R.I.P Goldilocks. The soft landing died today. Team higher-f...
R.I.P Goldilocks. The soft landing died today.
Team higher-for-longer (and their hawkish brethren at the Fed) continues to focus on badly lagging indicators like rent and services inflation, while ignoring the fact that retail sales ex-gas 3mma on-year-ago is up 2.9% (nominal), a new cycle low and well BELOW levels which were consistent w/ 2% inflation in the last economic cycle. The last 3 months were DOWN on the previous 3 months, so we are also decelerating sharply.
Noticeable labor market weakness will soon follow, in line with leading indicators like declining quits rates and NFIB hiring intentions.
Meanwhile, the misplaced H4L narrative is preventing the Fed from getting ahead of the slowdown.
This is how business cycles end in the textbooks, which apparently too few have read. I think Powell has, but he lacks either the will or the power to drag the FOMC to where it needs to be.
We'll get sufficient further weakness to push them to a June cut, but it will be too little, too late. They are already behind the curve.
Team higher-for-longer (and their hawkish brethren at the Fed) continues to focus on badly lagging indicators like rent and services inflation, while ignoring the fact that retail sales ex-gas 3mma on-year-ago is up 2.9% (nominal), a new cycle low and well BELOW levels which were consistent w/ 2% inflation in the last economic cycle. The last 3 months were DOWN on the previous 3 months, so we are also decelerating sharply.
Noticeable labor market weakness will soon follow, in line with leading indicators like declining quits rates and NFIB hiring intentions.
Meanwhile, the misplaced H4L narrative is preventing the Fed from getting ahead of the slowdown.
This is how business cycles end in the textbooks, which apparently too few have read. I think Powell has, but he lacks either the will or the power to drag the FOMC to where it needs to be.
We'll get sufficient further weakness to push them to a June cut, but it will be too little, too late. They are already behind the curve.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
razo2 : stagflation. wait for oil to go higher as summer comes.
JonSnow : Well, enough money to buy up bitshit, so why should they lower?
razo2 JonSnow : the day oil hit 85 is the day JP will lose his job for sure. there will be a short squeeze. draining their oil reserve for the sake of Biden is just the worse move US can do. we are not even talking about drilling for new wells.
SPR is at records low and they do not have the refinery to even feed the country with oil or replace the reserve. I guess the next war is US sends a CIA spy to Venezuela and say they have connections with Putin/North Korea/China/ (fill in the blanks) to invade the US, or some shit they're gonna make up to take over.
JP cut rates. oh boy will I go all in buying oil with all my gains. I cant wait for JP to do that. really.
Seraphicall razo2 : He’s crazy if he does that cut now.
razo2 Seraphicall : if you look at his perspective and his words recently. he said he might cut rates BEFORE the 3% target. the federal government is always the person that knows exactly what shit is boiling in the banks.
just to give you an idea back in 2008, the federal government already knows Lehmann will collapse 1 week before it happens. so does JP knows some shit is boiling in the banks?
101860379 : I guess at the end of the day. At the end of it all. It’s a “market”. And “market” essentially means it’s dictated by the price of the people. With people it’s emotions, sentiments, etc.
Normal people won’t appreciate what you have shared. And therefore just follow fed sentiments and fed movements. Since feds the fab for the past year or so.
We simple people only.