Stocks up as Trump picks VP in generational shift

Vance, 39, is nearly four decades younger than Trump, 78. Powell says data raise confidence inflation on path to 2%.

Stocks rose as wild volatility calls failed to materialize after Donald Trump’s assassination attempt bolstered his chances of taking over the White House. He tapped JD Vance as his running mate.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an all-time high. Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. soared 31%. Conservative video-sharing platform Rumble Inc. jumped 21%. Trump’s rising odds of victory boosted oil producers, gun makers and private prisons. His pro-cryptocurrency stance lifted the industry. Tesla Inc. rallied as Elon Musk endorsed Trump. Solar firms sank as Democrats are seen as more friendly toward the sector.

Vance is 39, nearly four decades younger than Trump, 78, offering a fresh voice to Republican efforts to bolster their appeal to the working-class workers who were once a bedrock of the Democratic party in battlegrounds such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. 

“The decision is crucial because one-third of US presidents throughout American history have previously occupied the position of vice president,” said Tom McLoughlin at UBS Global Wealth Management. “Moreover, in this instance, Trump’s decision effectively anoints Vance as his successor in terms of delivering a populist message to a younger generation of voters.” 

The S&P 500 topped 5,630. Apple Inc. hit a fresh high. The Russell 2000 of smaller firms added almost 2%, notching the best four-day run since 2020. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. climbed on a surge in profits. Macy’s Inc. sank after ending buyout talks. US 30-year yield rose above the two-year one for the first time since January. The dollar edged up. 

Traders also kept an eye on Jerome Powell, who said recent data has provided more confidence inflation is heading to target.

The chances of Trump winning a second term rose in the aftermath of Saturday’s shooting, according to PredictIt data.

“We were shocked by the attempt on former President Trump’s life, but suspect that markets will digest the news quickly and with little fanfare,” said John Stoltzfus at Oppenheimer Asset Management. “Shocking events tend not to deter investors, who we expect will remain focused on economic and earnings results.”

To Mark McCormick at TD Securities, markets seem “less fussed about elections” and much keener to enjoy the slide in US data surprises, especially the latest consumer-price index reading.

“Everyone is passing around their favorite Trump trades — but I think we’ve seen over the past century that stock market moves are more random than what a president can dictate,” said Peter Boockvar at The Boock Report.

Election years are typically good for stocks, and barring major market mishaps such as the dotcom bust or the great financial crisis, the S&P 500 tends to notch robust gains. In fact, the benchmark has risen in almost every election year since 1960, with the exception of 2000 and 2008. That record has improved further in recent years. In the three election years since 2008 — 2012, 2016, 2020 — the benchmark index rose at least 10%.

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