Small-Cap Rally Sparks Options Frenzy, But Strategists Urge Caution
U.S. small-cap stocks have experienced a significant rally, with the $Russell 2000 Index (.RUT.US)$ rising 9% over the past 10 sessions, while the tech-heavy $NASDAQ 100 Index (.NDX.US)$ fell 3%. This shift, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and Donald Trump's improved prospects, has led to record trading in bullish options. Specifically, an average of 1.35 million call options on the $iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM.US)$ were traded daily over the last 10 days. However, some strategists caution that further gains may be limited.
However, the recent rally in small-cap stocks has faltered as tech stocks rebounded on Monday, leading some analysts to believe that small stocks may struggle to sustain their gains. Historically, similar market rotations have been short-lived, with tech stocks quickly regaining the advantage, as noted by Joe Mazzola of Charles Schwab.
For instance, the Russell 2000 saw a 22% increase from November to December 2023 on rate cut expectations but struggled afterward when the cuts didn't happen. Barclays strategists indicate that the fundamental macroeconomic environment does not support a prolonged rally, and the current earnings season could be a critical test. Some investors remain optimistic about small caps, viewing them as potential beneficiaries of lower interest rates and Trump's policies, such as tariffs and lower taxes, which are seen as favorable to smaller companies.
Source: Trade Alert, REUTERS
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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