SP500/TSLA/NVDA/AVGO/TSM Price Prediction for 2nd Week of July

So what's the story?What moved the market last week, and what should we focus on this week?

On the macros, last Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that nonfarm payrolls grew by 206,000 in June, surpassing the expected 190,000. However, this was a sharp decline from the previous 272,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, indicating the labor market is cooling off.

In my view, this will likely fuel a heated debate at the Federal Reserve's July meeting about whether to cut rates in September. If the June CPI data released on July 11th is moderate, some of the hawkish members of the Fed, concerned about the softening labor market, might change their stance and support a rate cut in September.

Technically speaking, based on last week’s video analysis, the S&P 500 is still movin' up within an ascending channel. After a short period of sideways movement, it’s continued its upward trend with not much risk overall. But right now, we need to watch the resistance at the top of the channel. If this week shows a clear weakening in upward momentum, like if it can't break through the channel top and the candlestick bodies get smaller, or even start showing red, we should be cautious about a short-term pullback.

Tesla's stock price has climbed 38% over the past eight days, wiping out all its losses from earlier this year.

On the fundamentals side, there’s been a lot of good news: First, Tesla’s Q2 vehicle delivery numbers released on Tuesday were way better than Q1, and much better than the most pessimistic forecasts.

Also, on July 5th, several state-owned companies in the Lingang New Area of Shanghai announced they had purchased Model Y cars for corporate use.

Looking ahead, Tesla will announce its Q2 earnings after the market closes on July 23rd. The gross profit margin of its vehicles might be a big focus then. Besides the upcoming earnings report, Tesla’s major event, “Robotaxi Day,” early next month could also drive the stock higher.

On Tesla’s chart, if you’re thinking about buying now, should you wait for a pullback? I think so. The stock has broken through the previous accumulation zone, forming a head-and-shoulders bottom pattern, and is now in an uptrend. But the recent upward candlesticks are getting shorter, suggesting weakening short-term momentum, possibly leading to a pullback. So, those looking to get in might consider waiting for the short-term pullback to end before buying.

On the other hand, Nvidia, the hot global chip giant, has recently faced a sharp sell-off.

On July 5th, Nvidia's stock dipped 2% at the close.

According to the latest SEC filings, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and other executives have been selling shares.

At the same time, Nvidia is facing a regulatory storm in the European market.

Technically, the stock is still in an overall uptrend, but the short-term pullback isn’t over yet. Comparing it to previous corrections initiated by two big bearish candlesticks, it looks like this pullback might not be over soon. So, those thinking about buying Nvidia for a short-term trade might want to wait until the pullback finishes.

In the AI chip space, Nvidia is the clear winner, but Broadcom, AMD, Intel, and Qualcomm are all vying for market share.

Comparing Nvidia and Broadcom, I think Broadcom has a chance to take the lead and become the next hot chip stock.

But on the technical chart, we need to be cautious: Broadcom’s stock is still in an uptrend, but the previous gap hasn’t been filled, and there’s heavy resistance at the prior high, indicating significant pressure. So, if you’re not in yet, it might be wise to wait for a better entry point.

Finally, another stock to watch this week is TSMC, which will report earnings on July 18th. According to supply chain checks, most of TSMC's clients have agreed to higher foundry prices for reliable product supply, which will boost TSMC's gross margins. So this earnings report might exceed expectations.

TSMC's stock is also in an overall uptrend, but the price is now at the resistance level of the previous high, which is alsoe a heavy accumulation aone. If break through happens, then there's room for further short-term upside; if not, it might enter a larger pullnack phase, similar to the previous one.