Seizing Opportunity: Locking in High Interest Rates with Long-Term Bonds and Treasuries, While Navigating Currency Exchange Risks
In today's market, with fluctuating interest rates and economic uncertainty, it's essential to make savvy investment moves. One strategy catching the eye of many investors is seizing the opportunity to lock in high interest rates with long-term bonds and treasuries, while also considering the currency exchange risks for those buying overseas securities. Let's explore why this strategy is sound and how it could shape your investment approach.
Will Interest rate fall in the future?
The recent trend of the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates to combat inflation has sparked concerns among investors. However, signs suggest that this era of high interest rates might not endure indefinitely. The Fed's projections, outlined in the dot plot, hint at a potential future decline in interest rates over time.
Fed's dot plot March 2024
For instance, in March 2024, the Fed projected interest rates ( $U.S. 1-Year Treasury Bills Yield (US12M.BD)$) for 2024 to range between 4.5% and 4.75%, with a long-term drop to 2.5%.
What happens when interest rate moves?
This is noteworthy because, before the interest rate hike, the 10-year Singapore Savings Bond (SSB) yielded only 1.71%. However, by April 2024, the yield had nearly doubled to 3.21%. If interest rates start to decline, the SSB yield is likely to follow suit.
10 years SSB Interest Rate (March 2020)
10 years SSB Interest Rate (April 2024)
One key concept to understand is the relationship between bond prices and interest rates. When interest rates rise, existing bond prices tend to fall. Conversely, when interest rates drop, existing bond prices typically rise. This phenomenon occurs because investors demand higher yields to compensate for lower rates, leading to fluctuations in bond prices.
Understanding the relationship between bond prices and interest rates is key. When interest rates rise, existing bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This occurs because investors demand higher yields to compensate for lower rates, causing bond prices to fluctuate.
As illustrated, as the Fed increases interest rates (yellow line), existing long-term treasuries' $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$'s prices (red line) decline. If the Fed continues to increase interest rates that would lead to further declines in existing bond and treasuries prices.
However, for investors holding bonds until maturity, price fluctuations are less concerning. At maturity, investors receive the full face value of the bond, regardless of market movements. Thus, for investors focused on generating passive income, the yield and coupon rate of bonds are more important factors to consider. Despite bond price fluctuations, the consistent interest payments provide a reliable income source.
Conversely, as interest rates fall, existing bond prices rise, potentially leading to capital gains for investors interested in trading opportunities.
How can we benefit from higher interest rate now?
Given this landscape, investors are seeking safe, long-term, high-interest investments, preferably backed by the government or reputable entities, might want to start locking in the high interest rate with long-term investment grade bonds and treasuries.
For example, Temasek-linked long-term bonds like $Astrea7A1 4.125%320527# (V7AB.SG)$ and $Astrea VI3%B310318# (6AZB.SG)$ are offering attractive yields to maturity exceeding 3.8%. Similarly, Singapore's government long-term bonds $SIGB 2 3/4 03/01/46 (SG31A7000004.BD)$ offer yields to maturity exceeding 3.4%. Additionally, long-term US Treasuries provide yields to maturity exceeding 4.9%. Securing these high yields now could prove advantageous, particularly if interest rates decrease in the future.
However, it's essential to consider the currency exchange risks associated with investing in overseas bonds and treasuries. With the $USD (USDindex.FX)$ rate on the rise, there's a risk that currency exchange rates could decline, resulting in potential losses when converting returns back into the investor's home currency. This risk is especially pertinent for investors buying bonds denominated in foreign currencies.
In the current market climate, where bond and treasury investments are gaining traction due to their stability and potential returns, it's essential to align our investment strategy accordingly. Whether it's seizing the opportunity to lock in high yields with long-term bonds and treasuries, while considering currency exchange risks, or diversifying our portfolio to mitigate risks, staying informed and adaptable is key to success in today's market.
By capitalizing on the chance to lock in high interest rates with long-term bonds and treasuries, while navigating currency exchange risks, investors can position themselves for financial stability and growth in the face of market uncertainty.
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
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