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-- 121.840 Is Quantum Computing the next AI?! Check out the "USA Stock-Quantum 5 Stocks" potentially tenbagger candidates amid the market crash.
Will quantum computers become the next major boom after AI?
Quantum computing related stocksIt surged since the end of last year and outperformed AI stocks. Some stocks even became 10-baggers.There are also tenbagger stocks that have increased by more than 10 times in 3 months.However, on January 8th, they all dropped together.However, on January 8th, quantum computer-related stocks all experienced a 40-50% sharp decline.AI semiconductor champion NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang mentioned that the practical application of a 'very useful quantum computer'AI semiconductor champion NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang mentioned that the practical application of a 'very useful quantum computer'AI semiconductor champion NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang mentioned that the practical application of a 'very useful quantum computer'AI semiconductor champion NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang mentioned that the practical application of a 'very useful quantum computer'AI semiconductor champion NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang mentioned that the practical application of a 'very useful quantum computer'20 years ahead" statement. In response, the CEO of the quantum computer company said that Mr. Fan is completely wrong. We areCurrently, already commercializedHe countered with " and in response, quantum computer-related stocks rebounded in after-hours trading on January 8th.
This time,Check out the latest trends in AI and quantum computing.In addition,Pick up the 'Quantum Computer US Stock 5 Stocks'Check performance trends and outlook.
the largest winner in the AI boom $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ and the quantum computer ETF "QTUM"(*)'s stock price has been verified since the end of last November.Showing the appearance of inverse correlation.When QTUM rises, NVIDIA falls, and when QTUM falls, NVIDIA rebounds.
（※ $Defiance Quantum Etf (QTUM.US)$ Is composed of companies that provide products and services related to quantum computing and machine learning technology. Although not currently included in the lineup, you can check the stock price movement of QTUM and the top 10 constituent stocks through the moomoo app.
On January 7th, due to the selling pressure on tech stocks caused by the rise in long-term interest rates, both QTUM and NVIDIA fell. However, on January 8th, while NVIDIA remained nearly unchanged, QTUM plummeted.
きっかけは、AI semiconductor champion NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang mentioned that the practical application of a 'very useful quantum computer'AI semiconductor champion NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang mentioned that the practical application of a 'very useful quantum computer'AI semiconductor champion NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang mentioned that the practical application of a 'very useful quantum computer'AI semiconductor champion NVIDIA's CEO Jensen Huang mentioned that the practical application of a 'very useful quantum computer'20 years ahead」It was due to his statement. In response, one of the leading companies in the Quantum computing industryAlan Baratz, CEO of D-WaveHe immediately refuted it. Mr. Baratz told CNBC that Mr. Fan is 'completely wrong. The reason is that we at D-Wave are currently commercializing.' Consequently, quantum computing related stocks like D-Wave rebounded in after-hours trading on January 8th (U.S. markets were closed on January 9th).
In the battle between 'AI vs Quantum Computers,' AI and quantum computers seem to be directly competitive. But what is the relationship between the two in the first place?
At present, 'AI is mainstream,' while quantum computers are in the early stages of commercialization.
「Quantum Computing and AIResearch on quantum computing and AI has been ongoing for decades. Recent groundbreaking progress has led to ChatGPT With the release of advanced text, graphics, and generators such as MidJourney,AI has become mainstream.IBM from AI ChatGPT has sparked a boom in generated AI, but what is supporting it behind the scenes isNVIDIA's AI semiconductorsupdating their record highs since listing earlier this year, with some stocks soaring by more than 1.6 times in stock price over the last 3 months.
「Quantum Computing and AIResearch on quantum computing and AI has been ongoing for decades. Recent groundbreaking progress has led to ChatGPT With the release of advanced text, graphics, and generators such as MidJourney,AI has become mainstream.IBM from AI ChatGPT has sparked a boom in generated AI, but what is supporting it behind the scenes isNVIDIA's AI semiconductorsupdating their record highs since listing earlier this year, with some stocks soaring by more than 1.6 times in stock price over the last 3 months.
On the other hand,AIis、The ability to analyze vast amounts of data and identify patterns.has, however,limitations in processing speed and computational power.However, there is a possibility that the upward trend will continue until the end of the year due to expectations for the Trump administration.Quantum computerIs,従来のコンピュータでは解決が難しい問題を迅速に処理できるため、AIの学習プロセスを大幅に短縮し、より複雑なモデルを構築することが可能となる。」（Reinforz Insightより）そのため、量子コンピュータ技術開発の開発も続いており、D-Waveのアラン・バラッツCEOが述べたように、量子コンピュータ技術の商用化は一部ですでに始まっている。
●両者は必ずも排他的でなく、補完的な関係にもある：「量子AI」
「最新のモデルが古典的（または従来の）コンピューターの限界をこれ以上ないくらいまで押し上げる一方で、量子コンピューティングのAI開発への応用が、両方のテクノロジーを革命的な新時代にむけて飛躍させる態勢を整えている。 次世代AIが古典的なコンピューターの厳しい限界に挑戦するのと同様、量子コンピューティングのパラダイムシフト能力は、AIの強力な前進の道を提示し、ほぼ無限の可能性を実現する。」（IBMより）
「最新のモデルが古典的（または従来の）コンピューターの限界をこれ以上ないくらいまで押し上げる一方で、量子コンピューティングのAI開発への応用が、両方のテクノロジーを革命的な新時代にむけて飛躍させる態勢を整えている。 次世代AIが古典的なコンピューターの厳しい限界に挑戦するのと同様、量子コンピューティングのパラダイムシフト能力は、AIの強力な前進の道を提示し、ほぼ無限の可能性を実現する。」（IBMより）
$IBM Corp (IBM.US)$ Also focusing on the field of quantum computers. $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ Subsidiary'sGoogle's Quantum AI divisionannounced in November 2024,a partnership with NVIDIA CorpAccording to NVIDIA's announcement, "Google Quantum AI simulates the physics of quantum processors using a hybrid quantum-classical computing platform and the NVIDIA EOS supercomputer." NVIDIA has gained an exclusive share in the AI semiconductor market, making it the biggest winner of the AI boom, but it seems not entirely unrelated to quantum computers.
In addition,The relationship between AI and quantum computersIn order to understand, I think the comments of Hartmut Neven, the founder and leader of the Google Quantum AI division on the front lines, are very insightful.
"I am sometimes asked by colleagues why I have left the rapidly growing field of AI to focus on quantum computing. My answer will show that both are proven to be the most transformative technologies of modern times, but advanced AI will greatly benefit from access to quantum computing. Therefore, we named our laboratory 'Quantum AI' because quantum algorithms, as seen in RCS, are backed by fundamental scaling laws. Quantum computing is essential for collecting training data that traditional machines cannot access, training and optimizing specific learning architectures, and modeling systems where quantum effects are important. This includes accelerating the discovery of new drugs, designing more efficient batteries for electric vehicles, and advancing nuclear fusion and alternative energy sources. Many of these future game-changing applications cannot be achieved with conventional computers. They are waiting to be unleashed by quantum computing."
The transition of the Quantum Computer ETF "QTUM" shows that quantum computer-related stocks entered an upward trend starting in November 2024. When confirmed in chronological order, the following 3 areMain reasons for the increaseThis marks the highest order intake for the period of April-September.
1）November 2024：Performance of Quantum Computing related stocksExceeded market expectations. Although profitability is expected to take some time, Progress in commercialization and performance improvementare being observed.
2）November 2024Amazon.com's subsidiary, AWS(Amazon Web Services) announced the launch of the Quantum Embark Program for customers. This makes it easier for companies and organizations to prepare for the introduction of quantum computing, with the potential to accelerate commercialization.supporting customers with quantum computing preparednessAnnounced the launch of the Quantum Embark Program. This makes it easier for companies and organizations to prepare for the introduction of quantum computing.potential to accelerate commercialization.However, there is a possibility that the upward trend will continue until the end of the year due to expectations for the Trump administration.
3）December 2024：GoogleCurrently, it takes the fastest supercomputer in the world 10 to the power of 25 years to perform calculations, while the new quantum chip from Google Willowequipped computer with the new quantum chip from Google runs in less than 5 minutes.したと発表した。パフォーマンスの飛躍的な進歩は量子コンピュータの商用化を早めるかもしれない。
グーグルは発表資料で、「この分野の次の課題は、現在の量子チップ上で、実世界のアプリケーションに関連する最初の”有用で古典を超えた”計算を実証することだ」と示した。つまり、実用化の可能性を示すことだ。それについてグーグルは、「我々は、Willow世代のチップがこの目標の達成に役立つと楽観視している」と示した。
上記からすると、商用化の初期段階に入ろうとしている量子コンピュータ分野は2024年11月から好材料が続いている。今後の「可能性」に対する期待を背景に、関連銘柄の株価が3カ月で10倍以上になった銘柄も浮上し、投資家の注目を集めている。
量子コンピュータ関連銘柄の場合はほとんどが中小型株で現在赤字However, if commercialization and widespread adoption accelerate in the future, the breakeven point may also come sooner. Based on past experiences, there is a tendency for leading companies in the industry to become tenbagger stocks as business performance expands with the commercialization of new technologies and until breakeven is achieved.
The issue lies in the fact that NVIDIA's performance outlook is highly accurate, being based on hyper-scale infrastructure and actual customer demand. However, it cannot be denied that quantum computer-related stocks contain a lot of expectations when viewed optimistically. In addition, within the quantum computer-related stocks, there are currently no clear "top companies," with each company aiming to expand their business by leveraging their respective strengths in quantum technology.Top companiesdo not currently exist in the field of quantum computer-related stocks, and each company is aiming to expand their business by utilizing their respective expertise in quantum technology.
On the other hand,It is expected that the market size of quantum computers will grow tenfold over the next 10 years, and the remarkable progress of Google's "Willow" suggests the possibility of its realization being accelerated. In this field,there is potential for acceleration in achieving this growth.in the medium to long term.There may be a possibility of Tenbagger stocks emerging. It may be a good strategy to incorporate quantum computer-related stocks into a part of the US stock portfolio, recognizing the above risks and high stock price volatility.
Quantum Computer ETF "QTUM", of the constituent stocks of the Quantum Computer ETF, 3 companies with quantum computing as their main business (IONQ、Target Materials、QBTSIn addition, two brands conducting quantum computer-related businesses were added, although they are not part of the QTUM component stocks.QUBT、ARQQwere added.
● $IonQ Inc (IONQ.US)$
Leader in the Quantum Computing Industry。Developing trap ion quantum computers.and introducing them from research institutions to commercial, industrial, and academic applications. Available on all major clouds such as Microsoft's Azure, Amazon.com's AWS, Alphabet's Google, etc.The only quantum hardware available on all major clouds.This marks the highest order intake for the period of April-September.
Leader in the Quantum Computing Industry。Developing trap ion quantum computers.and introducing them from research institutions to commercial, industrial, and academic applications. Available on all major clouds such as Microsoft's Azure, Amazon.com's AWS, Alphabet's Google, etc.The only quantum hardware available on all major clouds.This marks the highest order intake for the period of April-September.
◇Leading the industry.Commercial product portfolio.Possessing.Technical aspectIn the past, they have always achieved milestones faster than planned in the technology roadmap. Their cutting-edge system boasting 35 algorithms and quantum bits, the #AQ35, was achieved a year ahead of schedule.
◇Performance for the July-September 2024 periodisrevenueNext,12.4 million dollarsincreased by 102% year-on-year to exceed the market estimate of 10.56 million dollars.Net loss per shareis0.24 dollarsSo, the slightly widened loss compared to the market expectation of 0.22 dollars and the 0.22 dollars in the same period last year.New ordersreached 63.5 million dollars. The company sidefiscal 2024 full-year revenue forecastThe guidance has been revised upward from the conventional range of 38 million to 42 million dollars to 38.5 million to 42.5 million dollars.
◇Business highlightsFor the July-September quarter of 2024:US Air Force Research Instituteand a $54.5 million contract.Won a contractacquired Qubitekk. IonQ announced that the acquisition is expected to increase short-term order and revenue opportunities.Acquisition of QubitekkStem Inc announced that they believe the acquisition will increase short-term orders and revenue opportunities.
◇Average Target PriceThe stock price is $36.00. The highest target price is $50.00, and the lowest target price is $16.00. There are 8 analysts covering the company's stock, with 5 "Buy" recommendations and 3 "Hold" recommendations. (As of January 10, 2025, according to Bloomberg data)
● $D-Wave Quantum (QBTS.US)$
Leader in quantum computing systems, software, and services.。2011年にアニーリング量子技術を用いた世界初の量子コンピュータを商品化。量子システムやクラウドサービス、アプリケーション開発ツール、およびエンドツーエンドの量子ジャーニーをサポートする専門サービスを提供する。顧客はMastercardやDeloitte、Davidson Technologiesなど、政府や研究機関、企業法人が含まれている。政府や研究機関からの売上高は過去12カ月で大幅に増加している。
Leader in quantum computing systems, software, and services.。2011年にアニーリング量子技術を用いた世界初の量子コンピュータを商品化。量子システムやクラウドサービス、アプリケーション開発ツール、およびエンドツーエンドの量子ジャーニーをサポートする専門サービスを提供する。顧客はMastercardやDeloitte、Davidson Technologiesなど、政府や研究機関、企業法人が含まれている。政府や研究機関からの売上高は過去12カ月で大幅に増加している。
◇Performance for the July-September 2024 periodisrevenueNext,1.9 million dollarsAs a result, it decreased by 27% compared to the same period last year, falling below market expectations of $2.58 million. This was mainly due to a 80% decrease in revenue from professional services due to the timing of new contract signings.Net loss per shareis0.11 dollarsThe loss amount has decreased from $0.12 in the same period last year. The company sideOctober to December quarterisRevenue and order intakeBoth are expected to exceed the July-September quarter,Adjusted EBITDA loss for fiscal year 2024It is expected to fall below the $54.3 million loss in the 2023 fiscal year. (EBITDA is earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.)
◇Business highlights: In August 2024NTT docomoがモバイルネットワークのパフォーマンスを最適化するために、D-Waveテクノロジーで構築されたハイブリッド量子アプリケーションの量産展開を計画していると発表。10月にD-Waveは新興技術の調達と採用を加速するために設計された米国国防総省のTradewinds購入プラットフォームatorderableConsidered as closed.
◇Ballads CEOは1月8日にCNBCの取材でエヌビディアのジェンスン・フアンCEOの発言に対し、次のようにコメントした。「量子にはさまざまなアプローチがある。アニーリングとゲートが2つの主要なアプローチだ。フアン氏のコメントはゲートモデルの量子コンピューターに関しては完全に的外れではないかもしれないが、アニーリング量子コンピューターに関しては100％的外れだ。我々は30年後でも、20年後でも、15年後でもなく、今、量子コンピューティングで企業の困難な問題を解決できるようサポートしている。」また、「D-Waveは、最速のスーパーコンピューター、ちなみに超並列GPUコンピュータでも解決するには何百万年以上かかるような材料シミュレーションの分野における問題を数分で解決することができた」と強調した。
◇Average Target Priceは5.54ドル。最高目標株価は9.00ドル、最低目標株価は2.25ドル。同社株をカバーしているアナリスト数は7人。投資判断「買い」は7人となっている。（2025年1月10日現在、Bloomberg集計）
● $Rigetti Computing (RGTI.US)$
Providing an integrated quantum computing system utilizing superconducting quantum bit technology.Offering custom software and full-stack solutions focused on simulation, optimization, and machine learning applications to customers in finance, pharmaceuticals, defense, and energy. Adopted by US Air Force Research Labs, Fermilab's SQMS Center, and the UK National Quantum Computing Center.
Providing an integrated quantum computing system utilizing superconducting quantum bit technology.Offering custom software and full-stack solutions focused on simulation, optimization, and machine learning applications to customers in finance, pharmaceuticals, defense, and energy. Adopted by US Air Force Research Labs, Fermilab's SQMS Center, and the UK National Quantum Computing Center.
◇July-September period of 2024isrevenueNext,2.4 million dollarsdecreased by 29% year-on-year, falling below the market expectation of 3.33 million dollars. However,Net loss per shareis0.08 dollarsThe market forecasted a loss of $0.09, a decrease from $0.17 in the same period last year. During the earnings call, the management indicated significant progress in technology development and customer engagement.
◇During the earnings call, the company managementNQI of the US governmentNational Quantum Initiative (NQI)Stated that it has a significant impact. However, it is mentioned that there is bipartisan support for the re-approval of the NQI, and it is believed that it will be signed immediately once the new administration is formed. It was also stated that the projects of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) are quite extensive, amounting to nearly 0.3 billion dollars over seven years, and we have a part of that. We are expecting benefits from the budget. We are actively lobbying, focusing on the US government as a key source of funding for our activities. Due to the expiration of the original version of the NQI Act signed in 2018, it is impacting short-term finances including the third quarter and the next quarter until the NQI re-approval is signed.impactStated that it has a significant impact. However, it is mentioned that there is bipartisan support for the re-approval of the NQI, and it is believed that it will be signed immediately once the new administration is formed. It was also stated that the projects of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) are quite extensive, amounting to nearly 0.3 billion dollars over seven years, and we have a part of that. Acquirerevealed that they are trying to acquire.
◇Average Target PriceThe closing price is $5.20. The highest target price is $12.00, and the lowest target price is $2.00. The number of analysts covering the company's shares is 6. There are 6 analyst ratings of 'buy' (as of January 10, 2025, Bloomberg data).
● $Quantum Computing (QUBT.US)$
◇AccessibleProvides affordable quantum machinesAn integrated photonics company that offers affordable quantum machines. Their products are designed to operate at room temperature and low power, available at an affordable price. They have partnerships with NASA, Johns Hopkins University, Los Alamos National Laboratory, etc.
◇AccessibleProvides affordable quantum machinesAn integrated photonics company that offers affordable quantum machines. Their products are designed to operate at room temperature and low power, available at an affordable price. They have partnerships with NASA, Johns Hopkins University, Los Alamos National Laboratory, etc.
◇July-September period of 2024Revenue was 0.1 million dollars, an increase from the previous year's 0.05 million dollars, but below analysts' estimates. The increase in revenue was mainly due to the delivery contract for an underwater quantum LiDAR prototype with Johns Hopkins University. Adjusted net loss per share was $0.06, slightly smaller than the $0.09 loss in the same period last year.
◇Average Target PriceIs at $8.50. The highest target price is $8.50. The company is covered by 2 analysts (1 of whom did not provide a target price). 2 analysts recommend to 'Buy' the stock (as of January 10, 2025, according to Bloomberg).
● $Arqit Quantum (ARQQ.US)$
A cybersecurity company with unique quantum encryption technology.through its quantum-resistant encryption platform, potentialrisks from quantum cyber attacksOffering solutions to protect traditional data and long-term infrastructure. Customers include telecommunications companies, enterprises, and government agencies.SecurityProviding solutions to protect traditional data and long-term infrastructure. Customers include telecommunications companies, enterprises, and government agencies.
A cybersecurity company with unique quantum encryption technology.through its quantum-resistant encryption platform, potentialrisks from quantum cyber attacksOffering solutions to protect traditional data and long-term infrastructure. Customers include telecommunications companies, enterprises, and government agencies.SecurityProviding solutions to protect traditional data and long-term infrastructure. Customers include telecommunications companies, enterprises, and government agencies.
◇The full-year revenue for the fiscal year 2024 (ending in September) was $0.293 million, a significant decrease from $0.64 million in fiscal year 2023. The net loss per share was $4.739, smaller than the previous year's $14.055 loss, but larger than the market estimate of $4.520 loss. The significant decrease in revenue is largely attributed to the company's transition from perpetual license contracts to subscription licenses. While the initial revenue from the transition is lower, it is expected that annual recurring revenue will increase as the consumption of contracted software grows.The full-year revenue for the fiscal year 2024 (ending in September) was $0.293 million, a significant decrease from $0.64 million in fiscal year 2023. The net loss per share was $4.739, smaller than the previous year's $14.055 loss, but larger than the market estimate of $4.520 loss. The significant decrease in revenue is largely attributed to the company's transition from perpetual license contracts to subscription licenses. While the initial revenue from the transition is lower, it is expected that annual recurring revenue will increase as the consumption of contracted software grows.
◇In the fiscal year 2024, there were 13 casesContractSigned contracts (7 in the previous fiscal year). In the EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) region, the management team signed multi-year annual revenue contracts with large end users of government agencies for seven figures (over 1 million dollars). At the Earnings Call, the management stated, "In 2024, there has been an increase in dialogue regarding quantum computing and encryption, which has accelerated, and this trend is expected to continue in 2025."
◇Average Target PriceThe target price is $52.00. The number of analysts covering the company's stock is 1. The investment rating is "Buy". (As of January 10, 2025, according to Bloomberg data)
Risks (partial)
◇The quantum computing market is expected to expand in the medium to long term, but there may be delays in the short term due to various factors.
◇The quantum computing industry is still in its early stages of development, and even the leading companies in the industry have small revenue scales, with profitability prospects in the distant future and negative cash flow.
◇Analysts covering Quantum Computer-related stocks are fewer than 10, and there may be a lower reliability of financial estimates and forecasts compared to large-cap stocks covered by dozens of analysts.
◇Some stocks have had a stock price of less than $1 in the past, and if the stock price remains below $1 for a certain period in the future, there is a risk of delisting.
◇The quantum computing market is expected to expand in the medium to long term, but there may be delays in the short term due to various factors.
◇The quantum computing industry is still in its early stages of development, and even the leading companies in the industry have small revenue scales, with profitability prospects in the distant future and negative cash flow.
◇Analysts covering Quantum Computer-related stocks are fewer than 10, and there may be a lower reliability of financial estimates and forecasts compared to large-cap stocks covered by dozens of analysts.
◇Some stocks have had a stock price of less than $1 in the past, and if the stock price remains below $1 for a certain period in the future, there is a risk of delisting.
Created on January 10, 24 by Market Analyst Julie
Sources: Company documents, Blommberg, various media reports created by MOOMOO Securities
Sources: Company documents, Blommberg, various media reports created by MOOMOO Securities
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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投資家T : I found it very interesting to read.
As we move from semiconductors to AI to quantum computers, I feel like this is the direction things are heading, so I want to keep an eye on it.