Back in October this year, I thought I had a great idea to swing-trade $RBLX and buy puts when it was about 29 bucks per share. My rationale at the time was:
Current ratio is low (about 1.1) - they will need to refinance at some time within the next year. Issuing debt is problematic due to interest rates and offering shares will dilute the price and cause short-term downward price action.
Revenue has been decreasing/staying flat for the past few quarters
Bookings have been decreasing/staying flat for the past few quarters
I didn't see any "big releases" that would drive substantially higher numbers related to points 2 and 3.
The company is very unprofitable
Q2 loss was -$284M
Net cash flow was -2.4B
P/S was highly inflated (at the time around 7-8): much higher than some of its comps
They are focusing their dollars on advertising, which hasn't been successful. Also, wtf does it mean to advertise to a platform where the audience are children will little financial autonomy?
$Roblox (RBLX.US)$