Relief bounce in progress, but caution ahead with NFP numbers tonight

$E-mini S&P 500 Futures(MAR5) (ESmain.US)$ (4 Hour Chart) -[BEARISH ↘ *]S&P pushed higher and is now approaching short-term resistance at 5630.75. We turn bearish with low conviction for now, expecting price to drop lower towards 5503.00 support. Stochastic indicator is testing resistance where price reacted in the past.

$USD (USDindex.FX)$ (4 Hour Chart) -[BEARISH ↘ **]As expected, DXY dropped lower. We remain bearish as long as price is below 104.190 resistance. A further drop towards 103.745 is expected. Technical indicators are now advocating for a bearish scenario.

$Gold Futures(FEB5) (GCmain.US)$ (4 Hour Chart) -[NEUTRAL] Price pushed higher and is whipsawing around previous resistance. We turn neutral for now with a slight bullish bias. A candlestick close above 2503.00 resistance will open a short term rise towards 2533 resistance. Price is holding above 21 period EMA, however Stochastics indicator is showing price near resistance.

$Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$ (4 Hour Chart) -[NEUTRAL] We prefer to stay neutral on Nikkei225 as we expect prices to hold between 37400 support level and 40000 resistance level. Technical indicators are leaning towards a bearish scenario.

$HSI Futures(DEC4) (HSImain.HK)$ (4 Hour Chart) -[BULLISH↗ *] HSI has broken above its descending trendline resistance. We maintain a bullish directional bias as long as price holds above the 17000 support level. A push higher towards 17740 resistance level is expected. Technical indicators are mixed, with price holding above 21-EMA and MACD yet to confirm a bullish scenario.

$FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index (.STI.SG)$ (4 Hour Chart) -[BULLISH↗ **] STI is consolidating sideways but still holding above its longer term ascending trendline support. We maintain a bullish directional bias as we expect price to bounce off the ascending trendline support at 3400, before pushing towards 3506 resistance level. Technical indicators currently advocate for a bullish scenario as well.

US stock markets rallied strongly last night having held above 5422 technical support level. $E-mini S&P 500 Futures(MAR5) (ESmain.US)$ and $E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures(MAR5) (NQmain.US)$ rose strongly and closed +1.56% and +3.00% higher respectively, effectively erasing the losses made this week. The strong overnight performance happened mainly due to the announcement that the US government announced plans to exempt chip-equipment makers from Japan, Netherlands and South Korea from new export controls and at the same time implementing stricter rules to prevent sales of strategic importance to a number of Chinese chip makers. This caused stocks like $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$, $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$, $Broadcom (AVGO.US)$, $ASML Holding (ASML.US)$ and $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$ to rally strongly towards the end of the trading session. Nvidia and Broadcom both added at least +12% on the news. With the FOMC interest rate decision behind us, traders will be looking to tonight's NFP data which will be one of the guiding factors for the US Fed rate cut decision in September.

Asian markets took a different tone and opened mixed across the board this morning. Japan's $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$ dropped by -3.21%, erasing the gains made over the last 2 days. This comes as the JPY weakened further along with a weaker manufacturing PMI that underperformed expectations. At the same time, foreign investors in Japanese stocks data also showed a huge outflow as investors look to move their capital elsewhere. $HSI Futures(DEC4) (HSImain.HK)$ edged higher by +0.17% as China's PolitBuro's appointment of a new vice chairman of China's Securitiy Regulatory Commission brought optimism that he would push for harsher enforcement that will revive the economy. At the same time, energy sector saw strong gains with $PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$ climbing more than +2.00% as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalates. Singapore's $FTSE Singapore Straits Time Index (.STI.SG)$ fell by -0.70% as stocks like $Singtel (Z74.SG)$ and $SIA (C6L.SG)$ saw huge losses of -5.19% and -10.19% respectively. The drop in Singtel was due to dividend payments while SIA missed their earnings estimates.

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