Rate Cuts, Sector Rotations & Selloffs
Throughout the recent couple of weeks, the stock market has experienced some really goofy price action spurred by mostly unusual or insufficient interest rate decisions.
Firstly, the BOJ decided to hike Japan interest rates for the first time in years, with an interest rate close to 0 in the past.
This allowed investors to carry trade, where they borrow yen for basically free and exchange for USD to purchase US equity.
![Rate Cuts, Sector Rotations & Selloffs](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/101785696/20240807/1722990079888-2a8d308b52.webp/big?area=101&is_public=true)
You can see how the interest rate was literally negative or close to 0 for most of the 2010s onwards, with a sudden rise and increasing, to 0.25 basis points and beyond.
The $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$ fell a shocking 10%+, spurring a chain reaction that impacted the other asian markets, alongside a selloff in US equities which were purchased in carry trades.
![Nikkei 225 Daily](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/101785696/20240807/1722990264912-1a47ead7c1.png/big?area=101&is_public=true)
![S&P 500 Daily](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/101785696/20240807/1722990303544-1c346333ad.png/big?area=101&is_public=true)
Following the BOJ rate hikes was the recent concerns of the US entering a possible recession, causing both pressure to the FEDs to cut interest rates, as well as a sector rotation into more defensive stocks or small-cap stocks that would benefit from lower rates more.
Such was why the $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ Russel 2000 Index initially outpaced the S&P, before falling alongside everything else when the carry trade selloff occured.
![Russel 2000 Index Daily](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/101785696/20240807/1722990453214-9607f6f517.png/big?area=101&is_public=true)
Not only did the major markets essentially shit itself, but the USD/JPY currency pair took a massive hit as well, losing close to 10% in just a couple days.
![USD weakening to the JPY](https://sgsnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/101785696/20240807/1722990577721-9bacc9f917.png/big?area=101&is_public=true)
This was what the BOJ intended to happen as the JPY was extremely weak throughout 2024 (my brother went to Japan for holiday and bought alot of stuff lol).
With effects that largely impact companies conducting imports and exports with Japan, as well as those carrying out business in that country.
Going forward I will likely be putting my money into more REITs like $Mapletree Ind Tr (ME8U.SG)$ as lower interest rates usually improve REIT performance, as we saw a couple weeks ago when some REITs spiked in value. (I got lucky on this REIT).
$Aviva Investors Multi-Strategy Target Return Fund (LU1206712785.MF)$ as the MMF yields will likely decline.
Not to mention the rate cuts typically take at least a year or so to take affect, which by then I expect a lot of volatility from the main indexes and hence will move into more defensive sectors such as $The Health Care Select Sector SPDR® Fund (XLV.US)$ and $Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU.US)$ , through $AB International Health Care Portfolio (LU0289739699.MF)$ and $BNP Paribas Funds Aqua (LU1695653177.MF)$ .
I will also be removing my exposure to Asia as I've mentioned before, Moomoo lacks proper Asia funds that I like, and their current situation is extremely volatile and risky.
I however, still do think tech has a way forward throughout this year as $Palantir (PLTR.US)$ and $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ had good earnings, hence i will keep my exposure to $Fidelity Funds-Global Technology Fund (LU1823568750.MF)$ .
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FinanceCalculus : Look at the name i am definitely not a follower![joy 😂](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/img-apple-64/1f602.png)