Which of the three scenarios for SMCI's prediction do you approve of?

$Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ The earnings call live broadcast is coming soon! Based on the recent performance of SMCI, I have made predictions for 3 scenarios:

Best case scenario forecast.

Probability:30%

In the best case scenario, SMCI can successfully turn the situation around through the following actions:

1. Quickly find and cooperate with a new audit institution, and rebuild market confidence by improving financial transparency.

2. Strengthen governance structure to ensure the independence and compliance of management and the board of directors, and improve internal controls.

3. Maintain technological innovation in AI servers and liquid cooling technology, seize current market demand, and continue to expand market share.

As these measures depend on the company's internal efforts, cooperation from external audit institutions, and the stability of market demand, the probability of this happening is around 30%. This probability takes into account the significant impact of the current negative news on the company, but its technological advantages in the field of AI and high-performance servers may still provide the company with a turnaround opportunity.

Worst case scenario forecast

Probability:50%

In the worst-case scenario, SMCI faces the following risks:

1. Failure to effectively rectify financial and governance issues, leading to further escalation of audit issues, which may trigger in-depth investigations by regulatory agencies and more severe financial reviews.

2. Loss of confidence from customers and investors, which may lead to customers switching to competitors, resulting in a decline in company revenue and market share.

3. Continuous low stock price or further decline, resulting in financing difficulties, impacting future business expansion and technological research and development.

Given that the auditor's resignation has already led to a substantial drop in the company's stock price and a severe blow to market confidence, the probability of this situation is estimated to be around 50%. Due to the persistence of negative news and the uncertainty of the company's financial disclosure, the probability of the worst-case scenario is high.

Neutral Scenario Prediction

Probability: 20%

The neutral scenario is that the company is able to solve financial problems to a certain extent, but does not fully restore market confidence. The stock price may rebound to some extent, but will not recover to its original level. In this scenario, the company may maintain a stable market share, but it is difficult to achieve significant growth.

Which one do you all think is more recognized?

My view on the future trend of SMCI:

The stock price plummeting by 14% did indeed shock many people and wiped out its year-to-date gains overnight. In analyzing the decline of Super Micro's stock price, investors' psychological factors are also an aspect that cannot be ignored. Market sentiment is often driven by news events, and this sentiment can sometimes lead to an overreaction in stock prices. This is exactly what happened with Super Micro.

From a technical perspective，Super Micro的股价在此次事件发生之前，已经形成了一定的上升趋势。在股价急剧下跌后，市场的关注点将转向其技术面支持位的测试。许多技术分析师会密切关注超微计算机的支撑位和阻力位，以评估未来股价的走势。根据技术图表，Super Micro的股价在下跌过程中可能会测试到30美元的支撑位。如果该支撑位被突破，则可能导致更大范围的抛售，进一步加深投资者的恐慌情绪。

然而，这一事件也为Super Micro的长期投资者提供了潜在的机会。许多分析师指出，超微计算机的基本面依然稳健，其业务在云计算和人工智能领域的需求未来仍将持续增长。从最新的财报中可以看出，超微计算机在2024财年的第二季度中，总营收达到了2.5 billion美元，同比增长达30%。这些数据表明，尽管近期出现的会计问题使得短期内市场情绪不佳，但公司的长期前景依然值得期待。

在面对未来，Super Micro需要做的首要任务是恢复市场对其财务透明度的信任The company should promptly disclose the specific reasons for the resignation of the accountant to the public, and actively cooperate with the work of the new accounting firm to ensure the accuracy and timeliness of the subsequent financial statements. In addition, enhancing communication with investors is crucial for dispelling market doubts. According to a survey, the higher the transparency of a company, the stronger the confidence of investors, which will help stabilize the company's stock price.

In summary, the sharp drop in Super Micro Computer's stock price due to the resignation of the accounting firm reflects market concerns about the company's financial transparency and the overall market environment. Although there may be more challenges in the short term, Super Micro Computer still has a strong business foundation in the long run, and if the current crisis is handled properly, it is still possible for Super Micro Computer to return to a growth trajectory in the future.

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没有咖啡的吃茶店 OP : It seems that we all are interested in $Super Micro Computer (SMCI.US)$ Too optimistic.

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