RP4和调电费激励股价 国能飙6%冲破15令吉

TNB's stock price has been boosted, breaking through 15 Ringgit at one point this morning, reaching a historical high after dividend adjustments.

TNB opened this morning at 14.42 Ringgit, then surged by 6.06% to reach 15.04 Ringgit.

The stock price later retraced slightly between 15 Ringgit, but there is still a large volume of bid orders coming in, believed to be bullish on TNB's profitability from RP4 and the increase in electricity tariffs.

Noteworthy is the strong increase in demand for electricity, with TNB's net profit for the third quarter of the 2024 fiscal year skyrocketing by 85.04% year-on-year to 1.584 billion Ringgit.

In the third quarter, revenue increased by 6.58% year-on-year to 14.3 billion 51.6 million Ringgit.

National Energy netted a total of 3.7 billion 44.1 million Ringgit in the first 9 months of the current fiscal year, a significant 71.24% increase compared to the same period last year, with revenue expanding by 7.47% to 42.3 billion 58.8 million Ringgit.

National Energy stated that the company's performance in the first 9 months of this year remained stable, in line with Malaysia's economic growth performance. The country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to grow by 4.8% to 5.3% this year, hence the company's performance forecast for this year remains robust.

National Energy stated that the government has yet to decide on approving the proposal to raise the basic electricity tariffs for the fourth regulatory period (RP4) from 2025 to 2027 by 14% starting from January next year.

National Energy's Chief Financial Officer Datuk Nazmi mentioned that the tariff structure implemented since 2014 will remain effective, with no changes to the related tariff and tariff structure until June 30, 2025.

He stated at a media briefing today that the government will continue to provide affordable electricity rates, benefiting 85% of around 9 million domestic consumers.

"The government will take time to review the tariff structure and announce the revised structure before July next year. This will be based on market trends over the next 6 months, including considerations of fuel and natural gas prices for forecasting."

Guoneng proposed yesterday to increase the basic electricity tariff from the current 39.95 cents per kilowatt-hour to 45.62 cents starting from July 1st next year, an increase of 14.2%.

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Analysts believe that with the approval of the government's fourth regulatory period (RP4) from 2025 to 2027, the national energy will enter a new era, prompting analysts to suggest buying Guoneng.

Currently, Morgan Stanley has given Guoneng the highest fair price of 20.60 Ringgit, which is approximately 37% higher than the current market price of 15 Ringgit.

According to the latest press release, the government has approved to increase the basic electricity tariff from the current 39.95 cents per kilowatt-hour to 45.62 cents, an increase of 14.2%.

Guoneng suggested to the government to implement a new basic electricity tariff from July 1st, 2025. The electricity rate and electricity structure will remain unchanged until June 30th, 2025.

In response, analysts from Guosen Investment Bank stated that this is good news for Guoneng because higher electricity tariffs and capital expenditure can drive Guoneng's performance stronger.

It is worth noting that the annual capital expenditure is expected to reach 14.3 billion Ringgit, a significant increase of 1.08 times compared to the amount in the third regulatory period.

As for operating expenses, compared to the third regulatory period, they have also increased by 16%, to 20.8 billion Ringgit. The regulatory ROI remains at 7.3%, allowing TNB to make necessary investments to ensure a reliable electricity supply to meet customer demand.

Overall, analysts are optimistic about the momentum in the fourth regulatory period, with capital expenditure exceeding the original target of 8.6 billion Ringgit to 9.6 billion Ringgit.

"Nevertheless, we still await further disclosure from TNB, as it is currently uncertain whether TNB will have the right to obtain the total net regulatory return based on permitted capital expenditure."

Analysts maintain TNB's net profit forecast at the current stage, believing that if all capital expenditures are included, the net regulatory return is expected to increase by 5% to 7%.

Analysts continue to recommend a "Buy" rating with a Target Price of 16.60 Ringgit.

On the other hand, CECEP Solar Energy stood out in the bidding of the 5th large-scale solar project (LSS5) at opening a 500-megawatt large-scale solar photovoltaic power station in Kedah.

CECEP Solar Energy reported to Bursa Malaysia on Thursday that its subsidiary, CECEP Renewables Sdn Bhd, received a notification from the Energy Commission on the 23rd of this month.

CECEP Solar Energy stated that the project aligns with the company's renewable energy growth goals and can support the company in achieving energy transition initiatives.

Analysts are optimistic about CECEP Solar Energy winning the LSS5 project because it can further strengthen its domestic green footprint.

Analysts at Tanjong Securities also hold a bullish view that the project can increase CECEP Solar Energy's renewable energy project portfolio, which currently includes floating photovoltaic with hydropower and concentrated solar power plants.

"We expect the LSS5 project to go live between 2026 and 2027, completely in line with the marketing timeline set by the Energy Commission."

In addition, analysts suggest that the renewable energy projects in CECEP Solar Energy's hands will act as catalysts and form part of the national energy transformation roadmap.

Furthermore, TNB Generation Sdn Bhd, the power generation business arm of CECEP Solar Energy, also stands to benefit from the growth in demand driven by data centers.

The securities analyst continues to reiterate a 'Buy' rating, while maintaining the target price at 17.30 Ringgit unchanged.