September 25bps or 50bps?

Reading the tea leaves of Powell Jackson Hole speech, it was not very reassuring. The so called, “Powell Pivot” - looks more like a Powell Affirmation of current market pricing. Based on current pricing in the SOFR curve, it is almost assumed a recession in 2025, and I am not convinced that we will have such severe recession in 2025. Thus, front end of yield curve might be dropping lower much or at such precipitous pace. All eyes on employment going forward, inflation is much less important.

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