$Soybean Oil Futures(JAN5) (ZLmain.US)$ Let's continue to ta...
$Soybean Oil Futures(JAN5) (ZLmain.US)$ Let's continue to talk about soybeans today. Why is it strongly bullish now that soybean and soybean oil is at the historical bottom? A big reason is that soybeans have fallen deeply below the planting cost.
20 years ago, the general planting cost of US soybeans was around $500/acre, and the cost was about 900/bushel. So why US soybean futures have been fluctuating and bottoming out from 2017 to 2020 is because it is near the cost price. The agricultural product market needs to wait for catalytic factors.
The planting cost of soybeans is adjusted by inflation. In recent years, there has been high inflation, so the cost has been rising after 20 years. The current cost is at least $600/acre, a sharp increase of 20%. So the cost has risen to about 1100-1200/bushel. Brazilian beans are slightly lower than US beans, and it is estimated to be around 1100 .
What does the current market price of 1000 mean? It's just like the planting cost of 900 before, and the price fell to 800. The soybean growers have lost a lot of money. Due to the support of inflation costs, the previous price can no longer be returned.
Don’t argue that there are good harvests now so it will fall further. Planting soybean now basically suffer deep loss . If weather turns harsh, the price may suddenly explode, especially if we are anticipating next year’s bulk inflation.
Don’t underestimate the explosive power of agricultural products. The cycle of beans is only 4 years. Now it has gone through a big bull-bear cycle from 2020 to 2024 . It is just waiting to explode in the future and industrial products will be ashamed of the crazy trend of beans.
20 years ago, the general planting cost of US soybeans was around $500/acre, and the cost was about 900/bushel. So why US soybean futures have been fluctuating and bottoming out from 2017 to 2020 is because it is near the cost price. The agricultural product market needs to wait for catalytic factors.
The planting cost of soybeans is adjusted by inflation. In recent years, there has been high inflation, so the cost has been rising after 20 years. The current cost is at least $600/acre, a sharp increase of 20%. So the cost has risen to about 1100-1200/bushel. Brazilian beans are slightly lower than US beans, and it is estimated to be around 1100 .
What does the current market price of 1000 mean? It's just like the planting cost of 900 before, and the price fell to 800. The soybean growers have lost a lot of money. Due to the support of inflation costs, the previous price can no longer be returned.
Don’t argue that there are good harvests now so it will fall further. Planting soybean now basically suffer deep loss . If weather turns harsh, the price may suddenly explode, especially if we are anticipating next year’s bulk inflation.
Don’t underestimate the explosive power of agricultural products. The cycle of beans is only 4 years. Now it has gone through a big bull-bear cycle from 2020 to 2024 . It is just waiting to explode in the future and industrial products will be ashamed of the crazy trend of beans.
An exploding bean price will also support and push palm oil higher.
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