Stick it out…..
Though Nvdia may seem high here, under newer and more translucent put/call ratios, a number of whales and hedge funds have just been placing huge call postions with a March 155 strike. And for them to break even on that trade, the mArket needs to see the stock moving in the neighborhood of 160.
And things are really starting to move again. Every time, with few exceptions, everytime I jump out of Nvidia with a profit, it unexpectedly starts ripping above my exit level,….. and waiting for it come back down to my entry price, has rarely worked out timewise and Though I get bak in, its almost invariably at a higher price,…. thereby losing leverage and allowing my basis to get punished, whereas if id just stayed in, Id be up rather notably more than I am now….. and Ive made excellent money in Nvida.
And the story has only continued to improve with the fix of Blackwell and the fact that its still sold out tohrough 2025. And Blackwell costs quite a bit more than its now than its former top seller.
The volatility is fear based. Nothing has changed to slow them down, and all the people whove been waiting for for Blackwell deliveries are now starting totake delivery of them. And the list of “ buyers” is only broadening out. So Im gonna sit my ass down, keep my fingers off the keyboard, and sit through any volatility,…..as with the put/call ratio beginning to show an ever larger skew toward higher levels and going even further out even into March 2025 with a 155 strike, and the lack of any notable movemet in the.smaller caps,….even after the 50 bp cut the lack of the smaller caps, which has stalled,….. historically, traders have repeatedly begun to rush back into the Mag 7…….
.But the only Megacaps that are consistently hitting higher highs now are Nvidia and META. And Meta appears to want to take a breather at the moment, while Nvidia is beginning a rip again, especially with the market’s disappoint in AMD’s new offering today, Nvidia continues to be rather unchallenged in the rate of its continued technological advancement.
So for me, unless something catastrophic happens within the economy, Im gonna hunker down and be patient until at least beyond the beginning of 2025.
The fundamentals and technicals are largely telling the same story, and the FOMO is “ beginning” to start up again.
And as recently exemplified, when people continue to slog it out with alot of their anemic performing stocks, while watching Nvidia starting to move again, theyll likely get tired of it, and like before,…..theyll begin piling back into Nvida….yet again.
So it appears that Nvidia is likely to hold its own through at least the end of Q1,….perhaps moving to sowhere between 157.60 and 162, and reassessing where to from there,….. which is likely higher.
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The wolf of Toronto : It's excellent and I'm all in. My portfolio is 100% NVidia for 2 years now. But let me ask you...after 140, Isn't the company will be worth +4T may sound crazy? What if new Federal restrictions show up? What about geopolitical tensions in Thaiwan?