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Outlook for the USA market: S&P500 to 6,200 in year-end rally=GS USA MSTR, adds approximately 830 billion yen worth of bitcoin purchases.

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moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Nov 25, 2024 22:32
Outlook for the USA market: S&P500 to 6,200 in year-end rally=GS USA MSTR, adds approximately 830 billion yen worth of bitcoin purchases.
Good evening, Moomoo users!Tonight's analysis of NY stocks.
Market Overview
米国市場スタート、優良株で構成するダウ工業株30種平均は88.98ドル高の44385.49ドル、ハイテク株比率が高いナスダック総合株価指数が136.94ポイント高の19140.59で始まった。米国大型株である500社の銘柄で構成するS&P500種平均は22.94ポイント高の5992.280。
Outlook for the USA market: S&P500 to 6,200 in year-end rally=GS USA MSTR, adds approximately 830 billion yen worth of bitcoin purchases.
Top News
Outlook for tonight
Following President Trump's nomination of veteran hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary, global stock markets rose. Bond yields declined, the dollar weakened, and gold prices fell.
According to Goldman Sachs trader Scott Rubner, the year-end rally is expected to start this week, with the index rising to 6,200. $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ index is expected to rise to 6,200.
$Amazon (AMZN.US)$ is working on one of the most ambitious projects in the tech industry to ease its dominance in the AI chip market. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ is working on one of the most ambitious projects in the tech industry to ease its dominance in the AI chip market.
In Europe, the rapid decrease in gas reserves and the supply reduction from Moscow are increasing the likelihood of a new energy crisis. Due to the impact of the conflict in Ukraine, this year's gas prices have increased by about 45%.
Italy's Unicredit has made a takeover proposal to Banca BPM through a stock exchange worth 10 billion euros (10.6 billion dollars). The bank is also progressing with the acquisition of Commerzbank, opening a second major acquisition front.
Will the appointment of Mr. Besent as Treasury Secretary bring stability to Trump's bold policies?
The market views Scott Besent's nomination as Treasury Secretary under the Trump administration as a stabilizing factor. Coming from Wall Street, his moderate stance is being valued compared to Trump's radical statements during the election campaign.
Besent aims to maintain the dollar's status as the key currency by implementing Trump's tax reduction policy while combining tariff introduction and expenditure restraint to reduce the fiscal deficit.
Besent's nomination has led to lower yields on 10-year US Treasury bonds and a weaker dollar, reflecting the market's optimistic view. However, concerns remain about Trump's unorthodox economic policies and how Besent will balance market expectations with the President's demands.
Wall Street remains bullish, with outlook for stocks, bonds, and the dollar in 2025
Wall Street strategists are maintaining a bullish stance on US stocks, predicting a year-end target of around 6,600 points. An expected increase of 11.7% from current levels.
U.S. bond buyers including Pacific Investment Management (PIMCO) are returning to the bond market and evaluating the yield level above 4% as attractive.
According to the Bloomberg Markets Live Pulse survey, the dollar is expected to maintain its strength at the start of 2025, while facing challenges such as inflation and expanding fiscal deficits.
While spreads remain narrow in the corporate bond market, short positions are increasing, suggesting that investors are hedging against downside risks.
Optimism towards U.S. stocks continues, and Goldman's Mr. Rubner jokingly mentioned looking forward to the S&P500 reaching 7,000 points.
With the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve continuing, inflation indicators are in focus this week.
The inflation indicators released on the Wednesday just before Thanksgiving in the U.S. may affect the Federal Reserve's interest rate-cutting policy, drawing investors' attention.
The PCE price index excluding food and energy is predicted to show the largest annual increase since April, potentially heightening concerns over sustained inflation pressure.
Chinese survey data, inflation in the Eurozone, and the possibility of a significant rate cut in New Zealand are among the key economic indicators to watch this week.
In corporate earnings, insights into consumer health and product sales performance can be gained from the upcoming announcements by CrowdStrike, HP, Dell, Best Buy, and Macy's.
Related articles:This week's earnings and economic calendar (11/25~11/29) focuses on US economic indicators and year-end shopping season! Will the bullish year-end market be the focus?
The surge in Tesla stock is due to market enthusiasm, according to UBS.
UBS analysts stated in a report, $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ Behind the sharp rise in the stock price after the U.S. presidential election, there is a significant impact from the market's enthusiastic investor sentiment, not necessarily due to substantial improvement in the company's business foundation, as warned.
Since Donald Trump's election, several policy proposals that may favor Tesla have been put forward, but UBS's analyst team led by Joseph Spak points out that these changes may not necessarily be an absolute tailwind for Tesla. For example, if tax deductions for electric vehicle (EV) purchases are eliminated, Tesla may be forced to lower prices.
Furthermore, while regulatory easing under the Trump administration may be advantageous for AI projects including self-driving cars, it is viewed that even if Tesla can utilize regulatory easing to advance the introduction of Robotaxi, the impact is considered to be limited.
キングスウッド、ビットコインは依然として主流の投資ポートフォリオに適さないと指摘
●ウェルスマネジメント企業キングスウッドのルパート・トンプソン氏は、 $Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ は依然として主流の投資ポートフォリオに適した投資対象ではないと考えている。その理由として、投機的な性質が価格の大幅な変動を招きやすい点を挙げている。
●トンプソン氏は、ビットコインは「極端なボラティリティを示し、その価格変動は純粋に投機によって動かされており、基礎的な価値に基づくものではない」と述べている。トランプ氏が米大統領選挙で勝利して以来、ビットコインは最大の勝者となっているが、2021年と2022年の大幅な上昇の後、一部の期間で急激な下落も経験している点に注意が必要だとしている。
●一方で、トンプソン氏は、ビットコインは「以前のような小規模なニッチ投資ではなくなった」とも指摘している。
マイクロストラテジー、時間外取引で一時4%超上昇
$Strategy (MSTR.US)$ It invested approximately $5.4 billion to purchase 55,500 bitcoins from November 18th to 24th.
The average price paid per bitcoin by the company is reported to be $97,862.
Related articles:MicroStrategy acquired 0.0555 million bitcoin for $5.4 billion. The total shareholding is 0.3867 million bitcoin worth $21.9 billion.
moomoo News Zeber
Source: moomoo, Bloomberg
This article utilizes auto-translation in some parts.
Outlook for the USA market: S&P500 to 6,200 in year-end rally=GS USA MSTR, adds approximately 830 billion yen worth of bitcoin purchases.
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more
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