Strong earthquake on the US super-large stock “M7”! Apple is out, new members?

moomooニュース米国株 wrote a column · Jan 16, 2024 17:34

Seven high-tech companies known as the US super-large stock “M7” recorded remarkable performances last year, but as of this yearLight and dark are separated。 $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$Is3.3% increase year to dateI'm doing it, but $Apple (AAPL.US)$Amid growing concerns about growth3.4% decline。 $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Since the beginning of this year, it has only risen for 1 day (as of 1/16),Decrease of 11% or more year to dateThen, the total market value fell by just over 94 billion dollars. On the other hand, $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$Entering this monthAn increase of approximately 11%Then, the total market value expanded by approximately 128 billion dollars.

Strong earthquake on the US super-large stock “M7”! Apple is out, new members?

There are probably not many investors who anticipate that the seven high-tech companies will reproduce the dramatic rise of last year for 2024. This is because the 7 major companies recorded returns like last yearAt least for the first time since 1999Furthermore, the same 7 stocks occupied the top of the S&P 500 in a rowOnly once in the past. There may be a big difference in the returns of these major high-tech companies in the future.

From a portfolio point of viewThere isn't much point in concentrating investment on 7 US high-tech companies. These are excessively concentrated in the three sectors of information technology, communication services, and general consumer goods, and are too muchnot distributedit's for. Therefore, BARRON'S (Barons), the most famous weekly investment magazine in the US,“Center for rapidly growing large stocks”、“Diversified across multiple industries”、“Increase your exposure to the defensive”With that as the axis,This year's US superlarge stock “M7” was selected。

With this new US superlarge stock “M7,” 2023'sMaintain the majority of the 7 US high-tech companies (Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, NVIDIA)、Exclude Apple, Meta and Tesla. instead $Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$、 $UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$、 $Visa (V.US)$will be added.

“Our US superlarge stock M7 (Magnificent Seven) still has a high share of rapidly growing technology companies, but we are adding exposure to other sectors of the economy and stock market. It is difficult to surpass last year's performance, but with economic support and the rise in US stocks spreading beyond the 7 US high-tech companies, major corporate groups will be able to win again this year,” said Nicholas Jasinski of Barons.

Mike Bailey of FBB Capital Partners said, “The US economy is strong, but there are probably many investors considering reviewing their portfolios in early 2024 in order to prepare for the volatility associated with prolonged economic uncertainty. Also, I don't know if a recession will come or not, so I want to make diversified investments and have a firm hold on defensive stocks and growth stocks,” he said. In particular, we recommend excellent companies that have expanded their market share compared to competitors, achieved growth, surpassed earnings forecasts, and raised performance guidance.

Berkshire Hathaway, suitable for diversifying investments

Led by Warren Buffett $Berkshire Hathaway-A (BRK.A.US)$is a major company with the highest market capitalization, and in 2024Suitable for diversifying investments. The company invests not only in the insurance business, but also in industry and utilities. In the bullish scenario for 2024, the insurance business continues to recover, and operating profit is growing in other parts of the portfolio. Furthermore, on the Berkshire balance sheetI have 150 billion dollars in cashBecause,The profit ratio of the stock price is about 19 times, which is a reasonable levelIf you think it's in Mr. Buffett'sinvestsYaCompany stock buybacksYou can also look forward to the possibility. Berkshire Hathaway was in the top 7 by market capitalization in 2022.

A visa that combines both growth potential and defensive ability

$Visa (V.US)$It boasts competitive advantages, economies of scale, and a strong business with extremely high profit margins. 2024 and beyond10% in terms of sales、Continue to grow 13-15% with EPSIt is expected. It is a mechanism where processing costs do not increase even if the amount of settlement increases on the Visa network, and profits can be obtained with almost every payment made with a credit card or debit card. What is the current stock price of Visa24-year forecast PER 26 times or lessThat's (the average over the past 5 years is 30 times higher). To the US super-large stock “M7”Combines both growth ability and defensive abilityIt is useful for getting through the more unstable 2024.

Can United Health be expected to rise

It was one of the “top 7” of the S&P 500 in 2022 $UnitedHealth (UNH.US)$It has industry-leading scale in commercial insurance and Medicare Advantage plans. According to the factset, according to analyst predictions, United Health'sSales are growing at an annual rate of about 10%Then, it is expected to reach 532 billion dollars by 2027. A stock buyback is underway,EPS is growing at an annual rate of about 14%Then, it is expected to be around $28 by 2027.

Can the sharp rise in NVIDIA stocks be repeated?

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$The background to the rise at the beginning of the year is the main announcements at CES 2024, the start of mass production of China-specific chips, and strong free cash flow. Demand for the company's GPUs far exceeds supply, so it will end in JanuarySales this year's momentum has more than doubledthat's it. For analysts, sales and EPS are respectively57%with69%It is expected to grow. According to BofA analyst Vivek Arya, NVIDIA will run from 2024 to 2025$100 billion in free cash flowIt is predicted that it will be created, and in the meantimeAbout one-third is a stock buybackTo, what is the restBusiness growth such as M&AThere is a possibility that it will be used Furthermore, despite the fact that NVIDIA's stock price has skyrocketed,Pretty cheap at 26.8 times the expected PERIt looks like. This is at least close to the lower end of the range for the past 5 years, and is well below 40 times the average for the same period. Furthermore, Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon recently reported that NVIDIA sharesLower than the Philadelphia Semiconductor Stock Index for the first time in about 10 yearsI pointed out that it has become.

Expensive apples, concerns about slowing growth

Apple's annual rate for the next 2 years8.2%Profits grew at a pace of, and annual sales grew at an average annual growth rate (CAGR)5%It is expected to increase. Analysts, on the other hand, $Alphabet-C (GOOG.US)$with $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ofEPS and sales growth rates are much higherIt is predicted, but these stocksIt is traded at a much lower PER than Apple. Even the S&P 500 is until 2025EPS and sales are growing faster than AppleIt is expected that will happen. It is traded at 19.3 times by weighted average of the 2024 EPS forecast consensus, which is far lower than Apple's PER of 27 times.

Will 24 be a tough year for Tesla

Due to supply disruptions in the Red SeaProduction stopped at the German plant, Hertz, a major US car rental companySale of 20,000 EVs, including Tesla、Price cuts in China、Wage increases at the entire rice plantIt has been exposed to a storm of news that is a headwind for the company, etc. Furthermore,There is a high possibility that this situation will continue for the time being. Ivana Delevska, Chief Investment Officer of Spear Invest, said”EVs are experiencing a cyclical downturn, and intensifying competition is making it worse” he said. Macroeconomic uncertainty at the moment, slowing investment by competitors, slowing demand, etc. $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Although it is an unfavorable environment for them, there is a possibility that Tesla will continue or strengthen its leadership in the EV market as a result of a slowdown in investment by competitors in the long run.

Is it difficult for meta to rise?

Analysts said that in addition to having a big election this year, $Meta Platforms (META.US)$We believe that there is a possibility that the expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) functions to advertising products will boost sales,The return of rising costs、CEO's stock sale、Slight room for increase from current pricesThere is a possibility that it will reduce the superiority of meta.

ー MooMoo News Sherry
Source: Barrons, Dow Jones, Markets Insider, Seeking Alpha
This article uses automatic translation for some of its parts

Disclaimer: Moomoo Technologies Inc. is providing this content for information and educational use only. Read more

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kozkoz : Apple leaves and Berkshire Hathaway comes in. Most of Berkshire's holdings are Apple

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181338057犬心久美子 : Another... six months. I'd like to see how things go.
I was longing for Berkshire Hathaway
One A course share is 10 to 20 million yen
I want to be able to buy more in a wide range
B-course stocks were also sold later, weren't they?
So I incorporated Berkshire and made it a famous pattern
Funds are the best. As a true god of investment
I respect you, but after all, what is my policy
I don't think so.
Apple and Tesla are slightly concerned about the M7, but I don't know the future of the stock, but it's an imperative rule.
Stay still before you lament. I'm sorry to Mr. Holder
Rather, it's going up like a rocket
I'm worried about the heating feeling on NVIDEA
No... if you step through the steps, it will go even higher
It might be a process.
M7 is also a giant galaxy,
Because their research and technology are different
We can't always have them all.
Since it gets the most attention in the world, mass media and media from various countries also report and write ironically. Maybe the best time to buy is when you're not excited
I don't know

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181338057犬心久美子 181338057犬心久美子 : Thank you to everyone who liked it.

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