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aims to identify stocks with rock solid growth fundamentals with 10x potential. also dabbles a little bit in trading
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LionS MOO : y/y growth only 36% for Q3 24. But current share price already doubled vs last year July. It doesn't make sense. The bubbles are too big.
MomentumPython1337 OP LionS MOO : the share price doubled because back then TSM was seriously undervalued for the forward earnings and revenue growth. people were sleeping on AI and didn't realize how much TSM could earn from this and its position as the world's biggest semicon fabricator
forward PEG ratio still hovering near 1.1x which is, by peter lynch standards, fairly valued. sure you have differences between sectors, but TSM deserves a much higher premium given its leadership in semiconductors imo.
it's definitely not at bubble levels. i would need to see something like PEG ratio of 2x at the very least to start getting worried.
the bear case is that AI demand will slow down in coming quarters and that causes revenue growth to be below the forecasts listed here, so the denominator (earnings growth) contracts, then the PEG ratio will expand and hit 2x maybe even 2.5x. at that point i would not take a long position on TSM.
so far there is no data to support this slowdown in demand yet. i remain fairly bullish.
p.s. data from NASDAQ btw