Scenario 1 is the most likely outcome; Scenario 2 is less probable but could result in a significant price increase, worth betting on; Scenario 3 is the riskiest, though it may offer short-term profit opportunities.
Given these scenarios, I’ve decided to invest cautiously.
Buying Strategy:
Since licensed platforms only support long positions, I’ve chosen to dollar-cost average my investments. With Bitcoin currently around 58,000 HKD, I’ll start with 1,000 HKD and reassess monthly based on the election and price trends.
Selling Strategy:
I’ll divide the 1,000 HKD into three parts:
Hold one-third until September-October; if Bitcoin rises above 66,000 HKD following the rate cut, I’ll sell.
Hold one-third until October-November; monitor the election and Harris’s stance on Bitcoin. If Harris is likely to win and her stance remains unchanged, I’ll sell. If she changes her stance, I’ll sell around 70,000 HKD.
Hold the final third until December-January 2025; by then, the election results should be clear. If the outlook is unfavorable, I’ll sell quickly. If stable, I’ll hold and wait for potential gains from new policies.