantum computing industry is still in its early stages of development, and even the leading companies in the industry have small revenue scales, with profitability prospects in the distant future and negative cash flow.
Analysts covering Quantum Computing-related stocks are fewer than 10, which is less than the number of analysts covering large-cap stocks. There is a possibility that the reliability of performance forecasts and outlooks is lower.
Some stocks have experienced periods when their stock prices fell below $1. If the stock price remains below $1 for an extended period in the future, there is a risk of delisting.
Market Analyst Julie created this on November 29, 2024
Source: Company documents, Bloomberg, and various materials compiled by moomoo Securities
3 Selected US Stocks for "Quantum Computing"! A potential Tenbagger? Gaining momentum with strong performance and Amazon support.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
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