Remarks by a prominent figure (Jerome Powell, Chairman of the Federal Reserve Board)
19th
Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve (FRB)
"The US economy is generally strong."
"The labor market has cooled off from its previous overheated state."
"The FOMC continues to focus on its two mandates."
"The FRB is committed to maintaining the strength of the economy."
"The FRB can maintain the strength of the labor force through policy adjustments."
"Rate cuts reflect confidence in the ability to maintain the strength of the labor market and lower inflation."
"The unemployment rate is rising, but still low."
"The labor market is not as tight as before the corona virus."
"Long-term inflation expectations seem to be well restrained."
"I keenly feel that the rise in inflation rate brings significant difficulties."
"The risk of inflation upside is decreasing, while the risk of employment downside is increasing."
"The risks of employment and inflation are almost balanced."
"The FRB is not following a predetermined path."
"The FRB will continue to make decisions at each meeting."
If the easing measures are too slow, there is a possibility of excessive weakening in the labor market and employment.
There is no forecast suggesting that the FRB is in a hurry.
If appropriate, speed up or delay rate cuts, or temporarily pause.
We should not consider the 0.50% rate cut as a new pace.
A sign of determination not to fall behind in rate cuts.
"The labor market has cooled off from its previous overheated state."
"The FOMC continues to focus on its two mandates."
"The FRB is committed to maintaining the strength of the economy."
"The FRB can maintain the strength of the labor force through policy adjustments."
"Rate cuts reflect confidence in the ability to maintain the strength of the labor market and lower inflation."
"The unemployment rate is rising, but still low."
"The labor market is not as tight as before the corona virus."
"Long-term inflation expectations seem to be well restrained."
"I keenly feel that the rise in inflation rate brings significant difficulties."
"The risk of inflation upside is decreasing, while the risk of employment downside is increasing."
"The risks of employment and inflation are almost balanced."
"The FRB is not following a predetermined path."
"The FRB will continue to make decisions at each meeting."
If the easing measures are too slow, there is a possibility of excessive weakening in the labor market and employment.
There is no forecast suggesting that the FRB is in a hurry.
If appropriate, speed up or delay rate cuts, or temporarily pause.
We should not consider the 0.50% rate cut as a new pace.
A sign of determination not to fall behind in rate cuts.
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ジョモりん : What did you think of Mr. Piro's feedback? I found it to be very likable, and the way Pauchan explained things calmly without appearing flustered was good in the press conference. The reporters also seemed mostly calm and showed little dissatisfaction with the answers to their questions.![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
ぴるさん OP ジョモりん : Good evening Jomorin
. Mr. Powell's speech was good, wasn't it? The impression I received this time was that there was a 'previously predicted development' and 'the Fed can endure the pain of inflation (although the inflation rate itself has not been achieved)' which was good to hear. Now, I would like to focus on the following points for future developments:
![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
This time was a good opportunity for me to organize my strategy! Thank you for reaching out to me
1. Can the neutral interest rate be brought to 4.2%?
2. Can the unemployment rate continue to decrease?
3. Can inflation be brought to 2%? (Will the indicators for housing decrease?)
What I want to focus on here is point 1. Regarding point 1, the Fed says they will cut by 0.5% within the year, but it's still not clear whether '0.25% twice within the year' or '0.5% once within the year is not enough.' Therefore, I still want to pay attention to the employment statistics. In that sense, I don't think I can fully go into risk-on, so I'm thinking of taking a 'neutral -> step up one gear' stance, and I think it will be the real deal from October.
ジョモりん ぴるさん OP : ありがとうございます、今後の経済指標と利下げペースの妥当性の維持継続、失業率は急上昇がないか、週の失業保険申請数なども毎回チェックしながら景気後退に向かう兆候がないか、利下げをしたことによるインフレ再燃リスクは低水準に維持出来ているかなど確認すべきことが盛り沢山![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
慎重さは維持しつつ強気を継続します![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
ぴるさん OP ジョモりん : However, the fact that the current economic indicators for the housing system are still high was it about housing construction/housing costs/loans? I thought about that like “interest rate cut → loan amount drop → stay high” from the point that it would rather cut interest rates, but what? In fact, it seems like you've heard stories where “Buffett also recently” increased stock purchases of housing companies?
ジョモりん ぴるさん OP : 需要の高まりはすでに金利が低下傾向により見られるが、土地に制限があり新築はなかなか急速には伸びない可能性、中古物件は低金利で借りられたものという経緯もありなかなか手放しずらく供給も制限される、借り換え需要も急速に進むとは考えづらいみたいな感じでしたっけ
まぁインフレが急速にまた進んでしまうような予測はしていない話をしてましたね![[undefined]](https://static.moomoo.com/nnq/emoji/static/image/default/default-black.png?imageMogr2/thumbnail/36x36 "undefined")
すいませんうる覚えで‥
ぴるさん OP : Well, September, which is close to the decline, will end soon and October will come, so I'm sure it will be okay (
)
Personally, I'm a supporter of virtual currency, so I'm curious about what will happen in the presidential election...