39 is sinking. It continues to sink. And I feel like it won't float for the time being.

ひろ0723 OP : Right now, the market is fluctuating based solely on Trump's remarks, so if there is a bombshell statement, the situation may change. What do you think?

hiroピー : The current situation is the same as that of 2008. However, it is similar to the interest rate situation during the stagflation of the 1970s. What do you think will happen next?

ひろ0723 OP hiroピー : Oh exactly! I agree. In 2006, the economy began to flourish in a state of deregulation, high interest rates, and high inflation, so interest rate cuts began calling them preventive interest rate cuts, but the subprime issue had already arisen behind the scenes, and dealing with it took a backseat, and it was a Lehman shock. This time, too, conditions are in place due to deregulation, tariffs, and tax cuts, so there is a condition that the Fed's interest rate hike will take a backseat. Since the past 2000, the timing of interest rate hikes and interest rate cuts was slow, and all of them were recessions. But the Fed isn't stupid either, so the tempo of the September rate cut is fast this time, and I think the main focus is on taking quick action even when inflation goes too far next. Well, I feel that the Fed is not going to take the lead either. If so, I think a recession will be close if Trump, who is particular about cutting interest rates, dismisses Mr. Powell while asking the Fed to manage interest rates and forcefully starts touching interest rates, but it's a future development. Another person touched on the drastic revision of the number of unemployed people, but there was once again this year, but since there were no other indicators to confirm it, the flow did not change, and there was no major influence that dragged back. In particular, the employment relationship is a method Trump excels at most, such as various mitigations, tax cuts, employment promotion through immigration exclusion, and employment creation through US investment coercion using tariffs as a trump card, so I believe expectations for Trump, who has just taken office, will exceed temporary shocks. I'm sorry. It has derailed, but the only material that can be seen now is high inflation and interest rates, but depending on the steering by the Fed, will it be a recession, or if it can be operated well, is it within the range of a soft landing. There are only uncertainties, so I'm sorry for the absurdity.I think 1 year will be a booming economy, high inflation, high interest rates

hiroピー ひろ0723 OP : It was very helpful.
I don't think the US economy will hold if interest rates continue to be high. Also, I think the employment statistics are pretty bad. I think the current situation will be the same as that of Lehman. Problems such as unrealized losses on bank government bonds and commercial real estate issues are piling up.
The global economy is expected to be strange in 2025. I anticipate that the US economy will go crazy due to some kind of trigger.
I'll raise the cash ratio and wait and see

ひろ0723 OP hiroピー : That's right. I think I'll just do it. The most troublesome thing is deregulation. In finance, the government should be aware of the possibility of another Lehman happening, so it's a matter of whether senior officials can stop it or if the Federal Reserve can maintain its independence. Until it goes out of control, I'll buy TMV, though.If it starts to go crazy and consumption can't catch up, it will quickly drop from the sales indicators, so I will jump into TMF.Tariffs make things worse for surrounding countries, causing exports to cool down quickly, so it will probably be short-lived. I will go big on gold from the beginning of the year while hedging with TMV for six months.

hiroピー ひろ0723 OP : You really seem to know everything ^_^
It's helpful.
When expenses are cut, liquidity disappears. In addition, actual retail sales are declining. I want to Buy more TMF, but...
The official Index ETF is not bad, so stock prices rise structurally forming an Index bubble.
Interest rates are rising. I'm a bit scared so I can't Buy stocks. (I'm buying things like Palantir to earn pocket money) I'm lost on what to do these days.

ひろ0723 OP hiroピー : Last week, Trump requested the removal of the debt ceiling due to the insufficient budget in March, which led to another increase in interest rates. In essence, the hawkish personnel changes are just for show, as they are fully committed to fiscal intervention. I think we will definitely see conflicts, dismissals, and resignations one after another, just like last time. By the way, how about Palantir? That's great. In the defense and space security sector, 12 companies were selected, and two of them are Axon and Palantir.