半導体はもはや１つのアセット！ 長期投資を考えよう！

Today, I would like to write again about semiconductors.

For those who do not yet have semiconductor stocks or exposure to the sector,"I can't buy at such a high level," "NVIDIA will have the same fate as Tesla," "Semiconductors are in a bubble situation at the moment."Do you trust the opinions of experts that you talk to?

What to believe and what to invest in is different for each person, but as the sender, I feel that the above content is quite off the mark. In other words,Content that you should not believeI feel like it is.

First of all, as a specific stock, NVIDIA may follow in the footsteps of Tesla... I think it's a possible story. Even if you can enjoy explosive profits as a dominant player, eventually competitors will emerge, profit will decline, stock prices will halve... that could happen, right 😅

However, when considering the semiconductor sector, in a world line where NVIDIA loses, that means,In the world line where companies are emerging to beat NVIDIA in the semiconductor sectorIt is.
It is unimaginable that the global market will halve in size due to a significant decrease in demand for the semiconductor sector as a whole.

In the past, Intel thrived, but now its stock price is unrecognizable. This is mainly due to the rise of NVIDIA and AMD, while the semiconductor market has been explosively growing in the meantime. Even if NVIDIA slows down, there are competitors to surpass it, and the SOX index is expected to continue rising.
This is because the market size is fundamentally increasing.

Most likely, the potential replacement for NVIDIA would come from American companies.

Of course, a future champion may emerge from Europe, China, India, or Taiwan. However, the second and third places are likely to be held by American companies.

Therefore, I believe that the prospect of companies from Europe, China, and India largely dominating and displacing NVIDIA from its dominant position is unlikely. Hence, semiconductor investment should be fine with an SOX index-linked ETF.
Regardless of the winner, the SOX index should undoubtedly rise over a 3-year span, while fluctuating in the short term. Even in a long downward cycle where it falters for 2 years, it is likely to explode in the following 3 years.There is quite a certainty when looking at it from a 5-year perspective.I am thinking.

Of course, if you can research and narrow down individual stocks, investing in individual stocks is fine.

Semiconductors cover a wide range of processes, peripheral devices, raw materials, etc., and is a sector in which many companies exist.
Using the decline of companies like Tesla for EVs, Cisco for communication equipment, Dell for PCs as examples, there is a trend of negativity towards semiconductors, including NVIDIA, suggesting the sector is ending. However, this mixes individual cases with the overall market outlook and denies it.

As mentioned earlier, the semiconductor market has been exceeding market estimates, so unless you are an expert, it is okay to invest in the entire market.

As AI develops and even those who were previously unable to use it master AI easily in the near future, semiconductor demand will increase even more. In a world where AI usage becomes common and convenience increases further, the demand for semiconductors will soar.

Tesla: The limitations of EVs are becoming apparent, and users are returning to conventional gasoline cars or hybrids instead of electric vehicles.
Cisco: Commoditization of communication equipment and servers has made it difficult to differentiate at a level where products are easily commoditized.
Dell: Computers are becoming even more commoditized, and computer assembly companies can no longer compete with China and Asia.

All as individual companies, they simply lost to the changing times and competitors. In the semiconductor sector, Intel is a perfect example.

The overall market has not rapidly shrunk. People still use automobiles, servers, and PCs as usual, and the market size has not become extremely small. On the contrary, the market size has increased over the past 20 years.

Of course, like Cisco, many stocks are still in a slump even after 20 years since the dot-com bubble, and stocks that have been overbought will face the consequences. NVIDIA may also be overhyped. However, in a world where NVIDIA loses, the overbuying is corrected, and even more powerful rivals are emerging, continuing the story of the semiconductor world.

Even if Intel dies, the semiconductor market is expected to reach $1 trillion by 2050, a forecast that has been brought forward from 2030 by just 2 years. In just 2 years, this many experts misjudged the increase in market size speed. A new technology called AI has emerged, but it was based on semiconductors.

I believe that even in the next 10 years, if a new technology emerges, it is highly likely to require semiconductors.
The next technology after semiconductors is known as 'next-generation semiconductor.' It sounds like a joke 😂

Automobiles, network equipment, PCs, and smartphones—all require semiconductors as essential components.
The AI era has arrived here, and a key component of the AI era is also semiconductors. Next Technology is the next generation of semiconductors.

The differences between Tesla's downturn and the dot-com bubble are fundamentally different. Even if NVIDIA's stock price halves in the future, other stocks or new powerful companies emerge, and SOX will rise.

If it's Japan's semiconductor sector"FactSet Japan Semiconductor INDEX"but this will also rise.

And in these indices, stocks with deteriorating performance are promptly excluded, and new stocks are included. So if you don't know, just buy SOX or FactSet Japan Semiconductor INDEX.

And once you study and become a little more familiar with semiconductors, you just need to buy one stock at a time that you can understand.

Not understanding, not owning, and wanting to think "it's probably a bubble anyway" or "it's probably going to go down" as reasons will lead to wanting to believe in the explanations of old-fashioned experts who are saying that... and you will never win.

Short-term stock prices fluctuate and it is a volatile sector with large fluctuations, so it is important to start with a small amount of rsp."Participating in semiconductor investments"is important.

By doing so, you can positively view the market size of semiconductors. Instead of focusing on short-term stock price movements, study the future in 3, 5, 10 years ahead and bet on it. And forget what you have! lol

If you do that, I think an unbelievable world awaits in 3 years.

AI has only been talked about for a year and a half. Neither the market size nor the stock prices were predicted by any experts.
Therefore, even if beginners try to find reasons to buy or not to buy, they won't hit it. It's probably going to explode market size anyway... So, be optimistic and think maybe it's okay to buy when it drops.

So, instead of wasting time on missed opportunities, why not try to participate first?

Recommended
2644: GlobalX Japan Semiconductors ETF => FactSet Japan Semiconductor INDEX linked
2243: GlobalX Semiconductors ETF => SOX linked

By the way, I think it would be a great buying opportunity if the semiconductor sector crashes with NVIDIA's financial results in May. Not NVIDIA, but 2644 or 2243, lol
I am also planning to follow through with my words and invest 15% of my current investment funds.