Revised employment statistics
For those who want to know more about the annual standard revisions for US employment statistics (although it's technical...)
・The NFP employment statistics business site survey (CES) surveyed approximately 0.588 million business sites
・Since it is a large amount of data, approximately 32% of the NFP as a whole is collected every month from a sample of approximately 6% of the 9.5 million cases collected by the quarterly Employment and Wage Census (QCEW).
・QCEW is based on state unemployment insurance payment data
・Every year, CES uses the March employment level as a benchmark for the first quarter QCEW employment level.
・In order to match the CES NFP, which is an estimate of the sample, with the QCEW numbers, the March NFP is calculated based on the 1st quarter QCEW. This is called an annual provisional standard revision, and confirmed values are published in the US January employment statistics to be published in February after the beginning of the year.
・NFP utilizes entrepreneurship and closure models and estimates increases or decreases in employment through these. In the final figures announced in February, employment increases and decreases caused by entrepreneurship and closure of business are reflected based on tax payment records that have become available, so there are cases where it is revised downward in 2 stages. Note that in 2023, the NFP was revised downward by 0.33 million people due to this model.
Annual standard revisions for 2023/8 (image, revised downward for 0.306 million people)
bls.gov/web/empsit/ces...
2023, NFP after annual revisions
bls.gov/web/empsit/ces...
Results of revisions to the model for starting a business/going out of business in 2023
bls.gov/web/empsit/ces...
Details of the annual standard revision 👇
bls.gov/sae/publicatio...
bls.gov/opub/hom/topic...
・The NFP employment statistics business site survey (CES) surveyed approximately 0.588 million business sites
・Since it is a large amount of data, approximately 32% of the NFP as a whole is collected every month from a sample of approximately 6% of the 9.5 million cases collected by the quarterly Employment and Wage Census (QCEW).
・QCEW is based on state unemployment insurance payment data
・Every year, CES uses the March employment level as a benchmark for the first quarter QCEW employment level.
・In order to match the CES NFP, which is an estimate of the sample, with the QCEW numbers, the March NFP is calculated based on the 1st quarter QCEW. This is called an annual provisional standard revision, and confirmed values are published in the US January employment statistics to be published in February after the beginning of the year.
・NFP utilizes entrepreneurship and closure models and estimates increases or decreases in employment through these. In the final figures announced in February, employment increases and decreases caused by entrepreneurship and closure of business are reflected based on tax payment records that have become available, so there are cases where it is revised downward in 2 stages. Note that in 2023, the NFP was revised downward by 0.33 million people due to this model.
Annual standard revisions for 2023/8 (image, revised downward for 0.306 million people)
bls.gov/web/empsit/ces...
2023, NFP after annual revisions
bls.gov/web/empsit/ces...
Results of revisions to the model for starting a business/going out of business in 2023
bls.gov/web/empsit/ces...
Details of the annual standard revision 👇
bls.gov/sae/publicatio...
bls.gov/opub/hom/topic...
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