Top News Outlook for tonight Following President Trump's nomination of veteran hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, global stock markets rose. Bond yields declined, the dollar weakened, and gold prices fell.
According to Goldman Sachs trader Scott Rubner, the year-end rally is expected to start this week, with the index rising to 6,200.$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$index is expected to rise to 6,200. ●$Amazon (AMZN.US)$is working on one of the most ambitious projects in the tech industry to ease its dominance in the AI chip market.$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$is working on one of the most ambitious projects in the tech industry to ease its dominance in the AI chip market. In Europe, the rapid decrease in gas reserves and the supply reduction from Moscow are increasing the likelihood of a new energy crisis. Due to the impact of the conflict in Ukraine, this year's gas prices have increased by about 45%. Italy's Unicredit has made a takeover proposal to Banca BPM through a stock exchange worth 10 billion euros (10.6 billion dollars). The bank is also progressing with the acquisition of Commerzbank, opening a second major acquisition front.
Will the appointment of Mr. Besent as Treasury Secretary bring stability to Trump's bold policies? The market views Scott Besent's nomination as Treasury Secretary under the Trump administration as a stabilizing factor. Coming from Wall Street, his moderate stance is being valued compared to Trump's radical statements during the election campaign. Besent aims to maintain the dollar's status as the key currency by implementing Trump's tax reduction policy while combining tariff introduction and expenditure restraint to reduce the fiscal deficit. Besent's nomination has led to lower yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds and a weaker dollar, reflecting the market's optimistic view. However, concerns remain about Trump's unorthodox economic policies and how Besent will balance market expectations with the President's demands.
Wall Street remains bullish, with outlook for stocks, bonds, and the dollar in 2025 Wall Street strategists are maintaining a bullish stance on US stocks, predicting a year-end target of around 6,600 points. An expected increase of 11.7% from current levels.
U.S. bond buyers including Pacific Investment Management (PIMCO) are returning to the bond market and evaluating the yield level above 4% as attractive.
According to the Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey, the dollar is expected to maintain its strength at the start of 2025, while facing challenges such as inflation and expanding fiscal deficits. While spreads remain narrow in the corporate bond market, short positions are increasing, suggesting that investors are hedging against downside risks. Optimism towards U.S. stocks continues, and Goldman's Mr. Rubner jokingly mentioned looking forward to the S&P500 reaching 7,000 points.
With the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve continuing, inflation indicators are in focus this week. The inflation indicators released on the Wednesday just before Thanksgiving in the U.S. may affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cutting policy, drawing investors' attention. The PCE price index excluding food and energy is predicted to show the largest annual increase since April, potentially heightening concerns over sustained inflation pressure. Chinese survey data, inflation in the Eurozone, and the possibility of a significant rate cut in New Zealand are among the key economic indicators to watch this week. In corporate earnings, insights into consumer health and product sales performance can be gained from the upcoming announcements by CrowdStrike, HP, Dell, Best Buy, and Macy's. Related articles:This week's earnings and economic calendar (11/25~11/29) focuses on US economic indicators and year-end shopping season! Will the bullish year-end market be the focus?
The surge in Tesla stock is due to market enthusiasm, according to UBS. UBS analysts stated in a report,$Tesla (TSLA.US)$Behind the sharp rise in the stock price after the U.S. presidential election, there is a significant impact from the market's enthusiastic investor sentiment, not necessarily due to substantial improvement in the company's business foundation, as warned. Since Donald Trump's election, several policy proposals that may favor Tesla have been put forward, but UBS's analyst team led by Joseph Spak points out that these changes may not necessarily be an absolute tailwind for Tesla. For example, if tax deductions for electric vehicle (EV) purchases are eliminated, Tesla may be forced to lower prices. Furthermore, while regulatory easing under the Trump administration may be advantageous for AI projects including self-driving cars, it is viewed that even if Tesla can utilize regulatory easing to advance the introduction of Robotaxi, the impact is considered to be limited.
Following the introduction of China's groundbreaking DeepSeek technology, Wall Street giants have revised their investment outlooks for the Chinese market.
pirocchi : I don't care about others' opinions. Just believe in the lighthouse that guides towards a bright future and wait.