Steady Long-Term Inflation: Markets Can Rest Easy Without Fear of a Comeback? [Learn Premium Weekly Review]
![Steady Long-Term Inflation: Markets Can Rest Easy Without Fear of a Comeback? [Learn Premium Weekly Review]](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/71220648/editor_image/00d4f2af8cea3385a2e45082ba780c20.png/bigmoo?imageMogr2/ignore-error/1/format/webp)
Market Overview: Steady Long-Term Inflation. Have Market Rate-Cut Expectations Been Revised?
The last trading day of February, the core PCE index for January, a key long-term inflation indicator that the Fed pays more attention to, has been released. This is also the last PCE inflation report before the Fed’s March monetary policy meeting.
Specifically, the core PCE price index in January showed a YoY increase of 2.8%, in line with expectations and slightly lower than the previous figure of 2.9%; it rose by 0.4% MoM, higher than the previous 0.2%, but also met market forecasts. Unlike the higher-than-expected CPI and PPI numbers released two weeks ago, this PCE data, although still above the Fed's 2% inflation target, did not indicate unexpected inflationary pressure.
This validated the Fed's wait-and-see approach and calmed investors’ worries about the Fed keeping rates high for longer or even hiking again, preserving the possibility of a rate cut in June.
After data-driven pressure and Fed officials' cool stance on rate cuts throughout February, market expectations have now aligned with the Fed's December projection for 2024, dropping from six to three rate cuts.
Specifically, the core PCE price index in January showed a YoY increase of 2.8%, in line with expectations and slightly lower than the previous figure of 2.9%; it rose by 0.4% MoM, higher than the previous 0.2%, but also met market forecasts. Unlike the higher-than-expected CPI and PPI numbers released two weeks ago, this PCE data, although still above the Fed's 2% inflation target, did not indicate unexpected inflationary pressure.
This validated the Fed's wait-and-see approach and calmed investors’ worries about the Fed keeping rates high for longer or even hiking again, preserving the possibility of a rate cut in June.
After data-driven pressure and Fed officials' cool stance on rate cuts throughout February, market expectations have now aligned with the Fed's December projection for 2024, dropping from six to three rate cuts.
![Steady Long-Term Inflation: Markets Can Rest Easy Without Fear of a Comeback? [Learn Premium Weekly Review]](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/71220648/20240301/1709289605355-b9755f17ac.png/big?area=999&is_public=true)
The month of March also has many events that can influence the stock market that we can focus on. With events like elections“Super Tuesday”, the Fed's rate decision, and Nvidia’s GTC conference.
![Steady Long-Term Inflation: Markets Can Rest Easy Without Fear of a Comeback? [Learn Premium Weekly Review]](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/71220648/20240301/1709289682019-98b2b2ed9e.png/big?area=999&is_public=true)
Market Hotspots:
Apple winds down Electric Car, and doubles down on AI Generation
On February 27, the media reported that Apple was abandoning the electric vehicle business and turning to generative artificial intelligence (AI).
Apple's Titan project began in 2014, intending to launch a self-driving electric car. However, this multibillion-dollar project was troubled from the start, experiencing multiple strategic and leadership changes along the way. Ultimately, it became the largest "Axed Project" in the history of technology.
However, this move was well-received by Wall Street analysts. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ rose 1.5% during that day. Commentary said: Focusing on software development rather than directly manufacturing cars is Apple's better strategy for entering the automotive industry. At the same time, it is wise for Apple to abandon car manufacturing and focus on high-growth areas such as generative AI, because generative AI can enhance Apple's competitive advantage compared to automotive projects.
Bitcoin continued its rally, breaking the $60,000 mark in trading for the first time in over two years!
Since the beginning of this week, the value of Bitcoin has been rising continuously. On Wednesday, Bitcoin against the US dollar (BTCUSD) broke through 60,000. In the first four trading days, it has increased by 18%.
After the Bitcoin spot ETF was officially listed and started trading in the US over a month ago, multiple institutions intended to publish new cryptocurrency ETFs. Additionally, the upcoming Bitcoin Halving in April, which will slow down supply growth, coupled with the fear of missing out (FOMO) mentality, has fueled the current surge of Bitcoin.
On February 27, the media reported that Apple was abandoning the electric vehicle business and turning to generative artificial intelligence (AI).
Apple's Titan project began in 2014, intending to launch a self-driving electric car. However, this multibillion-dollar project was troubled from the start, experiencing multiple strategic and leadership changes along the way. Ultimately, it became the largest "Axed Project" in the history of technology.
However, this move was well-received by Wall Street analysts. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ rose 1.5% during that day. Commentary said: Focusing on software development rather than directly manufacturing cars is Apple's better strategy for entering the automotive industry. At the same time, it is wise for Apple to abandon car manufacturing and focus on high-growth areas such as generative AI, because generative AI can enhance Apple's competitive advantage compared to automotive projects.
Bitcoin continued its rally, breaking the $60,000 mark in trading for the first time in over two years!
Since the beginning of this week, the value of Bitcoin has been rising continuously. On Wednesday, Bitcoin against the US dollar (BTCUSD) broke through 60,000. In the first four trading days, it has increased by 18%.
After the Bitcoin spot ETF was officially listed and started trading in the US over a month ago, multiple institutions intended to publish new cryptocurrency ETFs. Additionally, the upcoming Bitcoin Halving in April, which will slow down supply growth, coupled with the fear of missing out (FOMO) mentality, has fueled the current surge of Bitcoin.
![Steady Long-Term Inflation: Markets Can Rest Easy Without Fear of a Comeback? [Learn Premium Weekly Review]](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/71220648/20240301/1709290338285-a2532145af.png/big?area=999&is_public=true)
In contrast, Bitcoin-related stocks bucked the market trend with gains. $Coinbase (COIN.US)$, the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange closed up more than 22%, and $MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$, one of the public companies holding the most Bitcoin, soared 43%.
![Steady Long-Term Inflation: Markets Can Rest Easy Without Fear of a Comeback? [Learn Premium Weekly Review]](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/71220648/20240301/1709290411931-bb61c5744b.png/big?area=999&is_public=true)
Below are the approved spot bitcoin ETFs that can be traded in the US stock market. We can pay attention to them.
![Steady Long-Term Inflation: Markets Can Rest Easy Without Fear of a Comeback? [Learn Premium Weekly Review]](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/71220648/20240301/1709290511828-2af3d04274.png/big?area=999&is_public=true)
Week's Premium Learning materials
Trading Lessons: [Swing trading] is a trading strategy aimed at capturing short-term price fluctuations. It mainly uses technical analysis to find trading opportunities and can be supplemented by fundamental analysis. The key questions of swing trading involve judging trading direction, entry timing, and take-profit/stop-loss points. Common swing trading strategies include trading based on price patterns, channel trading, breakout trading, and the use of technical indicators.
![Steady Long-Term Inflation: Markets Can Rest Easy Without Fear of a Comeback? [Learn Premium Weekly Review]](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/71220648/20240301/1709279843308-a799f07164.png/big?area=999&is_public=true)
Opportunity Mining: The [Nikkei 225 index] $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$ reached a 34-year high, attracting the attention of global investors. As the Japanese market barometer, it tracks 225 highly liquid stocks on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, price-weighted and reviewed semi-annually. The constituents are mainly concentrated in the technology and consumer sectors, like $Fast Retailing (9983.JP)$ and $Tokyo Electron (8035.JP)$. Investors can access the index indirectly through ETFs, actively managed funds, or index futures. Risks that require attention include market, currency, geopolitical, and sector-specific risks.
![Steady Long-Term Inflation: Markets Can Rest Easy Without Fear of a Comeback? [Learn Premium Weekly Review]](https://ussnsimg.moomoo.com/sns_client_feed/71220648/20240301/1709279964717-ff84d9c27a.png/big?area=999&is_public=true)
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