Stock Market Acts Like a Winner Has Been Declared in the Harris-Trump Debate
The first presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has concluded, and the markets seem to have declared a winner.
Following the debate, shares of $Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$, the owner of Truth Social, plummeted by 13% on Wednesday afternoon. Other assets linked to Trump, including Bitcoin and crypto stocks, also saw declines. Conversely, solar stocks, which are anticipated to benefit from a Harris presidency, experienced a rally, while healthcare shares dropped.
During the intense debate, Trump and Harris sparred on a range of topics, such as the economy and immigration. Although the debate left many investors seeking clearer insights into potentially market-influencing policies such as tariffs, taxes, and regulations, online prediction markets have since adjusted, now favoring a Harris victory in the upcoming November elections. PredictIt's 2024 presidential general election market now prices Harris at 51.3 cents, up from 49.9 cents pre-debate, while Trump’s odds fell to 47.4 cents from 48.5 cents, according to Real Clear Politics as of Sept. 12.
Investors sold assets tied to the "Trump Trade"
The impact of the debate was felt across various sectors. Trump Media & Technology Group's stock dropped to a new post-IPO low, reflecting the former president's reduced chances in the 2024 election. Cryptocurrency, often buoyed by Trump's pro-crypto stance, also suffered losses, with Bitcoin dropping about 3% since the debate began and then going flat. Shares of some cryptocurrency-focused companies, including crypto miner $Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$ and $Bitfarms (BITF.US)$, also fell.
"Bitcoin trading on the back foot since the debate signals lower perceived probability of Trump winning, as he is seen as the candidate with a more favourable stance on cryptocurrencies," ING Economics said in a note on Wednesday.
"The US Presidential debate achieved its goal by providing a decisive edge to one of the candidates in what has been an exceptionally close race," said Charu Chanana, Head of FX Strategy and Global Market Strategist at Saxo. "Crypto and energy stocks might face headwinds as market sentiment adjusts to the shifting political dynamics."
Meanwhile, stocks linked to tougher immigration policies, such as those of correctional facility operators GEO Group and CoreCivic, declined. Traditional energy stocks like Occidental Petroleum and Exxon Mobil, which would likely gain from Trump’s promise to reduce restrictions on domestic oil production, also experienced a downturn. Companies, including Occidental Petroleum, Chevron, Halliburton, and other oil and gas stocks, witnessed a dip.
Renewable-energy stocks surged, reflecting investors' confidence in Harris
On the flip side, renewable energy stocks surged as investors gained confidence in Harris’s prospects post-debate. U.S.-listed solar companies saw significant gains, with the $Invesco Solar ETF (TAN.US)$ jumping 5%. Solar stocks, including $First Solar (FSLR.US)$, $Sunrun (RUN.US)$, $Enphase Energy (ENPH.US)$, and others, all experienced a rise following the debate, given Democrats' support for renewable energy.
Health insurer stocks including $Humana (HUM.US)$, and $CVS Health (CVS.US)$, were also down on Wednesday. Some analysts believe Harris' push to lower drug prices may weigh on the sector.
As the markets digest the outcomes of the debate, ING Economics highlighted, "Betting odds now show Trump's chances of winning the election are back below 50%. Both campaigns have signaled openness to another debate, suggesting that markets may wait for new opinion polls in the coming days before taking more decisive positions on the election."
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg, Real Clear Politics
Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only.
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binjh : Propaganda. No one in their right mind would vote for Kamala
73365753 : Kamala is an empty shell. This is crap
KenqEow : Harris has the upper hand to be the 1st female president. Market has made the choice.
DavidCCL : My personal view: Kamala can't even talk properly if not in script. She keeps giggling without giving proper answer to most questions asked. Lacking of leadership quality.
Ockhams Razor : Harris is a great actor
Jerry Neel : Anyone could do go with an earpiece telling her what to say.
70929407 : This is TOTAL BS! There is NO WAY IN HELL THAT YOU CAN CONVINCE ME THAT kamala Harris is going to win an election based on 1 debate when she didn’t answer a Single policy question! NOT ONE! She was Assisted by the moderators in every possible way. This is all BS!
Mynor Garcia : The odds aren't a reflection of voter sentiment, clearly.
Survival Odds is the only thing they could possibly indicate. Lol, how else you come up with 50/50?
Kennyb8589 : I'm a fan of the Trump Administration. What they bring to the table, in the way of strengthening the economy and bringing jobs back home, is very sound. But, make no mistakes about it; approximately 42% of the country are die hard democrats and 42% are die hard Republicans. It's the 16% of the "INDEPENDENTS VOTERS"(which I am) that truly decides who is President.
Of that 16%, 7% are informed voters. The other 9% are influenced by superficial influencers like sex, color, and friendships.
Make " NO DOUBTS," the current Democratic party is bad for our country. They are more interested in foreign policies, sending our jobs to foreign countries, and forcing renewable energy down our throats.
They have demonstrated this time and time again. They cut oil and gas and other related jobs as soon as they take office. Forcing thousands of Americans out of work. This hikes up gas prices and sends us towards inflation.
While I feel for the people in the Ukraine, what's going on over there, it's no difference from the Cuban missile crisis. We have no business interfering with the business of Russia. Those waterways are the central source of commerce for them. It was totally irresponsible for the Ukrainian government not to consider that.
The Trump Administration will bring life back to America.
The Harris "administration" represents politics as usual. A bunch of lining "BS." They say the Trump Administration will raise taxes. What they're not saying is that with those higher taxes comes higher income. They will lower your taxes because you will have lower income.
72644297 : 3v1 and trump still managed to win
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