Start gradually opening positions
Over the weekend, I read a lot of information about the Chinese economy. My conclusion is that there is no conclusion. Everything is policy-driven, and I have no internal information; God knows what will happen. However, if China continues to decouple from the West and hurt each other, both China and the US will be harmed and unfavorable.
with $Apple (AAPL.US)$ with $Tesla (TSLA.US)$ For example, although China is not the most important market, and the industrial chain is also shifting to other places, in the event that one day, using an Apple phone or Tesla car would “endanger national security” and “hurt the feelings of the Chinese nation,” I cannot predict what will happen domestically, but the impact on US stocks will also be huge. As long as China and the US do not ease, the US should increase sanctions against Huawei and SMIC, so I wouldn't be surprised if China sanctions Apple and Tesla.
Leaving China aside, and speaking directly about Apple phones, I think it has reached a bottleneck. Apple phones are actually not smartphones at all; at best, they can only be considered first-generation intelligence, because they have no intelligence at all. For example, if I buy something, I need to call customer service, but I don't have time. I want to tell my phone about the problem and my expectations. The phone will automatically call me, provide feedback to customer service, and then automatically select the plan closest to my expectations from the customer service responses? Another example is, if I want to make an appointment with a dentist, can my phone automatically help me contact the dentist to schedule a schedule based on my calendar? My email gets hundreds of emails every day, mostly spam ads. Can my phone filter it so I can get all the useful information in these hundreds of emails within three minutes? That's why it's called a smartphone.
I'm looking forward to Apple being the first to achieve this intelligence, just as I expect Tesla to be fully autonomous. But if others did it first, the Apple era would be over. As for Tesla, as long as it can drive autonomously, a new era will begin. So it makes sense that many people think that Tesla's market value will surpass Apple's.
Today, due to a rating increase, Tesla is driving significantly higher. Let's take a look at how to leave. I cut my Tesla position around 255 on Friday, leaving only a bottom position, which is considered empty. But I'm not entangled in this kind of wave. What I'm looking forward to is a big wave of 50% or more, then cut back and forth, profit half from it, and eat an increase of 25% or more. China's policy is not consistent. I'm still a bit nervous in the short term. I just dare to play around with it; I don't dare to reinvest. After all, no one can predict something like a red header file.
Back to business, asml, I'm planning to start increasing my positions. In the chip sector, apart from NVDA, I'm only planning to do ASML. $Qualcomm (QCOM.US)$ This kind of thing explores new lows at every turn, and I've decided not to touch it. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ I'm timid, and I'm still worried about war. Compared to that, ASML, which is more upstream, is safer. As for the production capacity bottleneck of EUV lithography machines, I firmly believe that it is more difficult to go from 1 to 10 than from 0 to 1. ASML will definitely increase production in the future and continue to monopolize the market.
Looking back at the stock price trend, I initially planned to buy when it was around 550, and I drew all the trend lines at the time. After such an obvious breakthrough in dosage, I went back and forth. As to why I didn't buy it... I have only one word to say about myself: stupid.
Now that it's close to the 550 position again, I plan to buy the lower it is. The total position is expected to be 10%. Following the strategy of fighting left and right, I will exercise the spirit of ah q. Assuming that I have shorted 10% of my position at a high level, I am now starting to gradually make up for it.
Other than that, I also bought $UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$ as well $McDonald's (MCD.US)$ , the same strategy.
I'm now more conservative and cautious, especially with tech stocks. My previous judgment has not changed: as long as crude oil prices and interest rates on long-term US debt do not continue to decline, the valuation of technology stocks will be squeezed. Currently, oil prices have stabilized at 90, and interest rates on long-term bonds are also high. I'm not optimistic about the short-term trend of technology stocks. Keep a close eye on whether QQQ will break out of the structure above the head and shoulders. As long as it does not effectively break through 380, the risk is not eliminated. But I don't see a deep drop either, because the rate hike is really nearing its end. $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$
Disclaimer: Community is offered by Moomoo Technologies Inc. and is for educational purposes only.
Read more
Comment
Sign in to post a comment
本人散户，闲钱投资，名字为系统生成。这里记录投资感悟与趣事。所有言论都纯属娱乐，不是投资建议。此账号为本人唯一社媒平台。
1374Followers
26Following
9206Visitors
Follow
sentosa island : fuelling
Ringo想买包 : I can't make money, it's more important to hurt my feelings
高贵的阿德莱德 OP : I opened an ASML position last week at a cost of about 630, an observational 1% position. The next position increase is expected to be around 590-600.
葱白末 Ringo想买包 : What call did you buy?
嗨 皮 : Similar trends may not necessarily be the same market demand
嗨 皮 Ringo想买包 : Money is something external to us. Investing means money makes money. Taking it too seriously affects mentality; on the contrary, it's not good
Moneys working : The explanation about Apple and Tesla was excellent