S&P 500 Rally Powers Ahead: Where Will the Stock Market Go from Here?
As 2023 draws to a close, Wall Street's predictions of doom on the economy seem to be falling short. The $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ has rebounded quickly, rising in nine out of the last ten sessions and increasing by 7.2% over the past two weeks. This is leading many investors to believe that the rally may continue.
What is behind the market's U-turn?
US Departmentof the Treasury has announced smaller-than-expected increases in the size of longer-term debt auctions, while the Federal Reserve has hinted that interest rates are unlikely to rise again before the end of the year. As a result, government bond yields, which have been responsible for much of the recent volatility, have dropped after surpassing 5% for the first time in 16 years in October. This has given stock market bulls confidence.
Investors are trying to position for a year-end rally
Some investors have been pouring money into U.S. stock exchange-traded and mutual funds, while others have abandoned trades that would benefit from market turmoil. According to LSEG Lipper Global Fund Flows, these funds drew approximately $4.2 billion in the week ending November 8th, one of the largest hauls this fall and marking a three-week streak of inflows.
Hedge funds and other money managers have reduced their bearish bets against the S&P 500 to the lowest levels since June 2022, while bets against Nasdaq have fallen to the lowest level since March. This suggests that traders are becoming more optimistic about the direction of the markets.
The $CBOE Volatility S&P 500 Index (.VIX.US)$, also known as the "fear gauge," has fallen significantly from its October highs and has recently declined for eight consecutive sessions. This indicates that traders are less interested in insurance-like contracts that protect them from sudden drops in the market, and are instead expecting the markets to remain stable.
Where will the stock market go from here?
Two of $Bank of America (BAC.US)$'s leading markets strategists struck a rare agreeable tone on Friday, each prophesying gains ahead for equities — at least in the near term.
Chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett broke from his usual bearish view to say technicals no longer stand in the way of a year-end rally for the S&P 500 Index. And Savita Subramanian, head of US equity and quantitative strategy and an optimist on stocks this year, said now was a better time to buy the US benchmark relative to its July peak.
Here are the current 2023 targets from top strategists.
● Maximum target: 4,700
● Minimum target: 3,900
● Average target: 4,358
● Median Target: 4,450
Source: WSJ, Bloomberg, CNBC
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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