The strong hedge remains, wait and see Nvidia's earnings report.

Opened a bull spread put position on QQQ last week $Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ.US)$ and SPY. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY.US)$ After the rise in large cap and technology stocks today, there was a slight loss, but I do not intend to stop loss. I believe that the risk of the large cap market still exists in the medium term.

I hold technology stocks nvidia $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ and upst $Upstart (UPST.US)$ Continue to sell covered call for protection/preparing to sell stocks, with amzn's strike price at 129, expiring at the end of next month. If it drops to around 132, I will consider selling more stocks downward, if I can't sell them, I'll keep moving them lower as it drops more. The current position is relatively small, and amzn's fundamentals are not a big issue, so I'm not worried in the long run.

There may be a rate cut at the end of this year to early next year. By that time, the price of tlt $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT.US)$ will have a lot of room for price increase. So, do not dwell on the short-term trend of tlt, it has a high opportunity cost, only long-term holding can make money, and the effect of hedging the black swan it brings is like a gift. A 10%-20% tlt position is sufficient.

nvidia had a good rise today, but I will not buy options to bet on the financial report. There are three reasons:

1. The implied volatility is too high. The post-report implied volatility crush will likely result in losses even if the direction is correct. The likely scenario is: only a small portion of the near-the-money call/put options will be profitable, while all the others will incur losses.

The risk-reward ratio of betting on volatility is also poor. If you buy the most profitable atm straddle, the stock price must fluctuate by at least 40 points to possibly make a profit, and the profit will be very limited, with an overall delta of about 0.2-0.4. And for selling straddles/strangles, if the script of the last earnings report is repeated, a 200% loss is looming.

Setting aside emotional factors, companies in the AI application layer have not brought good products/stories, so nvidia's upside potential is limited.

If you hold nvidia stocks $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ , my suggestion is to sell on rallies. If you're not afraid of risks, sell an otm call with a delta of around 0.2 expiring this week. Even if it goes up after earnings, both the options and the underlying stock are likely to be profitable. When selling covered calls, the higher the delta of the call itself, the lower the risk. The exercise date can range from expiring this week to two months later, depending on your prediction of the future stock price trend and whether there is a financial pressure to sell quickly.

Wishing everyone can make money, those who invest for the long term can buy good stocks, and friends who trade short term intraday can capture every trend.

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TridentRodent

记录自己的投资。不构成投资建议。

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