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Tesla Q2 deliveries dropped Y/Y while stock flies
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Mr Long Term joined discussion · Jul 2 08:27
Speed Bump?
Tesla $Tesla(TSLA.US)$ Motors 's Chinese rivals accelerated in June to cap off a strong second quarter for EV sales, while the U.S. EV giant braces for a Q2 delivery decline.

Startup EV stock NIO Inc $NIO Inc(NIO.US)$ . surpassed its Q2 sales guidance and scored the biggest quarter-over-quarter sales increase. Nio also reported record June and Q2 sales on Monday.

XPeng Inc $XPeng(XPEV.US)$ . and Li Auto $Li Auto(LI.US)$ also reported higher sales in June and Q2, while recent IPO ZEEKR set records for both.

Chinese EV and battery giant BYD COMPANY $BYD Company ADR(BYDDY.US)$ posted record June and Q2 sales as well. Tesla will likely release global deliveries on Tuesday.

A smoother road awaits China's electric vehicle makers given higher government subsidies and improving consumer demand, analysts said. But challenges remain.

"The strong sales numbers add to evidence that the EV market in China is still growing despite worries about slowing momentum," one expert told the South China Morning Post. However, EV discounts and incentives are seen weighing on profitability.

BYD led a price war in the first quarter of 2024, hurting its rivals. Some of the startups plan to launch cheaper new electric vehicles in the months ahead, growing their challenge to both BYD and Tesla.

Tesla Archrival BYD Sales
BYD sold 341,658 in June, up 35% vs. a year earlier and 3% above May's 331,817. That just topped December's record 341,043.

For the quarter, BYD sold 986,720, also a record and up 57% vs. Q1's 626,263.

The robust Q2 tally reflects deep discounts. Since February, Warren Buffett-backed BYD has lowered prices of nearly all its cars by 5% to 20%.

BYD sells fully battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrids (PHEVs). In 2023, BYD sold slightly more BEVs than PHEVs. This year, PHEVs have taken the lead, reflecting a global shift toward hybrids.

In late May, BYD rolled out a more advanced hybrid system with a greatly extended range. Demand for BYD's first two PHEVs with the new system reportedly has been very strong.

In June, passenger PHEV sales hit a record for a fourth straight month, at 195,032. That was up 57.9% vs. a year earlier and 5.9% vs. May.

Passenger BEV sales came in 145,179, up more than 13% vs. a year earlier but down 0.8% vs. May.

For the quarter, BYD sold 426,039, up vs. Q1's 300,114 but below Q4's 526,409. That might be enough to reclaim the BEV crown from Tesla.

Meanwhile, overseas sales represent a growing share of BYD's EV sales.

BYD stock is up modestly in 2024, a rare EV stock in positive territory.

The stock gained 0.9% in Monday's stock market action, after regaining the 21-day line on Friday. Shares of Tesla's No. 1 rival recovered the 50-day and 200-day moving averages in late May.

Tesla stock jumped nearly 6% on Monday. On Tuesday, Tesla is expected to post its second straight quarter of declining EV deliveries, due to the China EV war and an aging lineup of electric vehicles.

EV Stock Li Auto Sales
EV startup Li Auto delivered 47,774 vehicles in June, up 46.7% vs. a year earlier and up 36.4% vs. May's 35,020. second only to December's 50,353. That brought Q2 deliveries to 108,581, up 25.5% vs. a year earlier and just over 35% higher than Q1's 80,400.

Li Auto had guided Q2 deliveries of 105,000 to 110,000 electric vehicles.

Analysts at Deutsche Bank expected Li Auto to deliver 46,000 EVs in June.

Sales of the cheaper, smaller L6 SUV were key, surpassing 20,000 units in June for a third straight month. Li Auto's L-series models are extended-range electric vehicles (EREVs), essentially a form of plug-in hybrid. The Mega minivan, Li Auto's first all-electric model, ha seen sluggish sales.

Li Auto stock popped 6.7% on Monday, still well below the 50-day and 200-day lines. Shares rose 1 cent to 17.88 last week, wiping out solid gains earlier in the week. The once-hot EV stock has lost nearly half its value so far this year, at its worst level since late 2022.

Nio EV Sales
Nio delivered a record 21,209 EVs in June, up 98% vs. a year earlier and up 3.2% vs. May's record of 20,544. For the second quarter, Nio delivered a record 57,373 vehicles, a rare beat and nearly doubling Q1's 30,053.

The one-time "Tesla of China" had guided Q2 deliveries of 54,000 to 56,000 electric vehicles. Deutsche Bank expected Nio to deliver 18,200 EVs in June.

Analysts said improvements to Nio's battery rental service helped to juice its Q2 EV sales. Nio also benefited from the overall rebound in China's EV industry, reports said.

Sales of the Onvo L60 could begin in September. In May Nio launched the Onvo L60 EV, which is poised to undercut the Tesla Model Y in price by 12%. Nio calls the Onvo its new, mainstream sub-brand. Until now, the startup has focused on the higher end of the EV market.

Nio stock jumped 6.5% on Monday, also below the 50- and 200-day lines.

Shares sank 3.3% to 4.16 last week. Like Li Auto, Nio stock has more than halved so far this year.

New IPO Zeekr Sales
Zeekr $ZEEKR(ZK.US)$ delivered a record 20,106 in June, up 89.3% vs. a year earlier and up 8% from May's 18,616.

For the quarter, Zeekr delivered 54,811 EVs, a new all-time high. That was double a year earlier and 65.8% above Q1's 33,059.

The new issue had not given Q2 delivery guidance.

Deutsche Bank expected it to deliver 20,000 EVs in June.

Zeekr listed shares in the U.S. market in May. It's been an EV player in China since early 2021. China giant Geely founded the EV startup to fend off Tesla, Nio and others.

Its growing sales will be closely watched by Tesla stock investors. The Zeekr 001 model, a Model 3 rival, marked a milestone 200,000th delivery in June. Zeekr also has a vanlike model, called the Mix, in the works.

Zeekr shares fell 3.2% on Monday. ZK stock tumbled 11% to 18.84 last week, below the $21 IPO price.

Laggard EV Stock XPeng Sales
Embattled startup XPeng delivered 10,668 vehicles in June, up 23.8% vs. a year earlier and 5.1% vs. May's 10,146.

XPeng delivered 30,207 vehicles in Q2, up 30.2% vs. Q2 and up 38.4% vs. Q1's 21,821. It had guided for Q2 deliveries of 29,000 to 32,000 electric vehicles.

Deutsche Bank expected XPeng to deliver 10,000 EVs in June.

The Nio and Li Auto rival has especially struggled to keep pace amid China's EV price wars. It's counting on a more affordable sub-brand, called Mona, to reverse those woes.

On June 11, XPeng unveiled the M03 sedan, the first model from the new affordable Mona brand. The electric sedan, seen as a much-cheaper rival to the Model 3, is expected to debut on July 3.

XPeng stock leapt up 6.2% on Monday, also below the 50- and 200-day lines. Shares sank 5.2% last week to 7.33. The laggard China EV stock has nearly halved so far in 2024.
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