Semiconductors are now an asset! Let's consider long-term investments!

Today I'd like to write about semiconductors again.

If you don't have a semiconductor brand or sector yet,“You can't buy it at such a high place.” “NVIDIA is going to be Tesla's second power.” “Semiconductors are in a bubble right now.”Don't you trust the experts who talk to you?

Each person has different ideas about what they believe in and what they invest in, but I feel that the above content is quite out of place as content sent as a sender. In other wordsContent you shouldn't believeThat's what I feel.

First, as an individual brand, NVIDIA will be Tesla's second place.. I think it's a possible story. Even if they are able to enjoy an explosion of profits with the top 1, it's possible that eventually there will be competition and profits will fall off, and the stock price will be half price... lol

However, if you think about it in the semiconductor sector, on the world line where NVIDIA loses, that isThe world line where companies that will win against NVIDIA are coming outIt is.
It is unthinkable to imagine a world where the market size would be cut in half due to a drastic drop in demand across the semiconductor sector.

The stock price of Intel, which enjoyed the times, is now unimaginable, but this is precisely because NVIDIA and AMD have risen, and the semiconductor market has exploded during that time. Even if NVIDIA were to slow down, there are opponents who can beat it, and the SOX index will rise.
This is because the market size is increasing in the first place.

And the new potential replacement for NVIDIA is probably an American company.

Of course, the next champion may come out from Europe, China, India, and Taiwan. However, all of those 2nd and 3rd places are probably shaped like the US...

Therefore, I think it is unlikely that a future where the group of companies that will drag NVIDIA down from the top 1 position will almost be occupied by European, Chinese, and Indian companies. Then a SOX index-linked ETF should be fine for semiconductor investment.
No matter who wins, SOX should definitely be rising over a 3-year span while moving up and down. Well, even if it is sluggish for 2 years due to a long-term cycle of decline, it will explode in the next 3 yearsIf you look at it over a 5-year span, there is considerable certaintyI think so.

Of course, if you can do your own research and narrow down individual stocks, you can invest in individual stocks.

Semiconductors span a wide range of processes, peripheral devices, raw materials, etc., and each is a sector with many companies.
Using the decline of Tesla = EVs, Cisco = communication devices, Dell = PCs, etc. as examples, the argument that NVIDIA will also crash and the semiconductor sector will end is an argument of semiconductor deniers, but they dare to deny this by daring to talk about individual stories and the market as a whole.

As mentioned above, the semiconductor market continues to grow beyond market expectations in the framework of the semiconductor market, so it's OK to invest in the entire market unless you are an expert.

Also, AI will develop from now on, and demand for semiconductors will increase more and more in the near future where even people who have not been able to use it until now can easily master AI. Demand for semiconductors will grow dramatically in a world where the use of AI has become commonplace and convenience is further increasing.

Tesla: The limits of EVs are visible, and users have returned to conventional gasoline cars and hybrids instead of electric cars.
Cisco: Communication devices and servers are products at a level where they can be easily commoditized, and it is no longer possible to differentiate them.
Dell: PCs are even easier to commoditize, and PC assembly companies are no longer able to beat China and Asia.

All of them, as individual companies, simply lost to changes in the times and competitors. Intel is a good example in the semiconductor sector as well.

The entire market hasn't shrunk rapidly. People are still using cars, servers, and PCs, and the market size has not become extremely small. Rather, the market size has increased over the past 20 years.

Of course, like Cisco, there are many stocks that cannot surpass the stock price of the dot com bubble and are sluggish even after 20 years, and individual stocks that have been overbought will be rewarded. Expectations for NVIDIA are also too high, and they may have been overbought. However, in the world where NVIDIA loses and overpurchases are corrected, stronger rivals have appeared, and this is an extension of the semiconductor world.

Even if Intel dies, the 2050 theory that the semiconductor market is expected to reach 1 trillion dollars is now 20 years ahead of 2030 and 20 years ahead of schedule in just 2 years. In just 2 years, experts misunderstood the speed at which the market size was increasing. A new technology called AI has appeared, and it was with semiconductors.

In the next 10 years or so, I think there is a high possibility that even if new technology comes out, it will require semiconductors.
The next technology in semiconductors is said to be “next generation semiconductors.” it's like a joke lol

Automobiles, network devices, PCs, and smartphones all need are semiconductors.
Here comes the AI era, and semiconductors are also the core components of the AI era. Next Technology is the next generation of semiconductors.

In the first place, the base is completely different from Tesla's stall or the dot com bubble. Even if the future comes where NVIDIA's stock price is half price, other stocks and new powerful companies will emerge and SOX will rise.

If it's the Japanese semiconductor sector“FactSet Japan Semiconductor INDEX”However, this will also rise.

Then, in such indices, stocks whose performance has deteriorated are promptly excluded, and new stocks are incorporated. So if you don't know, you can buy SOX or FactSet Japan Semiconductor INDEX.

Then, after studying and becoming a little more familiar with semiconductors, all you have to do is buy the brands you are satisfied with little by little, one brand at a time.

I don't know, and because I don't have one, I want to think “it's probably a bubble anyway” and “it's going to drop anyway.” So, if you believe the explanations of old experts who say that... you won't win for the rest of your life.

Impending stock prices fluctuate, and since it is a sector with high volatility (fluctuation range), even if you save a small amount at first“Participate in semiconductor investment”That's important.

If you do that, you can look positively at the semiconductor market size. Instead of immediate stock price trends, study the future 3, 5, and 10 years ahead and bet on it. And forget you have it! lol

If you do that, I think an unbelievable world awaits in 3 years.

It's still been a year and a half since AI made noise. No one expert could have predicted the market size or stock price.
Therefore, even if amateurs try their best to search for reasons to buy or not buy, it won't work. I'm optimistic that the market size will explode anyway... and I think it's okay to buy it when it drops.

So, if you have time to lose your chance, why don't you join us first?

What do you recommend
2644: Global X Japan Semiconductor ETF ⇒ FactSet Japan Semiconductor Index Linkage
2243: Global X semiconductor ETF ⇒ SOX linked

Incidentally, if the semiconductor sector crashes due to NVIDIA's financial results in May, I think it's a great place to buy. it's not NVIDIA, it's 2644 or 2243 lol
I'm also doing what I said, and I'm thinking of investing 15% of my current investment funds anew.