RGTI
Rigetti Computing
-- 15.4400 NVDA
NVIDIA
-- 139.930 LAES
SEALSQ Corp
-- 8.760 TSLA
Tesla
-- 454.130 KULR
KULR Technology
-- 4.8000 
Understand the logic behind the repeated record highs in the price of gold with one reading, how much more can it rise? Is it possible to get in now?
RecentlyGold has continued to rise, reaching new highs,once again sparking everyone's attention to gold! I remember the last time everyone was so enthusiastic about gold was in September. At that time $XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ near the 2600level, and then continued rising, breaking through2600American dollar.
The questions asked then and now are almost the same:![]()
Those who haven't gotten on the bus are asking if they can get on??
Those already on the bus are asking whether to reduce positions???
A month has passed, and the answers remain unchanged!
Suggestions for those who haven't gotten on boardBuild positions in batches, or directly set up a dollar-cost averaging plan for a strategic layoutTo prevent oneself from not daring to buy when the price rises and wanting to sell when it drops. You may also say, if I am bullish on gold for the long term, why not just make a single purchase and wait for the price to rise? In fact, I don't think there's any problem with doing this operationally. The key is whether you can hold on when gold falls. Some students chase after the rise but lack confidence, especially for high-priced varieties like gold, which are very scary. It's probably unsustainable to drop by 5 points, but for me, if gold can drop by 5 points, it's really a great opportunity to increase my holdings. Last time gold only corrected by one point, I think it's too little, so I didn't add to my position.
So everyone should lay out their gold investments according to their own risk tolerance, otherwise you will find that even assets with high winning rates like gold can still lead to losses!
In order to deepen everyone's understanding of gold and enhance confidence in gold. Next, we will start from the basics and sequentially discuss 4 logical reasons that drive the increase in gold prices:
Firstly, the first reason: geopolitical conflicts.
Gold, as a natural safe-haven asset, has always been said to be valuable in prosperous and chaotic times of ancient times. This means that during times of war, people are more willing to increase their holdings of gold and exchange their cash for gold. Firstly, it can resist inflation and currency devaluation, and secondly, gold is a natural currency that is globally accepted; the USA can sanction the dollar, but can't sanction gold.Recently, the escalating situation in the Middle East and the increasing tensions between North and South Korea have increased the market's demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.Especially in the Middle East, there is quite a feeling that the conflict is expanding again, so next the gold price should continue to benefit from this kind of risk dispute.
The second point is: the Fed interest rate cut.
First of all, it can be confirmed that the next move by the Federal Reserve will definitely beInterest rate cut cycleA rate cut cycle means $U.S. 10-Year Treasury Notes Yield (US10Y.BD)$ overall remains downward,while the yield on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes represents the opportunity cost of holding gold.
As the opportunity cost of holding gold decreases, the price of gold will increase. However, it is important to note that the current market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve are not very strong. Previously, the market expected the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points in November, but ongoing labor and economic data releases indicate that the U.S. economy remains robust and the labor market is also doing well. The Fed has no need to cut rates too quickly to stimulate the economy, as doing so too quickly could lead to a resurgence in inflation, making it difficult for the Fed to achieve its goal of lowering inflation to 2%.
So the current market expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in November. As for the extent of rate cuts in December or next year, it may not be significant, slowing down the rate cut process. However, as long asthe Fed continues to maintain the pace of rate cuts, it is bullish for gold as a whole.Despite fluctuations during the process, as long as the direction remains unchanged, it's fine.
The third point is about the USA presidential election.
The U.S. election has both bullish and bearish impacts.The bullish sentiment is due to the uncertainty brought by the U.S. election, which will lead to funds flowing into gold for safe haven. For example, many hedge funds, although starting to pour crazily into U.S. stocks again, not all of them are flowing in. They are still holding onto a significant amount of cash to wait for the direction to be confirmed after the election before positioning. The bearish sentiment is because Trump's chances of winning are higher now.
Trump's policy is to implement a strong U.S. dollar measure to boost the global currency status of the U.S. dollar and increase its value.If the U.S. dollar strengthens, then the role of gold as a global currency will diminish, and the gold price will naturally decline. From the perspective of the international gold price measurement unit, it can also be seen that international gold is measured by $XAU/USD (XAUUSD.CFD)$ It is said that gold and the US dollar are inherently negatively correlated.
Trump's presidency is mainly bullish for US stocks. As a businessman, Trump is more inclined towards the America First principle than Harris, advocating for increasing tariffs internationally, not only targeting China but also the European Union; domestically, advocating for lowering tax rates to allow more profit space for businesses. So, I continue to be bullish on US stocks because whether it's Trump or Harris in office, they both uphold American interests, which is bullish for US companies. It's just that one is more aggressive and the other is relatively less so.
The final point is the long-term logic driving the rise in gold - a crisis of trust in the US dollar.
As the global currency, the US dollar is tied to gold and oil. The United States' strong military, technology, and financial power have made the US dollar the global currency, making it an artificially global currency. Before the US dollar, the British pound also played a role as a global currency. However, the truly natural and universally accepted currency in the world is only gold and silver. Just like it is said in textbooks:Gold and silver are not naturally currencies, but currencies are naturally gold and silver.。
So what is the source of the trust crisis facing the US dollar? It stems from the US's excessive issuance of debts.
As of now, the US national debt has reached 35 trillion, higher than the annual GDP. Do you think the US will be able to repay this amount? Can it afford to repay it?
The usa is able to issue so much debt because of its global currency status, as the dollar is the global currency, used for international trade settlements by everyone.
Most countries' foreign exchange reserves are also mostly held in reserve in dollars. Whether earned or reserved, dollars cannot just sit there; if not used, they automatically depreciate!
The usa is able to issue so much debt because of its global currency status, as the dollar is the global currency, used for international trade settlements by everyone.
Most countries' foreign exchange reserves are also mostly held in reserve in dollars. Whether earned or reserved, dollars cannot just sit there; if not used, they automatically depreciate!
So what can you buy with it? U.S. Treasury notes.Because compared to other assets, U.S. Treasury notes remain the safest asset, the u.s. 10-year treasury notes yield is considered a risk-free rate of return in asset models. However, due to the inflating debt of the usa, the usa is unable to repay. It's just borrowing new debt to pay off the old one, and there will be a problem sooner or later.So many central banks have simply said that they will buy fewer U.S. bonds and stockpile more gold. Someday the dollar may become worthless, but gold never will!So you can see from the news that in recent years, more and more central banks of countries are increasing their gold reserves, such as Poland, Turkey, india, china, etc.
The behavior of central banks around the world to increase holdings has also driven up the price of gold.Moreover, with changes in international situations, deepening trust crisis in the dollar, more countries will increase their gold reserves, supporting the long-term logic of rising gold prices.
The above four points are the main rationale for investing in gold.If you can deeply understand the event transmission here, the relationship between different assets, your understanding of gold can surpass the vast majority of people.![]()
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Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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104089273 : Wonder if Trump end the Ukraine Russia war, how much the gold price will drop?
kamalz : thanks for sharing.
没有咖啡的吃茶店 OP kamalz :![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
103206791 : ok
Lisa88 104089273 : I believe it’s unlikely that a single event in Ukraine has caused gold to turn bearish. Instead, multiple factors should be considered, especially given the numerous global events occurring in the months leading up to the US election. Public sentiment is increasingly leaning towards heightened geopolitical tensions. I would see Gold to be bullish at least for the next 3-6 months.
sean lys : Ukraine Russia saga does not play much role in the gold price now, gold price is more affected by middle east conflict and US economy now. There's one more huge event that will be affecting gold which is China Taiwan relationship. If China ever invade Taiwan to divert attention of its own economic and social problem (like Russia did), you can expect gold to reach 3000.